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Gold Price Back Above $1,700, Oil Price Correcting Gains
https://i.postimg.cc/mgwsFtsg/Gold-p...il-price-2.jpg
Gold price started a decent recovery and climbed above $1,720. Crude oil price traded to a new yearly high at $67.81 before correcting lower.
Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil
- Gold price found support near $1,680 and started a short-term recovery against the US Dollar.
- There was a break above a major bearish trend line at $1,700 on the hourly chart of gold.
- Crude oil price extended its rally and it traded to a new multi-month high near $67.81.
- Recently, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line at $64.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
https://i.postimg.cc/L8RSXjGW/gold-price-chart-1.png
Gold price formed a strong support base above the $1,680 level against the US Dollar. As a result, there was a decent recovery wave above the $1,700 and $1,705 resistance levels.
There was also a break above a major bearish trend line at $1,700 on the hourly chart of gold. It opened the doors for a move above the $1,720 level. The price even cleared the $1,730 level and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average.
A high is formed near $1,740 on FXOpen and the price is currently correcting lower. There was a break below the $1,730 level. The price is now testing the $1,720 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average.
There is also a connecting bullish trend line with support near $1,721 on the same chart. If there is a downside break below $1,720, the price could revisit $1,700. Any more losses might call for a test of the $1,680 support.
On the upside, an initial resistance is near the $1,730 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,740 swing high to $1,719 low.
The first major resistance is near the $1,735 level. The 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,740 swing high to $1,719 low is also near $1,735. A convincing break above $1,730 and $1,735 might open the doors for a push above the $1,740 and $1,750 levels.
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GBP/USD Correcting Gains, EUR/GBP is Facing Key Resistance
https://i.postimg.cc/X76Dqb9n/gbp-usd.jpg
GBP/USD is facing resistance near 1.4000 and it is correcting gains. EUR/GBP is consolidating above 0.8550 and it could start a decent increase if it clears 0.8600.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP
- The British Pound is struggling to settle above the 1.4000 resistance zone.
- There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.3925 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
- EUR/GBP is forming a strong support base above 0.8550 level.
- There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line at 0.8575 on the hourly chart.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
After a sharp rally, the British Pound failed to stay above 1.4100 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair declined and it even settled below the 1.4000 support zone.
It even dived towards the 1.3800 level and broke the 50 hourly simple moving average. Recently, there was a strong upward move above the 1.3900 level, but the pair struggled to clear the 1.4000 resistance zone.
https://i.postimg.cc/8PdXr0bM/gbpusd-chart-2.png
A high is formed near 1.4004 on FXOpen before the pair dipped again. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.3925 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
It traded as low as 1.3862 before recovering higher. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4004 high to 1.3862 low.
However, the pair is facing resistance near the 1.3950 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4004 high to 1.3862 low is also acting as a resistance.
The main resistance is still near 1.4000, above which the pair could rally again. On the downside, the 1.3900 level is a decent support. The next major support sits near the 1.3850 level, below which the pair could slide towards the 1.3800 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.3720 support zone.
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Rising Yields Put Pressure on the Fed at Wednesday’s Meeting
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The main event of the week for financial markets is the Fed’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Besides the regular statement, the Fed will reveal its economic projections, and the market will focus on the dots plot that shows the federal funds rate forecast for the next three years.
The event is particularly important for traders because the dollar is at crossroads. If the Fed signals a liftoff before 2024, the markets will take it as a hawkish signal that would trigger a wave of dollar buying. On the other hand, if the dots plot do not show any increase until 2024, the Fed signals its willingness to keep accommodative conditions despite the recent fiscal stimulus.
Challenges for the Fed
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The big challenge for the Fed comes from the long-term yields, which rose recently. While the move higher is insignificant on the long-term charts, it does signal an unwanted tightening of financial conditions.
Moreover, the move higher in the yields generated a dollar rally at the end of February, tempered only by the new round of fiscal stimulus from Biden’s administration. Should the yields rise further, the investors may turn their attention to the dollar again. Yields typically rise during the economic recovery, and the new fiscal stimulus package leads to faster recovery.
Ahead of Wednesday’s meeting, the dollar remains offered – the EURUSD is back above 1.19, the AUDUSD is above 0.77, and the GBPUSD trades close to 1.40. If the Fed hints at no rate hike until 2024, the dollar may take another dive. On the other hand, if the Fed is pressured by the rising yields and hints at a rate hike as early as 2023, the dollar may rally, sending the EURUSD below its recent 1.1840 support.
All in all, traders are guaranteed to see high volatility and quick price action as the Fed unveils its economic projections.
FXOpen Blog
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February 2021 TOP 10 PAMM Accounts Overview
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Although the winter is over, the early spring has not made things much brighter around the world. However, PAMM account managers continue to trade actively, adapting their strategies to the changing market. Investors’ goals are still the same — they want to invest their money in the most promising PAMM accounts with minimum risk and maximum profit.
On March 1, 2021, FXOpen launched a new round of “Money Managers” competition, where participants can not only show their skills in PAMM account management but also win up to 5,000 USD in prizes. Registration is open until May 1.
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BTC and XRP – Support found
https://i.postimg.cc/8kRDrmP3/btc.jpg
BTC/USD
The price of Bitcoin has fallen today to $53,548 at its lowest point from which we have seen an increase of 5.4% as a minor recovery was made to $56,388. Currently, the price is sitting at $55,893 as a pullback is being made but the price is still in an upward trajectory overall.
https://i.postimg.cc/L6vpx4P3/btcusd-1h-2.png
Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price has fallen back to the 0.382 Fibonacci level measured from the upward impulse from the start of the month to its new all-time high made on the 13th of March. This could be and most likely is the 4th wave out of the five-wave impulse to the upside from the next starting impulse wave to the upside. If that is true, then the price cannot fall inside the territory of the 1st wave which would be below the 0.5 Fib level at $52,361.
Now as we have seen a bounce off of the significant horizontal level at $54,497 it could mark the completion of this 4th wave which is why the increase seen today would be the 1st sub-wave of the next move to the upside that is set to push the price of Bitcoin above its prior all-time high an on to the new one. However, this has to be validated as the price could now be headed further down. The point of validation would be an increase above the 0.236 Fib level or the invalidation if the price continues moving below the 0.382 support.
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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro is Facing Hurdles
https://i.postimg.cc/QtncmH7P/Euro-EUR.jpg
EUR/USD started a fresh decline after it failed to surpass 1.2000. EUR/JPY is correcting gains and it is likely to struggle near the 130.00 zone.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY
- The Euro topped near the 1.2000 level and started a fresh decline.
- There is a key declining channel forming with resistance near 1.1930 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
- EUR/JPY tested the 130.50 and recently declined to test the 129.50 support.
- There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 129.65 on the hourly chart.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
Recently, the Euro made an attempt to climb above the 1.2000 resistance against the US Dollar, but it failed. The EUR/USD pair started a fresh decline and broke the 1.1960 support zone.
