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EUR/USD Reverses Gains While USD/JPY Aims Higher
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EUR/USD is correcting lower and trading below 1.0800. USD/JPY is rising and might aim more upsides if it stays above the 130.20 support.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY
- The Euro started a downside correction from the 1.1035 resistance zone.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0750 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
- USD/JPY is attempting a fresh increase above the 131.00 support zone.
- There was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near 130.00 on the hourly chart.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
This past week, the Euro gained pace above the 1.0950 resistance against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.1000 and 1.1020 resistance levels.
However, the pair failed to surpass the 1.1035 level. A high was formed near 1.1033 and the pair started a fresh decline. There was a clear move below the 1.0950 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average.
EUR/USD Hourly Chart
https://i.postimg.cc/1R0y8YRK/eurx.jpg
The pair even broke the 1.0850 support level. A low is formed near 1.0670 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a move above the 1.0700 level.
On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.0750 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0750 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The trend line is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1033 swing high to 1.0670 low.
The next major resistance is near the 1.0800 level. An upside break above 1.0800 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might visit 1.0850 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1033 swing high to 1.0670 low.
Any more gains might send the pair towards 1.0920. If not, it could continue to move down. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.0700 level. The first major support is near the 1.0670 level.
The main support sits near the 1.0650 zone, below which the pair could start a major decline. In the stated case, the pair might dive towards the 1.0520 support zone.
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Bitcoin values decline as major exchange halts Dollar transfers
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The now rather infamous 'crypto winter' which referred to the latter part of 2022 had appeared to show some signs of subsiding recently.
After many months of relatively low and somewhat stagnant cryptocurrency values, some of the more popular digital currencies had begun to make a little bit of headway over the first few weeks of 2023.
By the end of January 2022, it looked as though the value of many of the most popular cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, were emerging from the doldrums and beginning to make a resurgence in value, with Bitcoin hitting $23,783 on January 30.
Of course, this is a far cry from the $60,000 ballpark which Bitcoin reached in 2021, but considering the under-$20,000 range it has been languishing in for a few months, it is a considerable upturn in fortunes.
However, since yesterday, Bitcoin has been declining in value once again, going from $23,380 during the night (1.15am UK time) to $23,159 by 11.00am UK time today.
That is a 66 point decrease in value, 0.28% in percentage terms, which may not seem a large movement, but it does represent a downturn of considerable monetary value, putting an end to the climbing values.
It could be that accessibility may be a factor, as Binance, one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges announced yesterday that will suspend U.S. dollar withdrawals and deposits for international customers beginning today, resulting in a significant capital outflow from Binance and Bitcoin withdrawal figures going up overall.
Binance stated that it remained 'net positive' after the withdrawal run took place, however such a rush to divest from an exchange in one go means that actual trading volume in Bitcoin would likely be affected, which may also be contributing to the lower values today.
Binance has stated that this suspension of US dollar transactions is temporary, but of course any action which causes a mass withdrawal of assets from a trading venue is always likely to affect overall trading volume.
So, whilst overall Bitcoin is being viewed through a bullish lens, largely because of the US Federal Reserve bank's latest less aggressive rate hike of just 25 basis points, which helped Bitcoin to maintain its rising trajectory and outperform as compared to other asset classes, any action affecting trading in which a mass withdrawal takes place is likely to have some effect.
It may be temporary, and if so, volatility is definitely on its way back to the crypto market.
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Gold Price Turns Red And Crude Oil Price Could Correct Gains
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Gold price is moving lower and trading below $1,880. Crude oil price is facing a strong resistance near the $79 zone and might correct lower.
Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil
- Gold price started a strong decline below the $1,900 level against the US Dollar.
- It traded below a key rising channel with support near $1,872 on the hourly chart of gold.
- Crude oil price started a fresh increase from the $72.50 support zone.
- There is a connecting trend line forming with resistance near $79.10 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
Gold price struggled to stay above the $1,950 level against the US Dollar. The price started a strong decline and traded below the $1,920 support zone.
The bears even pushed the price below $1,900 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Recently, there was a break below a key rising channel with support near $1,872 on the hourly chart of gold. The price traded below the $1,865 level.
Gold Price Hourly Chart
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A low is formed near $1,859 on FXOpen and the price is now consolidating losses. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the $1,870 level.
The stated level is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,890 swing high to $1,859 low. The next key hurdle is near the $1,875 level or the 50 hourly simple moving average.
The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,890 swing high to $1,859 low is also near the $1,875 level. A clear upside break above the $1,875 resistance could send the price towards $1,890.
