Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

American Currency Adjusts Ahead of Jerome Powell’s Speech
https://i.imgur.com/hpZPysn.jpeg

A rather weak employment report, published late last week, contributed to the weakening of the American dollar. According to the published data:

• The unemployment rate in June increased to 4.1% (experts’ forecast: 4.0%);
• The actual number of new jobs was slightly higher than analysts predicted (206K vs 191K).

According to Bloomberg Economics experts, the US labour market is starting to slow down significantly, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates as early as the September meeting. It is quite possible that more clues about the Fed’s future monetary policy will be provided to market participants by the end of the week, as important press conferences and macroeconomic data releases are expected in the upcoming trading sessions.

USD/JPY
https://i.imgur.com/bkqmj73.png

Technical analysis of the USD/JPY pair indicates the possibility of a continued downward correction, as a "bearish engulfing" pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. The pattern can be considered partially worked out, as the price has decreased by more than 100 pips and has almost tested the significant support at 160.00 since it formed on the chart.

The price behaviour in the 160.30-159.80 range will demonstrate the sellers' strength. If the price consolidates below this range, the downward movement may resume with renewed vigour. Conversely, if the pair rises above 162.00, it could lead to the start of a new upward impulse.

The following events could impact the pair's price:

• Today at 17:00 (GMT +3): Speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell;
• Today at 17:00 (GMT +3): Speech by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Analysis of NZD/USD: The "kiwi" sharply fell after the central bank's decision
https://i.imgur.com/WUxSGpZ.jpeg

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.5% on Wednesday.

The decision to maintain the interest rate was anticipated. However, market participants noted a shift in the tone of the RBNZ's official statements. In May, the bank indicated that the tight policy would continue as long as necessary, but now it is open to easing the restrictive monetary policy if inflation slows down.

As a result, market participants are now considering the possibility of a nearer-term rate cut, which led to a decline in the New Zealand dollar relative to other currencies.

Specifically, against the US dollar, the "kiwi" fell by approximately 0.75%.

Will the decline continue as the situation develops?

https://i.imgur.com/IQmfQgk.jpeg

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Analysts Raise NVDA Forecasts, Stock Price Rises
https://i.imgur.com/Ab1TXMa.png

According to FactSet, in July, seven reputable analysts have raised their target prices for NVDA stock. KeyBanc analyst John Vinh, for instance, increased his target from $130 to $180 (approximately 33% above the current price).

Following these target increases, Nvidia's stock has risen, closing above the psychological level of $130 yesterday for the first time since June 20. Consequently, NVDA's price has increased by more than 160% since the start of the year.

Will Nvidia's rally continue?

The NVDA chart data raises doubts about the stock's ability to confidently set new historical highs as it did in the first half of the year.
https://i.imgur.com/hYltrh9.jpeg

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: EUR/USD Jumps, USD/JPY Bulls Seem Unstoppable
https://i.imgur.com/pV60dlP.png

EUR/USD is climbing higher above the 1.0800 level. USD/JPY surged above the 160.00 and 161.40 resistance levels.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a decent increase above the 1.0780 pivot level.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0820 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 160.50 and 161.40 levels.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 161.55 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
https://i.imgur.com/eVBpLdB.jpeg

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.0710 zone. The Euro cleared a few key hurdles near 1.0780 to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

The pair settled above the 1.0800 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. A high was formed at 1.0845 and the pair is now consolidating gains. There was a test of the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0710 swing low to the 1.0845 high.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Markets Awaiting US Inflation Data: What is the Probability of Trend Reversals?
https://i.imgur.com/Bpob1HW.png

The major currency pairs are in a holding pattern following the release of the latest US labour market data and Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress. The Fed Chair noted that the Federal Reserve has made "significant progress" in its mission to combat inflation, but emphasized the need for "more good data" before lowering interest rates. Judging by the movements of the major currency pairs, the market appears sceptical of the Fed Chair's statements:

• The AUD/USD pair has refreshed the May highs of the current year and strengthened above 0.6700.
• The USD/CAD pair is trading near strategic support at 1.3610.
• The GBP/USD pair is approaching the March highs near 1.2900.