The pair even broke the 1.1945 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 1.1882 on FXOpen before the pair started consolidating losses. It climbed above 1.1900, but there was no bullish momentum.
https://i.postimg.cc/Fzd3BNgK/eurusd-chart-2.png
An initial resistance is near the 1.1915 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1951 high to 1.1882 low. The next major resistance is near the 1.1925 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.
There is also a key declining channel forming with resistance near 1.1930 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The channel resistance is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1951 high to 1.1882 low.
Therefore, the pair is likely to face a strong resistance near the 1.1925 and 1.1930 levels. A clear break above 1.1930 might start a fresh increase towards the 1.2000 resistance.
If not, there are chances of more losses in EUR/USD below the 1.1880 support zone. The next major support is near the 1.1850 level, below which the pair could dive towards the 1.1800 support level.
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LTC and EOS – At key pivot points
https://i.postimg.cc/0NPKwmPw/ltc-1.jpg
LTC/USD
From Tuesday’s low at $192.55, the price of Litecoin has been on the rise again and came up to $208 at its highest point today, which was an increase of 8.4%. Currently, it is being traded at $204.34 as the minor pullback is being made but the price is still in an upward trajectory overall.
https://i.postimg.cc/SKd27sxt/ltcusd-1h-1.png
On the hourly chart, you can see that the price fell back to 0.382 Fibonacci level on Tuesday where it found support and bounce back to the upside. However, the recovery we have seen isn’t that significant which is why there is still a possibility that it is corrective in nature and is the part of the higher degree downfall that is set to push the price of Litecoin below the $200 area again.
All said is applicable on the higher time frame and could be viewed as a fractal, as from the start of the month we have seen a recovery that could be corrective and would lead to a lower low compared to the one made on the 28th of February. This is why now we could either be seeing the start of the 5t wave in a bullish scenario or the second sub-wave of the higher degree five-wave move to the downside.
The pivot point is the 0.382 Fibonacci level whose breakout to the downside would invalidate the bullish count, but today’s bounce from it indicates that it is still the main expected outlook.
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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Showing Signs of a Breakdown
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AUD/USD started a fresh decline from well above 0.7800 and declined below 0.7750. NZD/USD is also declining and it seems like it could break the 0.7150 support zone.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD
- The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.7820 and 0.7800 support levels against the US Dollar.
- There was a break below a couple of bearish continuation patterns near 0.7800 and 0.7755 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
- NZD/USD declined sharply after it failed to surpass the 0.7270 resistance area.
- There is a crucial bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7160 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
After a decent upward move above 0.7800, the Aussie Dollar faced sellers near 0.7850 against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair traded as high as 0.7848 on FXOpen and recently started a fresh decline.
There was a break below a few important supports near 0.7800. There was also a break below a couple of bearish continuation patterns near 0.7800 and 0.7755 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
https://i.postimg.cc/7hVg0Pdx/audusd-chart.png
The pair even broke the 0.7780 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low is formed near 0.7724 on FXOpen and the pair is currently struggling to recover. An initial resistance on the upside is near the 0.7753 level.
It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7848 high to 0.7724 low. The next major resistance is near the 0.7770 level or the 50 hourly simple moving average.
The main resistance is forming near the 0.7785 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7848 high to 0.7724 low is also near 0.7785. If there is no recovery above 0.7770 or 0.7785, there is a risk of more losses.
An initial support is near the 0.7725 level. If there is a downside break below 0.7725 and 0.7710, the pair could accelerate lower. In the stated case, it could even decline below 0.7700 and test 0.7650.
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GBP/USD Struggles Below 1.3900, USD/CAD Could Extend Gains
https://i.postimg.cc/XNrXWKzW/GBPUSD-Cable.jpg
GBP/USD started a fresh decline after it failed to surpass the 1.4000 resistance. USD/CAD is rising and it is showing a lot of positive signs above the 1.2800 level.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD
- The British Pound started a fresh decline after it was rejected near the 1.4000 area.
- There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 1.3910 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
- USD/CAD traded towards the 1.2375 support zone before starting an upside correction.
- There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2455 on the hourly chart.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
This past week, the British Pound made another attempt to clear the 1.3990 and 1.4000 resistance levels against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair failed to gain strength and started a fresh decline below the 1.3950 support zone.
There was a clear break below the 1.3920 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break below the 1.3850 support level. Moreover, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 1.3910 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
https://i.postimg.cc/CM95xZ3q/gbpusd-chart-3.png
The pair traded as low as 1.3817 on FXOpen and it is currently consolidating losses. An initial resistance on the upside is near the 1.3850 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3959 high to 1.3817 low.
The first major resistance is near the 1.3880 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3959 high to 1.3817 low is also near 1.3880 level.
The main resistance is now forming near 1.3910 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A successful close above the 1.3880 and 1.3900 levels could open the doors for a decent increase in the coming sessions.
Conversely, the pair might continue to move down below the 1.3820 and 1.3800 support levels. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a push towards the 1.3740 support level.
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Crude Oil Price Drops from the Highs, But Bullish Pressure Remains
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One of the most spectacular market rallies this year formed on the oil market. After the dip below the zero level in April 2020, the price of oil rallied to $68 in March 2021.
The move higher comes in line with rising global demand as the global trade volume reaches pre-pandemic levels. However, the price of oil is higher now than the pre-pandemic levels and triggers expectations of higher inflation ahead.
Oil and Inflation – Why Should Traders Care?
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The problem with higher oil prices is that they trigger higher inflation expectations. As such, central banks are forced to intervene because they all use inflation as part of their mandate. More precisely, higher inflation above a central bank’s target leads to the central bank rising the interest rates. Hence, the currency market is the first one to be impacted by a move in the price of oil. Because traders try to anticipate the moves well ahead, the volatility in the currency market increases with the volatility in the oil market.
Last week’s drop of over 7% on a single trading day spooked some investors, but the price of oil found strong support at the $60 level. Moving forward, the focus shifts to the OPEC+ meeting scheduled at the start of April.
While the global oil demand increased in the last months as more economies reopen after lockdowns generated by the pandemic, there is still room to go. At current levels, demand is still less than pre-pandemic levels, so the price of oil may make new highs if the supply does not meet demand.
Speaking of supply, if OPEC does not increase production in the second quarter of the year, the risk is that the price of oil will make new highs. The vaccination pace in advanced economies is strong enough to trigger rapid economic recovery, creating a positive environment for further advances in the price of oil.
FXOpen Blog
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BTC and XRP – Correction possibly over
https://i.postimg.cc/d1CXsXfS/btc-xrp.jpg
BTC/USD
The price of Bitcoin has been moving sideways from the 17th of March when it came up to $59,600 until the 20th when it paid another revisit to those levels. However, after a failure to break the $60,000 mark to the upside we have seen a rejection that caused a breakout from the symmetrical triangles and a low to $52,924.
https://i.postimg.cc/d0ppKv5y/btcusd-1h-3.png
Now we are seeing a minor recovery with the price currently being traded at $54,528 and has bounced nicely forming a V shape. The descending move was a five-wave impulse which is why we could have seen the completion of the WXY correction.
