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Gold Price Back Above $1,700, Oil Price Correcting Gains
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Gold price started a decent recovery and climbed above $1,720. Crude oil price traded to a new yearly high at $67.81 before correcting lower.
Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil
- Gold price found support near $1,680 and started a short-term recovery against the US Dollar.
- There was a break above a major bearish trend line at $1,700 on the hourly chart of gold.
- Crude oil price extended its rally and it traded to a new multi-month high near $67.81.
- Recently, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line at $64.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
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Gold price formed a strong support base above the $1,680 level against the US Dollar. As a result, there was a decent recovery wave above the $1,700 and $1,705 resistance levels.
There was also a break above a major bearish trend line at $1,700 on the hourly chart of gold. It opened the doors for a move above the $1,720 level. The price even cleared the $1,730 level and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average.
A high is formed near $1,740 on FXOpen and the price is currently correcting lower. There was a break below the $1,730 level. The price is now testing the $1,720 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average.
There is also a connecting bullish trend line with support near $1,721 on the same chart. If there is a downside break below $1,720, the price could revisit $1,700. Any more losses might call for a test of the $1,680 support.
On the upside, an initial resistance is near the $1,730 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,740 swing high to $1,719 low.
The first major resistance is near the $1,735 level. The 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,740 swing high to $1,719 low is also near $1,735. A convincing break above $1,730 and $1,735 might open the doors for a push above the $1,740 and $1,750 levels.
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GBP/USD Correcting Gains, EUR/GBP is Facing Key Resistance
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GBP/USD is facing resistance near 1.4000 and it is correcting gains. EUR/GBP is consolidating above 0.8550 and it could start a decent increase if it clears 0.8600.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP
- The British Pound is struggling to settle above the 1.4000 resistance zone.
- There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.3925 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
- EUR/GBP is forming a strong support base above 0.8550 level.
- There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line at 0.8575 on the hourly chart.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
After a sharp rally, the British Pound failed to stay above 1.4100 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair declined and it even settled below the 1.4000 support zone.
It even dived towards the 1.3800 level and broke the 50 hourly simple moving average. Recently, there was a strong upward move above the 1.3900 level, but the pair struggled to clear the 1.4000 resistance zone.
https://i.postimg.cc/8PdXr0bM/gbpusd-chart-2.png
A high is formed near 1.4004 on FXOpen before the pair dipped again. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.3925 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
It traded as low as 1.3862 before recovering higher. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4004 high to 1.3862 low.
However, the pair is facing resistance near the 1.3950 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4004 high to 1.3862 low is also acting as a resistance.
The main resistance is still near 1.4000, above which the pair could rally again. On the downside, the 1.3900 level is a decent support. The next major support sits near the 1.3850 level, below which the pair could slide towards the 1.3800 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.3720 support zone.
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Rising Yields Put Pressure on the Fed at Wednesday’s Meeting
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The main event of the week for financial markets is the Fed’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Besides the regular statement, the Fed will reveal its economic projections, and the market will focus on the dots plot that shows the federal funds rate forecast for the next three years.
The event is particularly important for traders because the dollar is at crossroads. If the Fed signals a liftoff before 2024, the markets will take it as a hawkish signal that would trigger a wave of dollar buying. On the other hand, if the dots plot do not show any increase until 2024, the Fed signals its willingness to keep accommodative conditions despite the recent fiscal stimulus.
Challenges for the Fed
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The big challenge for the Fed comes from the long-term yields, which rose recently. While the move higher is insignificant on the long-term charts, it does signal an unwanted tightening of financial conditions.
Moreover, the move higher in the yields generated a dollar rally at the end of February, tempered only by the new round of fiscal stimulus from Biden’s administration. Should the yields rise further, the investors may turn their attention to the dollar again. Yields typically rise during the economic recovery, and the new fiscal stimulus package leads to faster recovery.
Ahead of Wednesday’s meeting, the dollar remains offered – the EURUSD is back above 1.19, the AUDUSD is above 0.77, and the GBPUSD trades close to 1.40. If the Fed hints at no rate hike until 2024, the dollar may take another dive. On the other hand, if the Fed is pressured by the rising yields and hints at a rate hike as early as 2023, the dollar may rally, sending the EURUSD below its recent 1.1840 support.
All in all, traders are guaranteed to see high volatility and quick price action as the Fed unveils its economic projections.