As we can see, the US dollar is slowly but surely losing ground in many directions, but by the end of the week, existing trends could either slow down or change direction dramatically.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GBP/USD Hits Four-Month High Following GDP Growth News
https://i.imgur.com/jnUQGAf.png

day, the UK Office for National Statistics published data showing an increase in GDP.

According to Forex Factory:

→ A month ago, GDP was at 0.0% month-on-month;

→ This month, analysts had forecasted growth of 0.2%;

→ Actual growth reached 0.4%.

This news should be welcomed by the Labour Party, which has come into power with ambitious plans for economic development.

On the other hand, how will the Bank of England respond? The GDP growth might provide an argument for maintaining high interest rates for a longer period to ensure that fears of a new inflationary surge do not materialise.

As Bloomberg reports, markets currently assess the likelihood of a rate cut at the next Bank of England meeting on 1 August at just under 50%.

Financial markets reacted with a rise in the sterling's value against other currencies. The GBP/USD rate is at its highest level since early March.
Will the Growth Continue?

The GBP/USD chart shows that the price is in a rally, having risen by 1.7% since the beginning of July.

https://i.imgur.com/bJvDDxB.jpeg

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

PepsiCo Stock Rebounds from Yearly Low Ahead of Earnings Report
https://i.imgur.com/2kQm2OB.png

The PepsiCo stock chart indicates:

→ Yesterday, the price dropped below $161, setting a new low for 2024.

→ However, by the end of the trading day, the price rose above $163.3, closing near the day's high.

This bullish intraday behaviour might suggest positive sentiment emerging ahead of today's earnings report.

According to Dow Jones Newswires:

→ PepsiCo's management anticipates organic revenue growth of 4% and an 8% increase in earnings per share in 2024.

→ The consensus among analysts tracked by FactSet is a 3% rise in sales and a 7% increase in earnings.

PepsiCo's stock has fallen by 9% over the past two months. Investors are concerned that demand might suffer due to rising prices from inflation and the growing popularity of weight-loss drugs, which could curb people's cravings for snacks and sugary drinks.

https://i.imgur.com/y3Q6q4V.jpeg

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Eyes 1.3000 While EUR/GBP Struggles
https://i.imgur.com/u8wIYM6.jpeg

GBP/USD is gaining pace above the 1.2900 resistance. EUR/GBP declined and is now consolidating losses above the 0.8400 region.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2950.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2910 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8440 pivot level.
• There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near 0.8425 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
https://i.imgur.com/n9Jg4nB.png

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained well-bid above the 1.2750 level. The British Pound started a decent increase above the 1.2850 zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2900. The pair even climbed above 1.2925 and traded as high as 1.2949. Recently, there was a minor decline below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2775 swing low to the 1.2949 high, but the bulls were active above 1.29700.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Nasdaq 100 Index Fell Despite Positive Inflation News
https://i.imgur.com/Ot31ruC.png

Yesterday, Consumer Price Index (CPI) values were published, indicating a slowdown in the rate of inflation in the USA. According to ForexFactory:

→ CPI month-on-month: actual = -0.1%, forecast = 0.1%, previous month = 0.0%;

→ CPI year-on-year: actual = 3.0%, forecast = 3.1%, previous month = 3.3%.

The data confirming the slowdown in inflation raised expectations that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates as early as September. But why did the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) drop then? Yesterday, the tech stock index fell by over 2.1%, marking its worst day since early May.

The reason lies in rotation. Investors seem to have shifted their focus from the highly inflated tech stocks since the start of 2024 to other sectors. Approximately 400 companies in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) showed growth. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Wall Street 30 mini on FXOpen) closed in the green yesterday.

Bloomberg reports that Kelly Cox from Ritholtz Wealth Management believes this day could be a turning point for the markets. It also serves as a good reminder of the importance of diversification.

One of the drivers of yesterday's decline was NVDA shares, which fell by more than 5% in a day (we wrote about the bearish behaviour of Nvidia’s price and volumes just the day before).

What’s next?