In that case, the price is now making its first attempts to establish an uptrend as the 1st wave from the next impulsive wave to the upside started. However, there could still be a possibility of another lower low to the significant $51,940 level.
If we have seen the completion of the 4th wave correction, then the price of Bitcoin is now headed towards the new all-time high, potentially in the zone between $72,000 and $68,000.
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EUR/USD Turns Red, USD/JPY Is Correcting Gains
https://i.postimg.cc/zGHzjZFv/Euro-EUR.jpg
EUR/USD started a fresh decline and traded below the key 1.1880 support zone. USD/JPY is correcting gains and it is now trading below the 108.80 support.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY
- The Euro failed to continue higher above 1.1950 and started a fresh decline.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1915 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
- USD/JPY started a downside correction from well above the 109.00 level.
- There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 108.65 on the hourly chart.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the past few days, the Euro struggled to gain bullish momentum above 1.1950 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair formed a swing high near 1.1946 on FXOpen and recently started a fresh decline.
There was a break below a few important supports near the 1.1890 and 1.1880 levels. The pair even settled below the 1.1880 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.1836 and the pair is currently consolidating losses.
https://i.postimg.cc/W4R2YW5n/eurusd-chart-3.png
An initial resistance is near the 1.1860 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1946 swing high to 1.1836 low.
The first major resistance is now forming near the 1.1890 and 1.1880 levels. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1946 swing high to 1.1836 low is also near 1.1891. Moreover, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1915 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
Therefore, the pair must clear 1.1880 and 1.1920 to start a strong increase in the coming sessions. Conversely, the pair could continue to move down below the 1.1836 low. The first major support is near the 1.1820 level.
If there is a downside break below the 1.1820 support, the pair could dive towards the 1.1750 support in the near term. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.1715 support level.
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LTC and EOS – Decrease seen but for how long?
https://i.postimg.cc/QM0fbPfF/ltc-1.jpg
LTC/USD
From the start of the week, the price of Litecoin has been in a decline, coming from its Monday’s high at $197.68 to $170.92 at its lowest point today, which was a decrease of 13.53% It is now stabilizing around $173 after a steep downfall made from yesterday when the price decreased by 12.7% as the price recovered close to the levels of Monday’s high before moving to the downside again.
https://i.postimg.cc/C15m6N2m/ltcusd-1h-2.png
Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the bearish count has been validated in which from the start of March we have seen an ABC correction to the upside. In that case, the descending move from the 13th of March is the 3rd wave from the higher degree correction and is now forming as a five-wave move. It appears that could end very soon around the 0.618 Fibonacci level at tje $167 area, but there would be a possibility that the descending might continue to the 0.786 one.
This is because by projecting the length of the first wave from the higher degree correction when the price of Litecoin was $245 and went to $155, we come up with a price target of $143.
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Gold Price Stuck Below $1,750, Oil Price Facing Hurdles
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Gold price started consolidating in a range above the $1,720 support. Crude oil price is now trading below $60.00 and $60.50 resistance levels.
Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil
- Gold price is trading in a range above the $1,720 support against the US Dollar.
- There are two connecting bearish trend lines forming with resistance near $1,738 on the hourly chart of gold.
- Crude oil price is holding the key $57.50 and $57.40 support levels.
- There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $59.80 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
https://i.postimg.cc/L4jB50rK/gold-price-chart-2.png
Gold price made an attempt to surpass the $1,750 resistance against the US Dollar, but it failed. As a result, there was a fresh decline, but the bulls were active above the $1,720 support.
It seems like the price is forming a strong support base above the $1,720 zone. The recent low was formed near $1,722 on FXOpen before the price started an upward move. It broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,745 swing high to $1,722 low.
An immediate resistance is near the $1,730 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The next key resistance is near the $1,733 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,745 swing high to $1,722 low.
There are also two connecting bearish trend lines forming with resistance near $1,738 on the hourly chart of gold. To start a strong increase, the price must clear trend lines and $1,740.
The main resistance is still near $1,750, above which the price could start a strong rally. Conversely, the price could fail to continue higher and it might decline below the $1,725 level.
The main support is near the $1,720 zone. A clear break below the $1,720 support may possibly start a strong decline towards $1,700 or even $1,680 in the near term.
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GBP/USD and GBP/JPY: British Pound Eyes Additional Gains
https://i.postimg.cc/5thpnXqP/GBPUSD-Cable-Sterling.jpg
GBP/USD found support near 1.3670 and it is now correcting higher. GBP/JPY is rising and it remains supported for more gains above 150.00
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY
- The British Pound declined below 1.3800, but it found support near 1.3670 against the US Dollar.
- There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3740 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
- GBP/JPY is trading nicely above the 105.00 and 105.20 resistance levels.
- There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 149.20 on the hourly chart.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
This past week, the British Pound saw a bearish wave below the 1.3850 support zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3720 support level.
However, the pair found support near the 1.3670 zone. A low was formed near 1.3670 on FXOpen and the pair recently started a fresh increase. It broke the 1.3700 and 1.3720 resistance levels.
https://i.postimg.cc/qq0wHWFy/gbpusd-chart-4.png
There was also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3740 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair is now trading nicely above the 1.3750 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.
It is testing the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.4001 high to 1.3670 low. The first major resistance on the upside is near the 1.3825 level.
The next major resistance is near 1.3835 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.4001 high to 1.3670 low. A clear upside break above the 1.3825 and 1.3835 resistance levels could open the doors for a larger increase.
If there is a fresh decline, the previous resistance near 1.3740 or the 50 hourly simple moving average might provide support. If there are additional losses, the pair could decline towards the 1.3700 level.
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Strong Dollar Breaks the Reflation Theme – All Eyes on the U.S. Yields
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2020 proved to be a challenging year for currency traders looking to forecast how the U.S. dollar will react to the pandemic. The Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) immediately lowered the fed funds rate to the lower boundary (i.e., close to zero) and vouched to leave it there for as long as necessary.
On top of that, the Fed restarted the quantitative easing program, buying bonds to lower the yields on the short and long end of the curve. Furthermore, it opened USD swap lines with other central banks in the advanced world to provide liquidity and advert the strong dollar theme.
It worked.
The dollar initially appreciated as the world looked for safety in the face of the pandemic, but then the Fed’s plan entered into effect. Slowly at first, more aggressively after, the dollar started to lose ground across the dashboard.
Everything appreciated in dollar terms – the euro, the Australian dollar, the British pound, equities, and commodities alike. The bearish trend on the dollar was so strong that all investment houses forecasted an even lower dollar in 2021.
https://i.postimg.cc/SRThsbbB/ing.jpg
They were right.
The so-called reflation trade, where U.S. equities advance, the dollar declines, and risk-on dominates, was the theme for most of the first quarter of the year. However, the dollar started to show some strength recently on the back of a faster economic recovery, impressive vaccination campaign, and a U.S. administration that delivers.