An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,858 level. The next major support is near the $1,850 level, below which there is a risk of a larger decline. In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,832 support zone.
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Watch FXOpen's February 6 - 10 Weekly Market Wrap Video
In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.
- British Pound hits the deck as Western markets raise interest rates
- After a long decline, Tesla leads the charge as EV stocks are back in vogue
- On the state of the US economy
- Natural gas prices are nearing new lows of the year
Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-QnYikpA_8
FXOpen YouTube
Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenuk #weeklyvideo
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GBP/USD Could Extend Losses, USD/CAD Breaks Key Support
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GBP/USD is showing bearish signs below the 1.2150 resistance. USD/CAD traded below the 1.3400 support, which might now act as a resistance.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD
- The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2200 resistance zone.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2065 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
- USD/CAD is struggling below the 1.3420 and 1.3400 support levels.
- There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support near 1.3380 on the hourly chart.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The British Pound started a fresh decline from well above 1.2400 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair gained bearish momentum after there was a break below the 1.2250 support.
The pair even broke the 1.2150 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The recent swing high was formed near 1.2193 on FXOpen before the price started another decline. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1961 swing low to 1.2193 high.
GBP/USD Hourly Chart
https://i.postimg.cc/vm2T8sQ8/gbpx.jpg
It is now trading below 1.2050 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2065 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
An immediate resistance is near the 1.2060 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.2100 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 1.2200 barrier in the near term.
If not, the pair could continue to move down and might even break the 1.2040 support. The next major support is near 1.2000 or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1961 swing low to 1.2193 high.
If there is a downside break, GBP/USD might test the 1.1960 support. The next major support sits at 1.1850, where the bulls might take a stand.
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British Pound and Euro head for 1 month low against US Dollar
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The once-lacking volatility among major currencies is back again, and this time it is the remarkably steady US Dollar which is creating a gulf between itself and some of its peers on the other side of the Atlantic.
This morning, the US Dollar rose in value against the Euro and British Pound so significantly that it plunged the Euro and British Pound to sudden lows, with the Euro hitting its lowest value against the US Dollar in over a month, and the British Pound hitting its second lowest point in over a month against the greenback.
The sudden upsurge of the US Dollar against these two majors is quite fascinating, and demonstrates the US Dollar's continued strength despite the precarious economic and geopolitical circumstances that surround the United States.
This morning, the British Pound headed down to 1.20 against the US Dollar, and the Euro to 1.07.
The United States has been faced with similar economic challenges to those faced by Europe over the past two years, and in some cases has had greater difficulties such as higher inflation this time last year, before it subsided in November 2022, and even more stringent lockdowns and involvement in geopolitical instability than some parts of Europe.
Despite this, the US Dollar has held up extremely well, and now that the inflation level in the United States is back to 6.5% and has been for some momnths compared to double figures in the United Kingdom and Europe ranging from 10% in the western European nations to over 25% in some of the Baltic states which are European Union members, things continue to improve for the Dollar.
It may appear that the lower US inflation figure compared to that of Europe and that of the US a few months ago is a good thing, but this has caused higher costs for large corporations in the United States who have to continue to pay more for supplier contracts or to operate their subsidiaries in Europe, leading to lower revenue figures for many.
The US involvement in the ongoing Ukraine war is also a huge cost, and potentially destabilizing factor, however despite having spent over $100 billion on it, plus pledging to escalate the situation by sending more munitions and last week's revelation by an American investigative journalist that the Nord Stream explosion which occurred in November 2022 was allegedly the work of the US armed forces, the Dollar continues to grow.
Whether its overall stability compared to European and British currency is artificial, or whether the US economy is genuinuely less encumbered than that of mainland Europe or Britain is debatable - however this level of volatility in the light of such unusual times is of great interest within the currency markets.
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FTSE 100 hits 1-year high as 8,000 points is in sight
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Another exciting period for the FTSE 100 index is in full swing.
The basket of stocks, which consists of the 100 most prestigious and well capitalized publicly listed companies on London Stock Exchange, is once again heading for the stratosphere.
This morning, the FTSE 100 index is trading at 7,982.99, which represents its highest point in over one year, following a gradual climb which began some four months ago, with only a minor slowing in mid-December which soon gave way to the consistent climb gaining momentum once again.
Over the course of 12 months, the FTSE 100 has increased in value by an 499 points, which is a steady 5.9%, proving that whilst across the Atlantic in New York, the tech stocks listed on NASDAQ are less steady or reliable than the old-school array of mining, pharmaceutical, transport and retail stocks listed on London's FTSE 100.