The equal-weighted version of the S&P 500, where stocks like Nvidia have the same weight as Dollar Tree Inc., rose yesterday. This version of the index is less sensitive to the influence of large tech companies, making a case for the rally expanding to other stocks.

https://i.imgur.com/Ht7Mmzq.jpeg

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Analysis of USD/JPY: Was There an Intervention?
https://i.imgur.com/cklYYSd.png

Yesterday’s news of slowing inflation in the US sharply weakened the dollar, anticipating the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing. In the first 15 minutes after the data release:

→ EUR/USD rose by approximately 0.45% to the psychological level of 1.09;

→ GBP/USD increased by approximately 0.55%, reaching a 2024 high.

Conversely, USD/JPY fell, with a more aggressive movement. As the chart shows, the dollar weakened against the yen by about 1.8% in the first 15 minutes after the release. This suggests that amidst the US news, the Bank of Japan intervened to support its currency, which hadn’t fallen below 160 yen per USD since June 26.

Reuters reports that Tokyo’s chief currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, stated on Friday that authorities would take necessary measures in the currency market but declined to comment on whether they had intervened.

https://i.imgur.com/m0k2RHf.jpeg

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Watch FXOpen's 8 - 12 July Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, XAU/USD, NVDA Stock

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• GBP/USD Hits Four-Month High Following GDP Growth News
• Market Analysis: EUR/USD Jumps, USD/JPY Bulls Seem Unstoppable
• XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Price Falls from Six-Week High
• Analysts Raise NVDA Forecasts, Stock Price Rises

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

The Nikkei Index Has Risen To a Two-Month High
https://i.imgur.com/gT7pMAY.png

As we reported on 26th June, analysing the Nikkei 225 chart (Japan 225 on FXOpen):

→ The price is in a significant upward trend (shown by the blue channel);

→ The price may continue to rise along the median line.

Since then, the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) has increased by more than 6%, reaching a yearly high on 10th July above 42,500 points. The price particularly surged on 9-10 July, breaking resistance at 41,160 (formed from the previous peak at the end of March).

However, the bears made a strong comeback afterwards, pushing the price back to the 41,160 level. Thus:

→ Completely offsetting the gains from 9-10 July;

→ Forming a bearish engulfing pattern spanning 4 candles;

→ Prompting consideration that the breakout above 41,160 was false (a trap for bulls).

According to Reuters, bearish drivers included technology stocks such as Tokyo Electron, which saw a more than 6% decline in one day, following sell-offs in US technology stocks (as reported on 12th July).

Sentiment in the Japanese stock market is also influenced by risks of interventions by the Bank of Japan to support the yen.

https://i.imgur.com/4DL5Uqj.jpeg

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Insiders Are Selling Shares of Large Companies
https://i.imgur.com/dGf7Aei.png

Yesterday, the S&P 500 stock index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) set another historical high, closing near the 5650 level.

However, similar records are not observed on the charts of rally leaders from the first half of 2024 – NVDA's price is 8.6% below its historical high, MSFT is 3.1% lower, and GOOGL is 2.6% below its record.

And this isn't the only cause for concern. Insider sales, as indicated by reports to the SEC, could add to anxieties. For instance:

→ Bezos sold over $900 million worth of AMZN shares;

→ Nvidia board member Mark Stevens continues to sell NVDA shares, as does company CEO Jensen Huang.

According to Goldman Sachs, fund managers have increased their long positions in US stock index futures to record levels.

And according to a July survey of fund managers conducted by Bank Of America:

→ Market sentiment remains bullish amid expectations of a Fed rate cut and a soft landing for the economy;

→ Geopolitics now pose the biggest risk to markets, followed by inflation.

If professional market participants foresee further growth in the stock index, it might not be driven by shares of large companies.

On June 27, we discussed the bullish "cup and handle" pattern near the $190 level on the AMZN price chart. Since then, bulls have shown the ability to push the price towards the psychological level of $200, but they have not managed to sustain this success.

https://i.imgur.com/FCMo7TH.jpeg

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The EUR/USD Rate Set a 16-Week High
https://i.imgur.com/EPIjVqO.png

According to the EUR/USD chart, the euro to dollar exchange rate yesterday surpassed the peak from early June, rising above 1.092 – the last time the price was at this level was on March 21.