What’s Next for the U.S. Dollar?
As we head into the second quarter of the year, the dollar trades with a mixed tone. On the one hand, it gained against the euro since the year started.
At the start of January, the EURUSD pair traded above 1.23, and last Friday closed below 1.18. Because the euro has the biggest weight in the dollar index, the move lower in the EURUSD exchange rate led to a reversal in the DXY.
https://i.postimg.cc/BbQ34Qk5/img7.jpg
Gold made a new all-time high in 2020 – it traded above $2,000 last summer but is in retreat ever since. It is barely holding above $1,700 at the moment, and fears of higher inflation in the United States and the developed world are not enough to fuel a rally in the yellow metal.
The problem for the reflation trade and gold comes from the fixed-income market. The U.S. yields are rising, and whenever this happened in the past, gold weakened.
Put it simply, rising yields mean that investors flee the safety of bonds in search of higher returns in riskier assets. Effectively, it means that confidence is back and, thus, gold suffers as investors do not look for protection anymore.
Higher yields also bode well for the dollar. Hence, before betting on a lower dollar, investors should first monitor the fixed-income market and interpret where the yields will go.
All in all, the second quarter will be extremely interesting. If the yields continue to rise, the dollar will have a hard time weakening.
FXOpen Blog
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BTC and XRP – Looking bullish
https://i.postimg.cc/Kzwr5Nc6/btc-xrp.jpg
BTC/USD
The price of Bitcoin has been on the rise since the 25th of March when it fell to $50,420 level. From there a recovery of 17.38% was measured to its highest point so far at $59,236. Currently, it is being traded slightly lower but is still on an upward trajectory.
https://i.postimg.cc/sXv4S8zP/btcusd-1h-4.png
The low on the 25th was the end of the corrective stage in which the price was since the 13th of March and as the third wave ended we have seen the start of the next impulsive move to the upside.
As its first wave looks like it has already developed now we could be already seeing the start of 3rd sub-wave from the five-wave impulse. The price would be now expected to continue moving upward above its last all-time high and potential somewhere around $68,000-$72,000 zone.
It is still soon to project the ending point so we are going to watch closely how the price action develops and reevaluate our projection accordingly. There could be a possibility that we are seeing an even higher degree impulse wave, increasing the room for growth.
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EUR/USD Dives, USD/CHF Likely To Continue Higher
https://i.postimg.cc/rF1r1p2F/EURUSD.png
EUR/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.1800 and 1.1780 support levels. USD/CHF is rising and it is likely to continue higher above 0.9450.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF
- The Euro started a fresh drop below the 1.1850 and 1.1800 support levels against the US Dollar.
- There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1755 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
- USD/CHF is trading in a bullish zone above the 0.9350 resistance zone.
- There is a key ascending channel forming with support near 0.9405 on the hourly chart.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
https://i.postimg.cc/JzKHFdhf/eurusd-chart-4.png
The Euro failed to stay above the 1.1900 zone and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the key 1.1850 pivot zone to move into a bearish zone.
The pair even broke the 1.1820 support level and settled below the 50 hourly simple moving average. The bears were able to push the pair below 1.1800 and a low is formed near 1.1709 on FXOpen.
It is currently showing a lot of bearish signs and it seems like there are high chances of more losses below the 1.1700 support zone. The next major support could be near the 1.1660 level, below which the pair may possibly test the 1.1620 support.
On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.1730 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1804 high to 1.1709 low.
There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1755 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1804 high to 1.1709 low.
The 50 hourly simple moving average is also near 1.1760. If there is a break above the trend line resistance, the pair could correct higher towards the 1.1800 zone. The next major resistance is near the 1.1850 level.
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LTC and EOS – More upside expected
https://i.postimg.cc/WpHjnmNS/ltc.jpg
LTC/USD
The price of Litecoin has been on the rise from the 25th when it was being traded at $169. We have seen an increase of 18.7% as the price came up to $200 at its highest point today. Currently it is being traded slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory overall.
https://i.postimg.cc/sDGz0B1z/ltcusd-1h.jpg
Looking at the hourly chart, we can see that the price came up to the 0.382 Fibonacci level and made an attempt to break out above it but failed to do so. The first attempt was made on the 29th from which we have seen some sideways movement below the level before finally another attempt was made today. The price would now be expected to make pullback as the 3rd attempt for a breakout failed, but we haven’t seen a rejection just yet.
If from the 25th we have seen the development of the 4th corrective wave out of the five-wave impulse to the downside now the price would be starting the development of its 5th wave to the downside which would be set to achieve a lower low compared to the 25th one. However, there could be a possibility that the decrease ended as a three-wave move as the part of the higher degree complex correction count, in which case the ascending move would be the first sub-wave of the next starting impulse to the upside.
In either way, we are going to see from the interaction with the 0.382 Fib level what would be the scenario, as if it manages to go above it, it would enter the territory of the 1st wave and invalidated the possibility of a lower low.
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Gold Price and Oil Price Eye Additional Gains
https://i.postimg.cc/tRWHqwQ6/Gold-price-oil-price.jpg
Gold price started a fresh increase after testing the $1,680 support zone. Crude oil price is trading nicely above $60.00 and it might continue to rise steadily.
Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil
- Gold price remained well bid near the $1,680 and $1,675 levels against the US Dollar.
- There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $1,708 on the hourly chart of gold.
- Crude oil price is holding the key $59.50 and $60.00 support levels.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $60.55 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
Earlier this week, gold price extended its decline below the $1,710 and $1,700 support levels against the US Dollar. However, the bulls were active near the $1,680 and $1,675 levels.
A low was formed near $1,677 on FXOpen before the price started a fresh increase. There was a break above the $1,695 and $1,700 resistance levels. The price climbed nicely above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,745 swing high to $1,677
https://i.postimg.cc/BbTWmLcp/gold-price-chart.png
There was also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $1,708 on the hourly chart of gold. The price is now trading well above $1,710 and the 50 hourly simple moving average.
It is now testing the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,745 swing high to $1,677 low. A successful break above the $1,730 resistance could open the doors for a larger increase in the coming sessions.
The next key resistance is near the $1,745 level. The main resistance is still near $1,750, above which the price could test $1,780. Conversely, the price could fail to continue higher and it might decline below the $1,720 level.
The main support is near the $1,705 level. A clear break below the $1,705 support may possibly start a strong decline towards $1,675 in the near term.
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GBP/USD Could Accelerate Higher, EUR/GBP Remains At Risk
https://i.postimg.cc/fLV8Br9n/GBPUSD-Sterling-1.jpg
GBP/USD is facing resistance near 1.3850, but it might accelerate higher. EUR/GBP is facing an increase in selling pressure below 0.8550.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP
- The British Pound is showing positive signs, but it is facing resistance near 1.3850.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3810 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
- EUR/GBP declined below the 0.8580 and 0.8550 support levels.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8510 on the hourly chart.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
https://i.postimg.cc/Xv7HyJNv/gbpusd-chart.png
After forming a support base above 1.3720, the British Pound started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3780 and 1.3800 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.