Old tech appears to be performing better than new tech, if these recent months are anything to gauge it by.
On London's stock exchange, perhaps one of the most ubiquitous sectors is the telecommunications industry, which is well represented within the FTSE 100 index given that Britain is home to some long standing corporate giants, once again alluding to the 'old tech' nature of this particular index. In that regard, Vodafone's stock has risen after Liberty Global has acquired a 4.9% stake, giving a substantial lift to the index.
As the opening bell rang in London, things were on the up and by 9.00am the blue-chip index was at 7,993.23, up 45.63 points (0.57%) putting it within touching distance of the 8,000 mark.
Despite clear signals from economists that inflation is not showing any signs of slowing, and with Britain dealing with a real inflation figure of around 10.5%, the economy is growing and wage inflation appears to be in line with price inflation.
Yes, there are high interest rates, and the economic issues concerned around that would potentially be a weakening of access to private home ownership, therefore denting the overall prosperity of the nation, but London's stock exchange is made up of firms that do not become affected by such overall circumstances.
For example, Coca-Cola HBC (the UK-based bottling firm which packages soft drinks) was in demand, having reported a strong year of organic growth. Retail products and foodstuffs will always be in demand regardless of overall economic circumstances such as high inflation or interest rates, whereas expensive electric trucks manufactured by companies with no provenance and listings on NASDAQ via the SPAC method of bypassing due diligence are not essential items with sales affected if the economic woes are too high.
Hence, NASDAQ has been suffering, especially in the electric vehicle stock and internet stock department, whereas the trad stocks of London are prosperous.
Should the 8,000 point barrier be crossed, this will mark a milestone for the London Stock Exchange's FTSE 100 index, similar to the euphoria surrounding its break through the 7,000 barrier in 2021 during the period of recessions, supply chain woes and ongoing draconian lockdowns hampering the economic situation, with the FTSE 100 being the beacon of light in a very dark tunnel.
Interesting times indeed.
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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 14th FEB 2023
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BTCUSD: The Evening Star Pattern Below $23432
Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bullish momentum last week and after touching a high of $22432 started to decline against the US dollar, touching a low of $21450 on 13th Feb.
We have seen a bearish opening of the markets this week.
We can clearly see the evening star pattern below the $23432 handle which is a bearish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of an uptrend and a shift towards a downtrend.
Bitcoin touched an intraday high of 21839 in the Asian trading session and an intraday low of 21683 in the European trading session today.
We can see the formation of a three black crows pattern in the weekly time frame indicating bearish trends.
The Ichimoku price is under the cloud in the 2-hour time frame indicating bearish trends.
Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term a decline in the prices is expected.
The RSI indicator is back under 50 in the 2-hour time frame indicating the bearish nature of the markets.
The relative strength index is at 48.77 indicating a NEUTRAL demand for bitcoin, and the shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.
Bitcoin is now moving below its 100 hourly simple moving average and below its 100 hourly exponential moving averages.
Some of the major technical indicators are giving a SELL signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 21000 and 20500.
The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility with a mildly bearish momentum.
- Bitcoin: bearish reversal seen below $23432.
- The commodity channel index is indicating a NEUTRAL level.
- The price is now trading just below its pivot levels of $21764.
- The short-term range is mildly bearish.
Bitcoin: Bearish Reversal Seen Below $23432
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The price of Bitcoin was unable to cross the $24K mark last week, and we can see a continuous fall in the levels now trading below the $22K handle.
As some of the technical indicators are also giving a neutral stance of the markets, we are expecting that a bullish reversal is possible after touching the $20500 level.
We have also detected the formation of bearish engulfing lines in the 30-minute time frame.
The MACD crosses down its moving average in the 15-minute time frame indicating the bearish nature of the markets.
We can see the formation of a bearish price crossover pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA20 in both the 30-minute and 2-hour time frames.
The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is mildly bearish, the medium-term outlook has turned bearish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.
Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $20027 at which the price crosses the 40-day moving average, and at $20937 at which the price crosses the 18-day moving average stalls.
The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic support level of 21703 and Fibonacci support level of 21502 after which the path towards 21000 will get cleared.
In the last 24hrs BTCUSD has increased by 0.57% by 122.76$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 21.364 billion. We can see an increase of 0.42% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.
The Week Ahead
Bitcoin is now facing the extended crypto winter due to which the prices are unable to rise above the $25000 level.