Bullish sentiments in the market were supported by:

→ Approaching Thursday's meeting of the European Central Bank – it is expected that interest rates will remain unchanged. However, attention will be focused on comments from its president Christine Lagarde regarding the timing of the next interest rate cut.

→ Expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September. As Reuters reports, Powell stated yesterday that economic indicators in the US for the second quarter "to some extent bolster the confidence" that inflation is returning to the target level in a sustainable manner.

As we mentioned in our analytical review of the EUR/USD chart on July 1:

https://i.imgur.com/lErlDHS.jpeg

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Poised For Fresh Gains
https://i.imgur.com/CBpykBP.png

AUD/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 0.6715 support. NZD/USD is also rising and could target the 0.6090 resistance.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar found support at 0.6715 and recovered higher against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6740 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is consolidating above the 0.6050 support.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6060 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis
https://i.imgur.com/7SH3Isj.jpeg

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above 0.6715. The Aussie Dollar started a decent recovery wave above the 0.6725 resistance against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6793 swing high to the 0.6714 low. However, the pair is still below the 50-hour simple moving average.

On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near the 0.6740 zone. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6740.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Dollar Corrected After a Sharp Decline. Will the Uptrend Resume?
https://i.imgur.com/LZRfesB.jpeg

A sustained decline in the core consumer price index in the US contributed to a sharp pullback in the American currency. The GBP/USD currency pair is trading near the psychological level of 1.3000, EUR/USD buyers are attempting to hold above 1.0900, and USD/JPY has lost over 300 pips in just two days. However, after the release of positive retail sales data yesterday, the dollar managed to recover some of its losses. Let's consider whether it is possible for the USD to resume its upward trend and what factors might influence this.

GBP/USD
https://i.imgur.com/k9EPu0W.png

The British currency strengthened sharply after the Labour Party's victory in the recent parliamentary elections. The slow but steady economic growth and reduction in political uncertainty are playing into the hands of the British currency: the GBP/USD pair is preparing to test the year's highs at 1.3140-1.3100.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD indicates the possibility of continued growth, as a “bullish engulfing” pattern was formed on the weekly timeframe after breaking through the resistance at 1.2850. The primary target for the upward movement is the range of 1.3140-1.3100. If pound buyers manage to hold above these levels, a rise to the strategic levels of 1.3600-1.3500 is possible. In the case of a drop below 1.2900, a downward correction towards 1.2870-1.2850 is likely.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

US Banks Set a Bullish Tone at the Start of Earnings Season
https://i.imgur.com/GUQzIrx.png

Company earnings reports for the second quarter will be a crucial driver of stock market movements in the coming weeks. Traditionally, the largest banks kick off the earnings season, and their performance indicators today are setting a bullish tone.

For example:

Bank of America (BAC), report published on 16th July:

→ Earnings per share: actual = $0.83, expected = $0.797;

→ Gross income: actual = $25.37 billion, expected = $25.22 billion;

Goldman Sachs (GS), report published on 15th July:

→ Earnings per share: actual = $8.62, expected = $8.35;

→ Gross income: actual = $12.73 billion, expected = $12.35 billion.

Other major banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC), have also surpassed analysts' expectations. Although following different trajectories, the stock prices of all the listed banks have generally been rising after the publication of their earnings reports.

Notably, the formation on the XLF chart is interesting – this is the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF, which is focused on the financial sector and includes the shares of the largest US banks. You can trade this ETF with FXOpen, taking advantage of CFD instruments.

https://i.imgur.com/qXwj0Y8.jpeg

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Analysis of XAU/USD: Gold Price Sets Historical Record
https://i.imgur.com/TbRVMGD.png

As the XAU/USD chart shows, on 16th July, the gold price rose above $2460 for the first time in history. The bullish sentiment is driven by:

→ Anticipation of Fed rate cuts, as the appeal of non-yielding bullion generally increases in low-interest-rate environments.

→ Geopolitical tensions, with an attempt on Trump's life possibly boosting demand for the "safe-haven asset."

→ Demand from central banks.

Reuters reports that analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia believe the gold price could exceed their forecast of $2500 per ounce by the end of 2024. "It is worth highlighting gold's ability to find support under any conditions this year," they say.