There was also a close above the 1.3800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair is now facing a strong resistance near the 1.3850 level. The recent high was formed near 1.3852 on FXOpen before there was a minor downside correction.
There was a break below the 1.3825 level. The pair even declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3746 swing low to 1.3852 high.
The pair is now holding the 1.3800 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3810 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3746 swing low to 1.3852 high.
If there is a downside break below the trend line, the pair could decline towards the 1.3780 and 1.3770 support levels. Any more losses might lead the pair towards the key 1.3720 support.
On the upside, the pair is facing hurdles near the 1.3850 level. A clear upside break above the 1.3850 level could open the doors for a steady increase. In the stated case, GBP/USD could rise towards the 1.6000 level in the near term.
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Global Economic Activity Picks Up On Increased Vaccination Campaigns
https://i.postimg.cc/MGsCrfyp/vaccination-1.jpg
As most of the world celebrates Easter, strong signs of economic recovery emerge. Last Friday, with most banks closed, the United States revealed the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) numbers for March 2021.
The release exceeded all expectations, showing that the United States economy added close to a million new jobs in only one month. Moreover, the unemployment rate edged down to 6%, a further encouraging sign that the world’s largest economy is recovering from the pandemic.
https://i.postimg.cc/8CP8HmfY/piie.jpg
Furthermore, important revisions to previous data showed that an additional 156k jobs were created in January and February. In total, 1.7 million jobs were added by the United States economy in the first quarter of the year. Because this is the largest economy in the world, the chances are that the positive economic effects will spill over to its main trading partners, fueling a strong economic recovery around the world.
Vaccines Rollout Spurring Economic Growth
Last November, the world found out that science delivered on its efforts to find a vaccine against the COVID-19 virus. For three consecutive weeks, companies like Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, or AstraZeneca, released promising data on their vaccine trials.
Fast forward four months to present times, and the vaccines are rolled out around the world. While differences exist in the vaccination pace, the main idea is that the quicker the governments manage to inoculate the population, the faster the economy recovers, and life will get back to normal.
https://i.postimg.cc/rw9XxPsW/owid.jpg
Supply and distribution disparities exist. The United Kingdom and the United States are leading the developed world, while the Euro area is lagging behind.
It all came down to how fast the nations moved to secure the vaccines and what risks they took in the early days of the pandemic. Europe lost momentum in the first quarter, but things look promising starting with April – in the first day of April, over three million people received a vaccine in Europe, a pace that will likely increase moving forward.
If we add the fiscal stimulus in the United States (i.e., $1.9 trillion) already distributed and the upcoming $3 trillion for long-term infrastructure projects, the chances are that the economic data will beat expectations in the months ahead too.
The currency market acted accordingly and rewarded investors closely watching the vaccination race – the U.S. dollar and the British pound rallied in the last months, while the euro lagged. Moving forward, 2021 might be a year dominated by a risk-on environment as the global economy recovers from the pandemic. The key stays with the vaccination campaigns – the quicker the world’s nations inoculate the population, the better for the economic growth.
FXOpen Blog
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BTC struggling to break $60,000 while Ripple shown a parabolic rise
https://i.postimg.cc/4xJVvDb8/btc.jpg
BTC/USD
The price of Bitcoin has attempted to break the $60,000 last week as we have mostly seen buyers’ pressure on the level throughout the week until Sunday when a decrease was made to $56,466. From there we have seen another increase followed by a higher low and now the price has made a higher high which is a bullish sign. However, it is once again back below the first horizontal level in line at $59,420 and is shortly going to make another breakout attempt.
https://i.postimg.cc/SxD8gggm/btcusd-1h.png
The uptrend continuation would be expected in either way but it is still unclear whether or not before it we are going to see a deeper retracement. The primary scenario is a bullish one and says that now the price has started developing a new lower degree five-wave move to the upside.
If this is true, then we are going to see another higher low for the 4th wave and potentially an interaction with the all-time high on its ending wave. But this would only be the 1st sub-wave of the higher degree count which is why new highs would be anticipated after a pullback to establish further support.
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LTC and EOS – Looking for support
https://i.postimg.cc/Dyc9sfM6/ltc-1.jpg
LTC/USD
The price of Litecoin has been rising since last week and came up to its previous high at $244 on the 6th of April. From there we have seen a decline of 13.26% as it came down to $211.62. Currently, it is being traded at around $220.9 as a minor recovery has been made but the price has been moving to the downside again.
https://i.postimg.cc/CxLW4Tyg/ltcusd-1h.png
On the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Litecoin was on the rise since the 25th of March when it fell down to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. This was at first expected as a corrective 4th wave from the descending impulse wave but as it continued increasing from there above the 0.382 FIb level the count was invalidated which implied that previously we have seen a three-wave correction.
If the previosly seen descending move ended as the higher degree WXY correction then from the 25th of March we have seen the start of the next impulsive move being its first wave. No retracement back to the 0.382 Fib level could be expected as the second sub-wave of the five-wave impulse to the upside from which the price of Litecoin would be set to continue its upward trajectory. However, first, we need to see the establishment of support and the validation of the count so from the momentum and the depth of the expected descending move we are going to reevaluate this possibility.
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Cryptocurrencies Remain Well Bid as Coinbase Goes Public This Week
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Over the weekend, the price of Bitcoin extended its rally to above $60,000 again. While not making a new all-time high, Bitcoin remains well bid ahead of the main event of the week ahead – the listing of Coinbase, one of the largest crypto exchanges.
The cryptocurrency market increased in size dramatically in recent years. The interest surrounding cryptocurrencies is on the rise, as suggested by the number of people trading on the various exchanges.
https://i.postimg.cc/WzBXL6qc/tokens.jpg
Part of the process of becoming a listed company, Coinbase made public its Q1 2021 numbers. What is interesting is that the number of active traders increased dramatically in the first months of the year, explaining the rise in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
While many traders focus on Bitcoin only, some other cryptocurrencies had an even better performance than Bitcoin. For example, Ethereum reached a new all-time high over the weekend, and the rally looks poised to continue.
Bitcoin’s detractors argue that the digital currency wastes a vast amount of energy, and thus it is an environmental disaster. Because of that, many traders flee Bitcoin to other alternatives, such as Ether, that do not have such a problem.
Yet, when it comes to institutional investors’ adoption, Bitcoin remains the preferred choice. Moving forward, the price of Bitcoin remains well bid, and so the rally is poised to continue.
Two days from now, Coinbase, one of the largest crypto exchanges in the world, goes public. Companies usually choose to go public during a rising market. Often companies postpone the listing process when markets are falling. But now, the main indices are close to all-time highs, and so the timing of going public boats well for Coinbase and cryptocurrency traders.
Judging by the interest surrounding cryptocurrencies, the chances are that Coinbase’s listing will be a bullish event for the main cryptocurrencies too. As such, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain well bid, with buyers likely to step in on every dip.