We are now heading towards the $21500 level this week.
The daily RSI is printing at 47.08 which indicates a NEUTRAL demand for bitcoin and the continuation of the bearish phase present in the markets in the short-term range.
We can see the formation of a bearish trend line from $23432 towards the $21576 level.
The price of BTCUSD is now facing its support zone located at $20884 which is a 38.2% retracement from a 13-week high.
The weekly outlook is projected at $21000 with a consolidation zone of $20500.
Technical Indicators:
The average directional index (14): It is at 28.57 indicating a SELL.
The ultimate oscillator: It is at 39.72 indicating a SELL.
The rate of price change: It is at -5.67 indicating a SELL.
Bull/bear power (13): It is at -1085.58 indicating a SELL.
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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.
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EUR/USD Could Extend Losses While USD/CHF Aims Higher
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EUR/USD is facing a strong resistance near the 1.0800 zone. USD/CHF is rising and might aim a clear move above the 0.9240 resistance zone.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF
- The Euro started a fresh decline from the 1.0800 resistance against the US Dollar.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0750 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
- USD/CHF started a fresh increase above the 0.9200 resistance zone.
- There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9240 on the hourly chart.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
After testing the 1.0650 support zone, the Euro started a steady increase against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair gained pace above the 1.0700 level to move into a bullish zone.
The pair even climbed above the 1.0750 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the bears were active near the 1.0800 resistance. It traded as high as 1.0804 on FXOpen and recently started a downside correction.
EUR/USD Hourly Chart
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There was a move below the 1.0750 level. There was a clear move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0655 swing low to 1.0804 high.
It is now trading above 1.0700 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.0710 level. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0655 swing low to 1.0804 high.
The next major support is near the 1.0690 level. A downside break below the 1.0690 support could start another decline towards the 1.0650 level.
An immediate resistance is near the 1.0730 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.0750 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0750 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
A clear move above the 1.0750 resistance zone could set the pace for a larger increase towards 1.0800. The next major resistance is near the 1.0850 zone.
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Apple stock maintains highs, flying in face of tech drop
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The dystopian reality that has plagued the stocks of large technology and internet companies which are listed on North America's most prestigious exchanges is now a few months long.
The overall decline in US tech stock values over a prolonged period compared to the buoyant baskets of 'old fashioned' stocks on the other side of the Atlantic is a clear indication that relative newcomers to a big cap market with little provenance are not necessarily that favorable among investors at the moment.
London's mining, entertainment, food production, telecommunications, construction, travel and retail stocks have held up well, despite being legacy industries, compared to the avantgarde internet giants and EV startups of Silicon Valley which are listed on NASDAQ and NYSE. Even Tesla has been losing value at the rate of a depleting battery over recent months.
There is one exception, however, and that is Apple.
Two days ago, Apple stock was at its highest point in over one month, and today, whilst that steady climb that has taken place during the past 30 days has begun to tail off, the value of Apple stock is still strong, finishing the New York session and beginning today's trading at $153.20.
Over the past month, Apple stock has been relatively volatile, however the overall upward direction demonstrates a 12.7% increase over its price this time one month ago, with the five-day moving average looking a little more volatile, with some sharp upward and downward movements having taken place during the past week. However, despite those sharp movements, the overall value has remained steady with only a 0.41% drop over the past five days.
Perhaps one of the factors that has made Apple stock stand out from the other big tech stocks which have experienced value decreases compared to Apple's increases is that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway investment company has increased its stake in Apple this week.
Berkshire Hathaway already had a very large steak in Apple, however the fund management company has now acquired Alleghany, which is an American insurance company which owned shares in Apple. As part of the takeover by Berkshire Hathaway, Alleghany's share in Apple was transferred to Bershire Hathaway.
Berkshire Hathaway's overall Apple stake, which includes around 20 million shares held by its New England Asset Management subsidiary, stood at 916 million shares or 5.8% of the company at the end of December last year, however the position was worth over $140 billion as of Tuesday's close, making it easily the most valuable holding in Berkshire's portfolio.
Warren Buffett is well known for his astute shrewdness and conservative attitude to risk, which puts his interest in Apple at a different end of the spectrum to those SPAC listings which took place 2 years ago where a gung-ho approach was taken and previously unknown companies with unproven products had suddenly become valued at tens of millions of dollars, only to decrease once the reality sets in.
Apple's reality is solid business and backing by one of the world's most prudent and astute fund managers. That difference is clear when looking at investor response.
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