Can the gold price rise further?

https://i.imgur.com/Dc5EfiU.jpeg

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Analytical ECB Rate Predictions for 2024, 2025 and Beyond
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With the European Central Bank recently cutting interest rates for the first time since its hiking cycle began in 2022, many are wondering where the ECB’s policy rate may be headed next. This article provides an analysis of the projected ECB interest rates for 2024, 2025, and beyond, exploring the factors influencing these rates and offering insights into future economic conditions.

Current Eurozone Interest Rate Environment

As of June 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) has recently cut its interest rates for the first time since 2016, lowering the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%​​. The ECB’s current interest rate on the main refinancing operations is 4.25%. This decision comes after a series of substantial rate hikes implemented between mid-2022 and September 2023, which were necessary to combat the peak inflation observed during that period.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Commodity Currencies in Stable Ranges: Should We Expect a Breakout?
https://i.imgur.com/j1Qknen.jpeg

The currency pairs AUD/USD and USD/CAD, unlike the pairs with the Euro, Yen, and Sterling, continue to demonstrate long-term stability. These pairs have been trading in narrow price corridors for several months. Given the weakening of the dollar in many directions, there is a high likelihood of increased volatility and a breakout from the flat channels in commodity currencies.

USD/CAD
https://i.imgur.com/XbunoBY.png

Last week, the USD/CAD pair sharply rebounded from the significant support at 1.3600, forming a bullish "hammer" pattern. Technical analysis of the pair suggests a potential resumption of the upward movement if the buyers manage to consolidate above 1.3700. It is worth noting that the price is testing this level for the second time this week. The inability of dollar bulls to overcome this resistance could push the price back to 1.3600-1.3580.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Rises Above 1.3000 on Inflation News
https://i.imgur.com/OMgQjuO.png

As evidenced by the GBP/USD chart, yesterday the exchange rate rose above the psychological level of 1.3000 USD per pound for the first time in 12 months.

The strengthening of the British currency occurred after the release of inflation news. According to ForexFactory:

→ Year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI): actual = 2.0%, forecast = 1.9%, previous = 2.0%;

→ Year-on-year Core CPI: actual = 3.5%, forecast = 3.4%, previous = 3.5%.

Thus, analysts' expectations of a slowdown in inflation were not met, giving market participants a reason to believe that the Bank of England's tight policy would continue for a longer period, providing a bullish boost for the GBP.

However, in the second half of yesterday, the bears managed to “extinguish” all the progress from the bullish momentum. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the chart (shown with an arrow).

Moreover, bearish activity intensified this morning after the release of labour market news. The number of jobless claims (Claimant Count Change) filed in the previous month was 32.3K, whereas analysts had expected 23.4K.

This has clouded expectations regarding the future policy of the Bank of England – whether it will keep rates at the current high level of 5.25%, or start to reduce them.

In any case, the pound exchange rate fell below the psychological level of 1.3000 today, raising the possibility of a false bullish breakout. What can the chart suggest about whether this scenario will actually play out?

https://i.imgur.com/7Whb9RI.jpeg

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NVDA Stock Price Recovers After 1.5-Month Low
https://i.imgur.com/SLw6IxY.png

Yesterday, NVDA’s stock price fell to 116.61 – its lowest level since June 5th.

The bearish sentiment was triggered by Trump’s cautious remarks regarding the necessity to defend Taiwan from the threat of military action by China. The leading pre-election candidate suggested in a Bloomberg interview that the island should pay for US defensive support, leading to a drop in semiconductor manufacturers' stock prices: TSMC fell by 8%, and Nvidia shares dropped by 6.6% during yesterday's session, as its primary AI chip producer is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

However, today in pre-market trading, NVDA's price is recovering, rising above $120 per share. How might the situation develop further?

Let us recall that on 10th July, we wrote about strong seller pressure above the $130 per share level. Since then, the price has declined by approximately 9%.

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Analytical MSFT Stock Price Predictions for 2024, 2025–2030, and Beyond
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Understanding the future of Microsoft stock is crucial for anyone looking to trade or invest in this mega-cap giant. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of MSFT's price history, its analytical forecasts for 2024, Microsoft price target for 2025, and long-term projections up to 2030 and beyond, offering valuable insights into Microsoft's potential trajectory and the factors influencing its market performance.