FXOpen Blog
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EUR/USD Gains Traction, USD/JPY Is Extending Losses
https://i.postimg.cc/NMmmQ67P/Euro-EUR.jpg
EUR/USD started a decent increase after forming a base above the 1.1850 level. USD/JPY is declining and it broke the 109.00 support zone.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY
- The Euro is showing positive signs above the 1.1880 and 1.1900 levels.
- There was a break above a key declining channel with resistance near 1.1915 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
- USD/JPY started a fresh decline below the 109.20 and 109.00 support levels.
- There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 109.50 on the hourly chart.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
https://i.postimg.cc/NFtTFKdG/eurusd-chart-1.png
After a decent upward move, the Euro settled above the 1.1850 resistance zone against the US Dollar. Recently, the EUR/USD pair formed a support base above 1.1850 and started a fresh increase.
It broke a few important hurdles near the 1.1880 and 1.1900 levels. There was also a break above a key declining channel with resistance near 1.1915 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair gained pace above the 1.1940 level and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average.
A high is formed near 1.1960 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating gains. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.1940 level.
The 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.1877 low to 1.1960 high is also near the 1.1940 level. The next major support on the downside is near the 1.1920 level (the recent breakout zone).
The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.1877 low to 1.1960 high is also near the 1.1920 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.1850 level. On the upside, the first major resistance is now forming near the 1.1960 levels.
A successful break above the 1.1960 resistance could open the doors for a push towards the 1.2000 resistance zone in the coming sessions.
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LTC and EOS – Resistance found
https://i.postimg.cc/NjrMJQnF/ltc-1.jpg
LTC/USD
The price of Litecoin has reached $282 at its highest point yesterday and after a minor retracement made it back to that area again today. Currently, it is being traded at $271.89 and is looking like it’s moving to the downside.
https://i.postimg.cc/sXKDQxM6/ltcusd-1h-1.png
On the hourly chart, we can see that the price of Litecoin was in an uptrend from the 25th of March when it was traded at $167. Measured to its highest point yesterday that was an increase of 68.8% but what more significant is that it made a higher high compared to the one on the 20th of February. This is why the increase from the 25th is considered the 3rd wave from the higher degree five-wave count. The wave structure implies that it might have ended and considering that we have seen the formation of the ascending channel from the start of the year now a pullback all the way down to its support might occur.
There is still a bit more room to the upside for proper interaction with the channel’s resistance and more so if the level is adjusted to encompass February’s high. However, this structure appears to be an ending diagonal as the 5th wave from the higher degree impulse which is why further interactions with its level would be expected before the completion, meaning we could likely see the price of Litecoin back to $220 area, before another higher high to $330 area.
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Gold Price and Oil Price Could Continue To Rise
https://i.postimg.cc/zvfBT2P1/oil-and-dollars.jpg
Gold price started a fresh increase above the $1,740 resistance zone. Crude oil price is also rising and it is likely to continue higher above $63.50.
Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil
- Gold price gained pace after it broke the $1,720 and $1,740 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,745 on the hourly chart of gold.
- Crude oil price climbed higher nicely and it settled above the $62.00 support zone.
- There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $62.45 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
https://i.postimg.cc/0QnjM1nf/gold-price-chart-1.png
Earlier this week, gold price formed a decent support base above the $1,725 level against the US Dollar. As a result, there was a fresh increase above the $1,730 and $1,740 levels.
There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,745 on the hourly chart of gold. The price gained pace above the $1,750 level and it settled well above the 50 hourly simple moving average.
It even traded above the $1,765 level and a high is formed near $1,769 on FXOpen. The price is now correcting lower and trading below the $1,765 level.
It is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,732 low to $1,769 high. An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,758 level. The next major support on the downside is near the $1,755 level.
Any more losses might call for a test of the $1,750 support. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,732 low to $1,769 high.
On the upside, the $1,768 and $1,770 levels are immediate hurdles. A clear break above $1,770 might open the doors for a steady increase towards the $1,780 level. The next key resistance is near the $1,800 level.
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GBP/USD Eyes More Upsides, EUR/GBP Holding Key Support
https://i.postimg.cc/qqT435xx/gbpusd.jpg
GBP/USD is showing positive signs above 1.3800 and 1.3780. EUR/GBP is showing bearish signs and it is testing a major support near 0.8640.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP
- The British Pound started a decent increase from the 1.3720 support zone.
- There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 1.3780 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
- EUR/GBP failed to continue higher above 0.8720 and corrected lower.
- There was a break below a major contracting triangle with support near 0.8685 on the hourly chart.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
After forming a support base above 1.3700, the British Pound started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3750 and 1.3800 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.
There was also a close above the 1.3800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. During the increase, there was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 1.3780 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
https://i.postimg.cc/zBm1sc6Y/gbpusd-chart-2.png
The pair climbed above the 1.3820 level and traded as high as 1.3843 on FXOpen. Recently, there was a downside correction from the 1.3843 high.
The pair tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3716 swing low to 1.3843 high at 1.3813. The next major support on the downside is near the 1.3800 zone (the recent breakout zone).
Any more losses could initiate a drop towards the 1.3780 support or the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3716 swing low to 1.3843 high is also near the 1.3780 level.
On the upside, the 1.3840 and 1.3850 levels are immediate hurdles. A successful break above 1.3850 might clear the path for more gains above the 1.3880 and 1.3900 levels.
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Lumber Prices Go Ballistic as the U.S. Housing Market Booms
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The U.S. housing sector is closely watched by investors from all over the world. It has strategic importance both for the United States GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and for the world’s economies.
People are too focused now on the COVID-19 pandemic to remember that the previous crisis, a financial one, started from the U.S. housing sector. In 2008-2009, the U.S. housing market bubble burst, a combination of derivative products used the wrong way, and so the market collapsed rapidly. The shockwave reached Europe and other developed economies, generating a financial crisis that haunted Europe for several years.
Fast forward to 2021, the world still struggles with the pandemic, but the housing market in the United States is in an unprecedented boom. This is very good news for the domestic economy and also for other economies. After all, when America’s economy outperforms, the positive spillovers influence other economies too.
https://i.postimg.cc/8Ch9SyM2/1.jpg
Recovery Stronger Than Expected As Suggested by Strong Housing Sector Activity
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered changes in consumer behavior. People learned that online shopping (for some products) is as good as going out and buying the product. And, cheaper.
Therefore, the chances are that most of the changes seen during the pandemic are here to stay. One of the most interesting changes affected the workplace. Those who can work from home have built a home office, for example.
Also, people fled cities for outdoor spaces. Or, they stopped using common transportation favoring personal cars.
As such, contrary to all expectations, the COVID-19 recession was unique as both the auto and the housing sectors performed well. In particular, the housing sector has seen tremendous growth, as America literally faces a shortage of new houses.
And lumber to build them.
https://i.postimg.cc/bJpMNQRs/2.jpg
The price of lumber broke above $1,000 as there is no lumber enough to satisfy the demand. For those unfamiliar with the commodities market, lumber is a product of timberland and is usually harvested in periods of rising prices.