FXOpen Blog
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February 2021 TOP 10 PAMM Accounts Overview
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Although the winter is over, the early spring has not made things much brighter around the world. However, PAMM account managers continue to trade actively, adapting their strategies to the changing market. Investors’ goals are still the same — they want to invest their money in the most promising PAMM accounts with minimum risk and maximum profit.
On March 1, 2021, FXOpen launched a new round of “Money Managers” competition, where participants can not only show their skills in PAMM account management but also win up to 5,000 USD in prizes. Registration is open until May 1.
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BTC and XRP – Support found
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BTC/USD
The price of Bitcoin has fallen today to $53,548 at its lowest point from which we have seen an increase of 5.4% as a minor recovery was made to $56,388. Currently, the price is sitting at $55,893 as a pullback is being made but the price is still in an upward trajectory overall.
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Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price has fallen back to the 0.382 Fibonacci level measured from the upward impulse from the start of the month to its new all-time high made on the 13th of March. This could be and most likely is the 4th wave out of the five-wave impulse to the upside from the next starting impulse wave to the upside. If that is true, then the price cannot fall inside the territory of the 1st wave which would be below the 0.5 Fib level at $52,361.
Now as we have seen a bounce off of the significant horizontal level at $54,497 it could mark the completion of this 4th wave which is why the increase seen today would be the 1st sub-wave of the next move to the upside that is set to push the price of Bitcoin above its prior all-time high an on to the new one. However, this has to be validated as the price could now be headed further down. The point of validation would be an increase above the 0.236 Fib level or the invalidation if the price continues moving below the 0.382 support.
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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro is Facing Hurdles
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EUR/USD started a fresh decline after it failed to surpass 1.2000. EUR/JPY is correcting gains and it is likely to struggle near the 130.00 zone.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY
- The Euro topped near the 1.2000 level and started a fresh decline.
- There is a key declining channel forming with resistance near 1.1930 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
- EUR/JPY tested the 130.50 and recently declined to test the 129.50 support.
- There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 129.65 on the hourly chart.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
Recently, the Euro made an attempt to climb above the 1.2000 resistance against the US Dollar, but it failed. The EUR/USD pair started a fresh decline and broke the 1.1960 support zone.
The pair even broke the 1.1945 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 1.1882 on FXOpen before the pair started consolidating losses. It climbed above 1.1900, but there was no bullish momentum.
https://i.postimg.cc/Fzd3BNgK/eurusd-chart-2.png
An initial resistance is near the 1.1915 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1951 high to 1.1882 low. The next major resistance is near the 1.1925 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.
There is also a key declining channel forming with resistance near 1.1930 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The channel resistance is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1951 high to 1.1882 low.
Therefore, the pair is likely to face a strong resistance near the 1.1925 and 1.1930 levels. A clear break above 1.1930 might start a fresh increase towards the 1.2000 resistance.
If not, there are chances of more losses in EUR/USD below the 1.1880 support zone. The next major support is near the 1.1850 level, below which the pair could dive towards the 1.1800 support level.
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LTC and EOS – At key pivot points
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LTC/USD
From Tuesday’s low at $192.55, the price of Litecoin has been on the rise again and came up to $208 at its highest point today, which was an increase of 8.4%. Currently, it is being traded at $204.34 as the minor pullback is being made but the price is still in an upward trajectory overall.
https://i.postimg.cc/SKd27sxt/ltcusd-1h-1.png
On the hourly chart, you can see that the price fell back to 0.382 Fibonacci level on Tuesday where it found support and bounce back to the upside. However, the recovery we have seen isn’t that significant which is why there is still a possibility that it is corrective in nature and is the part of the higher degree downfall that is set to push the price of Litecoin below the $200 area again.
All said is applicable on the higher time frame and could be viewed as a fractal, as from the start of the month we have seen a recovery that could be corrective and would lead to a lower low compared to the one made on the 28th of February. This is why now we could either be seeing the start of the 5t wave in a bullish scenario or the second sub-wave of the higher degree five-wave move to the downside.
The pivot point is the 0.382 Fibonacci level whose breakout to the downside would invalidate the bullish count, but today’s bounce from it indicates that it is still the main expected outlook.