Microsoft Price History

Microsoft Corporation went public on March 13, 1986, at an initial public offering (IPO) price of $21 per share. Adjusted for stock splits, that translates to $0.0601 in today's terms. The stock experienced a steady climb during the late 1980s and early 1990s, driven by the success of Windows operating systems and Office software. By the end of 1999, MSFT had surged to a high of around $36 per share, largely fueled by the dot-com boom.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

How To Trade Natural Gas: Tools and Approaches
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Natural gas trading presents unique opportunities due to its critical role in the global energy market and its inherent volatility. This article delves into the various strategies and tools traders can use to navigate natural gas CFDs, from fundamental and technical analysis to understanding market dynamics.

Overview of the Natural Gas Market

Made up of primarily methane, natural gas is a key fossil fuel that’s grown in use over the past two decades. It forms deep beneath the Earth's surface from the remains of plants and animals buried under layers of sediment and subjected to intense heat and pressure over millions of years. It’s typically found near oil reserves and must be extracted and processed before it can be used.

Natural gas is a relatively clean-burning energy source, at least compared to coal or oil. It plays a crucial role in the global energy sector, accounting for about 23% of energy consumption worldwide in 2023, according to Statista, and 33% of US energy consumption in 2022, according to the EIA.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

Market Analysis: Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Correct Recent Gains
https://i.imgur.com/hoqh2lx.png

Gold price started a downside correction from $2,485. Crude oil prices are also moving lower from the $82.20 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price climbed higher toward the $2,485 zone before there was a pullback against the US Dollar.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $2,450 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $81.30 support zone.
• A major contracting triangle is forming with resistance near $80.70 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis
https://i.imgur.com/HZOYmaK.jpeg

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price rallied heavily above the $2,425 resistance. The price even spiked above $2,480 before the bears appeared.

A high was formed near $2,483 before there was a downside correction. There was a move below the $2,465 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $2,450 support and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The price declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,391 swing low to the $2,483 high. If the bears remain in action, the price might decline further.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

META Price Is Holding Around a Key Support Level. But for How Long?
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According to TipRanks, the average target price for META, as forecasted by Wall Street analysts, is $537.41 (a 12.94% increase from current levels) over the next 12 months. However, not all analysts remain positive.

Craig Johnson, Chief Market Technician at Piper Sandler, issued a warning about the future of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, which include Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Alphabet Inc. (GOOG and GOOGL).

"These charts are reversing, and they need further correction," he said on CNBC's Last Call programme.

Indeed, the market is sending alarming signals regarding the leaders. Yesterday, we wrote about the increasing signs of bearish aggression on Nvidia's stock chart; today, we'll assess the price action of Meta Platforms Inc.

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USD/CAD Exchange Rate Approaches Key Resistance
https://i.imgur.com/xbsjzku.png

As the USD/CAD chart shows, the Canadian dollar has weakened against the US dollar over the week – today, the USD/CAD rate is near two-week highs.

According to Reuters, this has been influenced by:

→ the strengthening of the USD against other currencies;

→ the anticipation of retail sales data, which could affect the outlook for a potential rate cut by the Bank of Canada. The Retail Sales data will be released today at 15:30 GMT+3.

How might the Canadian dollar's exchange rate change against the “greenback”?

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Watch FXOpen's 15 - 19 July Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: US Banks Turn Bullish, GBP/USD, Gold Price, NVDA Stock

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• US Banks Set a Bullish Tone at the Start of Earnings Season
• GBP/USD Exchange Rate Rises Above 1.3000 on Inflation News
• Analysis of XAU/USD: Gold Price Sets Historical Record
• NVDA Stock Price Recovers After 1.5-Month Low

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Trims Gains While USD/CAD Rallies
https://i.imgur.com/x56BIXk.png

GBP/USD started a pullback from the 1.3050 zone. USD/CAD is rising and might aim for more gains above the 1.3735 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a downside correction from the 1.3050 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.2940 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CAD is showing positive signs above the 1.3700 support zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3720 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
https://i.imgur.com/RBlf3g9.jpeg