This is such a period. However, the demand from the U.S. housing market is so strong that the futures market still points to higher lumber prices. Commodities are typically traded on futures exchanges, where the clearinghouse brings together buyers and sellers and settles the prices on a daily basis.
When the spot price exceeds the futures price, it is said that the market is in backwardation. The entire lumber futures curve is in backwardation – a bullish sign suggesting more upside is possible for the price of lumber.
Therefore, investors should expect more upside for the U.S. housing market and, thus, for the U.S. economy. Are we about to witness one of the biggest economic recoveries in history?
FXOpen Blog
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BTC and XRP – Recovery seen but further downside expected
https://i.postimg.cc/3J1vfvR3/btcxrp.jpg
BTC/USD
The price of Bitcoin has fallen by 20.4% measured from its all-time high of $64,791 made on the 14th of April to its lowest wick on the 17th when the price came down to $51,531. From there we have seen a recovery to $57,702 but then again the price started falling back down and is currently being traded at around $55,980.
https://i.postimg.cc/2yFZDq7F/btcusd-1h-2.png
On the hourly chart, you can see that the price made the majority of its decrease on the 17th which was the 5th wave from the descending impulse. This could be the first sub-wave of the higher degree downturn that we are to see in the market.
It broke down from some of the highly significant support levels both horizontal and the ascending triangle in which it was since the 21st of February. This ascending triangle could have been the ending diagonal which marked the completion of the five-wave impulse from March last year.
This is the overdue correction that the market needed to overcome in order to continue moving to the upside and is now likely to push the price further to the downside. However, this isn’t expected in a straight line. More likely we are to see now a corrective increase and a consolidation before another impulsive move to the downside of the equally strong amount.
Potentially we could see now an ABC correction out of which we are currently seeing the development of the B wave and in the upcoming days the C wave would make a higher high compared to Monday’s one but from there further lows would be expected below the $50,000 mark.
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LTC and EOS – Are we seeing the establishment of an uptrend?
https://i.postimg.cc/htrh1sYW/ltc-1.jpg
LTC/USD
The price of Litecoin has been on the rise since Tuesday when it fell to $234 at its lowest point. It is currently being traded at $281 which is an increase of 21.45% from Tuesday and is still in an upward trajectory.
https://i.postimg.cc/BvnbYDW8/ltcusd-1h-2.png
On the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Litecoin is currently sitting at the level of its Monday’s high and has found resistance, indicated but the wick on the seller’s side on the hourly candle. However, we have seen a breakout from the descending triangle which is why the momentum looks strong enough to push the price higher.
If we have seen the completion of the corrective move from the 17th, the next move could be the starting five-wave impulse to the upside that is going to make new highs. Another possibility could be that the price is forming the second sub-wave of the higher degree correction in which case the current rise would end as a three-wave formation. But in either way from here another high to around the $310 area would be expected.
From the pullback that would be anticipated after we are going to see which scenario is in play as if the price falls back below $280 again on the pullback, it would invalidate the possibility of the price forming a five-wave impulse. In that case another lower low could be seen below the $230 area but for now the chart of Litecoin looks bullish.
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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Could Extend Losses
https://i.postimg.cc/KYyhKtzn/AUD.jpg
AUD/USD failed to clear the 0.7800 resistance and corrected lower. NZD/USD is likely to extend losses if there is a clear break below the 0.7150 support.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD
- The Aussie Dollar failed to gain strength above the 0.7800 level against the US Dollar.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7730 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
- NZD/USD corrected lower and it is now testing the 0.7150 support zone.
- There was a break below a major contracting triangle with support near 0.7180 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
After a steady increase, the Aussie Dollar struggled above the 0.7800 level against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair traded as high as 0.7815 on FXOpen and it recently started a fresh decline.
There was a break below the 0.7780 and 0.7750 support levels. The pair even settled below the 0.7750 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 0.7689 and it is now correcting losses.
https://i.postimg.cc/TPqMnhLB/audusd-chart-1.png
It broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7764 swing high to 0.7689 low. On the upside, there is a major resistance forming near the 0.7725 and 0.7730 levels. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7730 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7764 swing high to 0.7689 low. The 50 hourly simple moving average is also near the trend line.
Therefore, a clear break above the trend line and 0.7730 is must for a steady increase. The next major resistance could be 0.7750, above which the price could rise towards the 0.7800 resistance.
Conversely, the pair could decline below the 0.7700 support zone. If there is a downside break below the 0.7700 and 0.7685 levels, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.7650 level.
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GBP/USD and GBP/JPY: British Pound Eyes Fresh Increase
https://i.postimg.cc/XNQmtShZ/gbp-1.jpg
GBP/USD found support near 1.3825 and it is now showing positive signs. GBP/JPY is stable above 149.40 and it is now facing hurdles near 150.00.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY
- The British Pound tested the 1.3825 support zone and it is now recovering against the US Dollar.
- There was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near 1.3885 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
- GBP/JPY is holding the main 149.40 and 149.20 support levels.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 149.65 on the hourly chart.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
This past week, the British Pound saw a steady decline below the 1.3950 support zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3880 support level.
However, the pair found support near the 1.3825 zone. A low was formed near 1.3823 on FXOpen and the pair recently started a fresh increase. It broke the 1.3850 and 1.3880 resistance levels.
https://i.postimg.cc/vHKjH7Gb/gbpusd-chart-3.png
There was also a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near 1.3885 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. Moreover, there was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.3949 swing high to 1.3823 low.
The pair is now trading nicely above the 1.3750 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is testing the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.3949 swing high to 1.3823 low.
If there is a clear upside break above the 1.3900 and 1.3920 levels, there are chances of more upsides. In the stated case, the pair is likely to accelerate higher towards the 1.4000 resistance.
If there is a fresh decline, the previous resistance near 1.3880 or the 50 hourly simple moving average might provide support. If there are additional losses, the pair could decline towards the 1.3850 level.
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GDP Growth Follows Success In Vaccination Efforts
https://i.postimg.cc/d11hfPsC/covid-19-vaccine.jpg
The week ahead is marked by two important central banks delivering their monetary policy statements – the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve in the United States. While the two events are crucial for Japanese yen and U.S. dollar traders, the market is also interested in what the GDP data in the United States and Canada will reveal.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic hit the world, the GDP or Gross Domestic Product fell sharply in all countries. For the first time, the entire world was in an economic recession.
Last November, the world found out for the first time that vaccines have promising results. Since that moment, a race against the clock started, with the price being not only the defeat of the virus but also a quick economic recovery.
Chinese GDP Growth Signals Strong Bounce in Developed Economies Too
Unfortunately, there are not enough vaccines for everybody at this point, but the situation gets better by the day. The more time passes, the more vaccines will be delivered throughout the world, and the faster the economic recovery will be.
However, because of the inequalities in vaccine deliveries, some countries will experience economic growth faster and stronger than others. Hence, their currencies will likely benefit from it, as well as the stock market.