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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Showing Signs of a Breakdown
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AUD/USD started a fresh decline from well above 0.7800 and declined below 0.7750. NZD/USD is also declining and it seems like it could break the 0.7150 support zone.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD
- The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.7820 and 0.7800 support levels against the US Dollar.
- There was a break below a couple of bearish continuation patterns near 0.7800 and 0.7755 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
- NZD/USD declined sharply after it failed to surpass the 0.7270 resistance area.
- There is a crucial bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7160 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
After a decent upward move above 0.7800, the Aussie Dollar faced sellers near 0.7850 against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair traded as high as 0.7848 on FXOpen and recently started a fresh decline.
There was a break below a few important supports near 0.7800. There was also a break below a couple of bearish continuation patterns near 0.7800 and 0.7755 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
https://i.postimg.cc/7hVg0Pdx/audusd-chart.png
The pair even broke the 0.7780 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low is formed near 0.7724 on FXOpen and the pair is currently struggling to recover. An initial resistance on the upside is near the 0.7753 level.
It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7848 high to 0.7724 low. The next major resistance is near the 0.7770 level or the 50 hourly simple moving average.
The main resistance is forming near the 0.7785 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7848 high to 0.7724 low is also near 0.7785. If there is no recovery above 0.7770 or 0.7785, there is a risk of more losses.
An initial support is near the 0.7725 level. If there is a downside break below 0.7725 and 0.7710, the pair could accelerate lower. In the stated case, it could even decline below 0.7700 and test 0.7650.
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GBP/USD Struggles Below 1.3900, USD/CAD Could Extend Gains
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GBP/USD started a fresh decline after it failed to surpass the 1.4000 resistance. USD/CAD is rising and it is showing a lot of positive signs above the 1.2800 level.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD
- The British Pound started a fresh decline after it was rejected near the 1.4000 area.
- There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 1.3910 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
- USD/CAD traded towards the 1.2375 support zone before starting an upside correction.
- There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2455 on the hourly chart.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
This past week, the British Pound made another attempt to clear the 1.3990 and 1.4000 resistance levels against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair failed to gain strength and started a fresh decline below the 1.3950 support zone.
There was a clear break below the 1.3920 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break below the 1.3850 support level. Moreover, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 1.3910 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
https://i.postimg.cc/CM95xZ3q/gbpusd-chart-3.png
The pair traded as low as 1.3817 on FXOpen and it is currently consolidating losses. An initial resistance on the upside is near the 1.3850 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3959 high to 1.3817 low.
The first major resistance is near the 1.3880 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3959 high to 1.3817 low is also near 1.3880 level.
The main resistance is now forming near 1.3910 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A successful close above the 1.3880 and 1.3900 levels could open the doors for a decent increase in the coming sessions.
Conversely, the pair might continue to move down below the 1.3820 and 1.3800 support levels. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a push towards the 1.3740 support level.
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Crude Oil Price Drops from the Highs, But Bullish Pressure Remains
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One of the most spectacular market rallies this year formed on the oil market. After the dip below the zero level in April 2020, the price of oil rallied to $68 in March 2021.
The move higher comes in line with rising global demand as the global trade volume reaches pre-pandemic levels. However, the price of oil is higher now than the pre-pandemic levels and triggers expectations of higher inflation ahead.
Oil and Inflation – Why Should Traders Care?
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The problem with higher oil prices is that they trigger higher inflation expectations. As such, central banks are forced to intervene because they all use inflation as part of their mandate. More precisely, higher inflation above a central bank’s target leads to the central bank rising the interest rates. Hence, the currency market is the first one to be impacted by a move in the price of oil. Because traders try to anticipate the moves well ahead, the volatility in the currency market increases with the volatility in the oil market.
Last week’s drop of over 7% on a single trading day spooked some investors, but the price of oil found strong support at the $60 level. Moving forward, the focus shifts to the OPEC+ meeting scheduled at the start of April.
While the global oil demand increased in the last months as more economies reopen after lockdowns generated by the pandemic, there is still room to go. At current levels, demand is still less than pre-pandemic levels, so the price of oil may make new highs if the supply does not meet demand.
Speaking of supply, if OPEC does not increase production in the second quarter of the year, the risk is that the price of oil will make new highs. The vaccination pace in advanced economies is strong enough to trigger rapid economic recovery, creating a positive environment for further advances in the price of oil.
FXOpen Blog