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to continue higher above the 1.3050 resistance zone. The British Pound started a downside correction and traded below the 1.3010 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even traded below 1.2970 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2900 level. A low was formed at 1.2900 and the pair is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3044 swing high to the 1.2900 low.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Is Confluence in Trading, and How Can You Use It?
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Confluence in trading involves the strategic alignment of multiple signals to validate trade decisions. This method is supposed to enhance the reliability of trade signals and allows traders to filter out low-probability outcomes. This article delves into the key components of confluence trading, its practical applications, implementation, and common mistakes.

Confluence: Definition in Trading

Confluence in trading refers to the alignment of multiple indicators or analysis tools to get stronger signals for decision-making. By combining various technical indicators, chart patterns, and support and resistance levels, traders can filter out low-probability setups and focus on higher-probability outcomes.

For instance, confluence can involve using a moving average crossover, a support level, and an RSI reading below 30 to identify a potential buying opportunity. This multi-faceted approach helps validate the trade signal and potentially increases the likelihood of favourable outcomes​.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

How Did MSFT Stock Price React To Global Outage?
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On 19th July, a global outage occurred. Numerous computers running Windows worldwide experienced "blue screens of death" (BSOD), affecting companies in different sectors, including airlines, hospitals, media, banks, and others.

The outage was caused by a CrowdStrike's Falcon Sensor update, a component of the Windows system that essentially works to protect computers from cyber threats. CrowdStrike quickly acknowledged the issue, stating that it was not a cyberattack but an update error, and suggested a solution.

According to CNBC, the large-scale outage did not significantly impact the operation of most financial markets. Representatives of the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq stated on Friday that they were operating despite the issues with the CrowdStrike update. The only noticeable unpleasant consequence for most was the inability to calculate the Russell stock indices, including the popular Russell 2000. However, the confusion was resolved later on Friday.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Is a Global Macro Strategy, and How Do Traders Use It in Trading?
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A global macro strategy is a comprehensive investment and trading approach that includes analysis of economic, political, and global trends to make decisions. This article delves into the core components, analytical tools, and practical applications of global macro strategy, providing a detailed outline for understanding and implementing this sophisticated trading method.

Understanding Global Macro Strategy

Global macro strategy is an investment and trading approach that focuses on the analysis and interpretation of economic and political events on a global scale.

This strategy is typically employed by hedge funds and mutual funds, which take positions based on macroeconomic principles and geopolitical developments, including interest rates, currency movements, and political changes. However, many individual traders also opt for this approach, but it typically requires a deep understanding of the global economic system and the interrelated factors that drive markets.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

Analysis of XAU/USD: Gold Price Falls for 4 Consecutive Days
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As shown on the XAU/USD chart, Monday, 22 July marked the fourth consecutive day of declining gold prices. The change from the historical peak reached on Wednesday is around -3.5%.

Bearish sentiment is driven by:

→ Market participants' assessment of prospects due to the change of the Democratic Party's presidential candidate in the US.

→ Caution in anticipation of economic news. On Thursday at 15:30 GMT+3, US GDP data will be released. On Friday at the same time, the Core PCE Price Index data will be published.

Market participants may also be influenced by the psychological level of $2500.

Can the Gold Price Fall Further?

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR and GBP Retreat from Key Levels
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Financial and currency markets are experiencing one shock after another. The steady decline in US inflation, a potential Fed rate cut, and the current US president’s exit from the election race have led to sharp fluctuations in almost all currency pairs. Last week:

• The GBP/USD pair traded above the psychological level of 1.3000;
• USD/JPY sellers pushed the price below 156.00;
• The EUR/USD currency pair updated its May highs of the current year at 1.0920. Currently, we are observing corrective pullbacks from recent impulses. The news coming out this week will provide more clues about the development of current trends.

GBP/USD
https://i.imgur.com/gw97CYl.png

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Tesla Report May Strengthen Bullish Sentiment
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President Joe Biden withdrew his bid for a second term in the White House on Sunday. It's reasonable to assume that the stock market responded optimistically to this news, as US stocks closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) rising by 1.08% to 5,564.41 – its best day since 5th June. CNN Money's Fear and Greed Index showed an improvement in overall market sentiment, moving into the "Greed" zone.

TSLA stocks showed even more positive momentum, gaining 5.15% yesterday.

Recall that on 2nd July we noted that the TSLA price:

→ Was still within a descending channel (shown in red);

→ But was showing strong momentum, having crossed the median of the red channel and forming an ascending channel (shown in blue).

Since then, the TSLA price has:

→ Surpassed the upper boundary of the descending channel, breaking out of the downward trend it had been in since late 2021;

→ Continued to form a bullish channel, reaching its upper boundary last week.

https://i.imgur.com/1AOv58G.jpeg

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

How Can You Trade Using Order Flow? 3 Trading Strategies
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Understanding the intricacies of order flow trading unlocks the door to deeper market insights, revealing not just the movements of prices but the forces driving them. In this FXOpen article, we’ll explore how order flow works, its components, and how it can be used within three comprehensive trading strategies.

Understanding Order Flow Trading
Understanding order flow in trading involves examining where buy and sell orders might rest in the market. Essentially, it's about understanding the action behind price movements rather than just the movements themselves. At its core, order flow reveals where traders are placing their orders and at what price, offering a glimpse into the potential future direction of the market based on the current levels of buy and sell orders.

When traders talk about order flow, they're looking at the accumulation of these orders at various price levels, which can indicate areas of strong buying or selling pressure.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

Market Analysis: EUR/USD Trims Gains While USD/CHF Regains Strength
https://i.imgur.com/EelqyE3.png

EUR/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.0900 support. USD/CHF is rising and might aim a move toward the 0.9000 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0950 resistance and declined against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0870 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF is showing positive signs above the 0.8900 resistance zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.8910 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
https://i.imgur.com/ckMS0Rb.jpeg

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to clear the 1.0950 resistance. The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0900 support against the US Dollar.

The pair declined below the 1.0875 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0840 level. A low was formed at 1.0841 and the pair is now consolidating losses. The pair is showing bearish signs, and the upsides might remain capped.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0896 swing high to the 1.0841 low at 1.0855.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

How Will the BoC's Decision Affect the Currency Market?
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The USD/CAD pair has been strengthening for the third consecutive week and is currently approaching the upper boundary of the three-month range of 1.3850-1.3600. The strength of the pair's buyers is quite significant, which could lead to a consolidation above 1.3850 and a continued rise towards the psychological level of 1.4000. However, the news background for the upcoming trading sessions is so saturated that it could lead to either a strengthening of the current trends or the formation of reversal patterns:

• today at 16:45 (GMT+3) the release of the US Services PMI for July;
• today at 16:45 (GMT+3) the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision;
• today at 17:00 (GMT+3) the Bank of Canada’s press conference;
• today at 17:00 (GMT+3) the release of US New Home Sales data for June.

Experts surveyed by Reuters suggest that the Canadian regulator will not only cut the rate by 0.25% at today’s meeting but may also announce two more rounds of rate cuts by the end of the current year.

Technical analysis of the USD/CAD pair indicates the possibility of further growth, as the “hammer” pattern formed on 11th July remains relevant on the daily timeframe. In the event of a rebound from 1.3850, a corrective decline to 1.3760-1.3730 is possible.

https://i.imgur.com/BrGvHqh.png

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Brent Crude Oil Price Is Declining Amid De-Escalation in the Middle East
https://i.imgur.com/5gt9zKr.png

On 8th July, we noted that oil prices were forming a large narrowing triangle, originating from 2022-2023, with its upper boundary being a significant resistance point.

As shown on the Brent oil price chart (XBR/USD), bulls have since failed to overcome the upper boundary resistance around $87. Subsequently, the price:

→ turned downwards, breaking the blue upward trend line;

→ eventually breached the support level at $84, which we highlighted on 8th July;

→ Formed a descending channel (indicated in red).

Bearish sentiment is driven by:

→ news of increased oil inventories;

→ reduced tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that an agreement with Hamas on hostage release is "maturing."

https://i.imgur.com/nu7MiGI.jpeg

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.