The Chinese GDP grew by over 18% in the first quarter of the year, when compared to the same quarter a year ago. The bounce was much stronger than expected, and the chances are that the U.S. economic growth will also exceed expectations.
Next Thursday, the advanced GDP in the United States is expected to show that the U.S. economy grew by 6.5% in the first quarter of the year. Judging by how the Chinese economy performed, the chances are that the U.S. economy will also beat expectations.
One day earlier, Jerome Powell will have a hard time explaining to market participants why the Fed is not preparing to taper its asset purchases. As the chart above shows, America is one of the nations that lead in the vaccination race, and so the economic recovery is much stronger – why the need for easing?
To sum up, the bigger the economic expansion, the more difficult for the Fed to keep its policy unchanged. The tapering may be closer than market participants expect.
FXOpen Blog
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BTC and XRP – Strong bullish momentum seen
https://i.postimg.cc/PxSfffjS/btc.jpg
BTC/USD
The price of Bitcoin has been decreasing from the 14th of April when it reached $64,735 at its highest point. From there we have seen a decline of 27.56% measured to its lowest point made on the 25th which was at $46,896. A recovery of 16.8% followed as the price came up to $55,000 area on its highest point of the week so far. Currently, it is being traded slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory.
https://i.postimg.cc/D0D2sCms/btcusd-1h-3.png
On the hourly chart, you can see that the price made a three-wave decrease from the 14th of April which was most likely an WXY correction of the higher degree count. It ended with a double bottom with an impulsive rise that followed.
This could be an early indication that the price decrease ended and that we are seeing the development of the next starting impulse. However, we could have seen another corrective ABC to the upside from the 23rd which would be the corrective WXY continuation wave leading into a lower low.
We are now seeing the price looking for support above the significant horizontal support at $53,369 with a minor triangle forming, so from its breakout direction, we are to see which scenario gets validated.
If we see a breakout to the upside it could mean that the starting impulse is on the move, but if the price starting impulsively moving to the downside it could be an indication that the corrective ABC to the upside ended.
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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Remains Well Supported
https://i.postimg.cc/x1F2PzLC/Euro-EURUSD-1.jpg
EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.2000 and 1.2050 resistance levels. EUR/JPY also gained momentum and it is now trading well above 130.00.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY
- The Euro formed a base above 1.2000 and started a fresh increase above 1.2050.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2075 on the hourly chart.
- EUR/JPY is also trading in a positive zone above the 131.00 zone.
- There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 131.25 on the hourly chart.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
There was a steady increase in the Euro started above the 1.1950 resistance against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.2000 and 1.2050 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.
There was also a break above the 1.2100 zone and the pair settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. A high was formed at 1.2116 on FXOpen before there was a downside correction.
https://i.postimg.cc/R06zpZTT/eurusd-chart-3.png
The pair traded as low as 1.2056 and it is now attempting a fresh increase. There was already a spike above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2116 high to 1.2056 low. However, the pair is struggling to settle above the 1.2085 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average.
The next major resistance is near the 1.2095 level. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2116 high to 1.2056 low.
Any more gains could set the pace for a fresh high above the 1.2116 level in the near term. The next key resistance could be near the 1.2140 level. On the downside, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2075 on the hourly chart.
If there is a downside break, EUR/USD might continue to move down towards the 1.2050 support. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of the 1.2000 support zone in the near term.
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LTC and EOS – Breakout seen but would it be confirmed?
https://i.postimg.cc/44YJ5D57/ltc-1.jpg
LTC/USD
The price of Litecoin has been on the rise since the 26th of April when it fell down to $211. From there we have seen an increase of 26.4% as it came up to $266.6 at its highest point. It started moving sideways from yesterday’s high and is currently sitting slightly lower but is in an upward trajectory overall.
https://i.postimg.cc/mZKT6mXd/ltcusd-1h-3.png
On the hourly chart, we can see that the price has started breakout out from the symmetrical triangle in which it was since yesterday’s high. This could be an early indication that the price is now headed further up. However, a confirmation is needed which could come as the hourly candle close above the territory of the symmetrical triangle and then a successful retest of its resistance for support
The previous descending move has definitely ended as a five-wave correction however it is still unclear how the current rise would end and which type of structure it could form. There are three possible scenarios in play. The first being that we are seeing the starting five-wave impulse in which case its third sub-waves 1st wave has developed. The next one is slightly negative and considered the rise from the 26th as the ABC correction with more upside potential for the C wave. The third one is the most negative one and implies that the ABC correction to the upside already ended in which case we are now seeing the start of the next descending move with the symmetrical triangle being its 2nd sub-wave.
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Gold Price Remains At Risk, Oil Price Extends Rally
https://i.postimg.cc/QtGsVzcH/Gold-p...il-price-2.jpg
Gold price failed to clear the $1,800 resistance zone and started a fresh decline. Crude oil price is rising and it is showing a lot of positive signs above $64.50.
Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil
- Gold price failed to clear the $1,790 and $1,800 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,788 on the hourly chart of gold.
- Crude oil price climbed higher nicely and it even broke the $65.00 resistance zone.
- There is a crucial bullish trend line forming with support near $64.30 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
https://i.postimg.cc/d0TwsFkb/gold-price-chart-2.png
Earlier this week, gold price climbed higher above the $1,780 resistance against the US Dollar. However, it failed to clear the $1,790 and $1,800 resistance levels.
A high was formed near $1,789 on FXOpen before the price started a fresh decline. There was a break below the $1,780 and $1,765 support levels. The price even settled below the $1,780 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.
A low was formed near $1,756 before the price recovered. It climbed above the $1,765 level. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,789 high to $1,756 low.
However, the price failed to clear the $1,780 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It also struggled near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,789 high to $1,756 low.
Moreover, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,788 on the hourly chart of gold. The price must clear the $1,780 resistance and the trend line to start a strong increase in the coming sessions.
If not, there is a risk of another decline below the $1,760 level. The first key support is near the $1,755 and $1,750 levels. Any more losses might call for a test of the $1,720 support.
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GBP/USD Turns Red, EUR/GBP Eyes More Upsides
https://i.postimg.cc/6p2h9rVG/GBPUSD-Cable-Sterling.jpg
GBP/USD failed to test 1.4000 and started a fresh decline. EUR/GBP is showing positive signs and it is trading nicely above the 0.8675 support zone.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP
- The British Pound topped near the 1.3975 zone and started a fresh decline.
- There was a break below a key contracting triangle with support near 1.3885 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
- EUR/GBP started a fresh increase and it settled above the 0.8650 pivot level.
- There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.8695 on the hourly chart.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
https://i.postimg.cc/W1BwtdSY/gbpusd-chart.png
After a steady increase above the 1.3900 level, the British Pound faced sellers against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair failed to test the 1.4000 resistance zone and started a fresh decline.
A high was formed at 1.3976 on FXOpen before the pair declined. It broke the 1.3920 and 1.3900 support levels. There was also a break below a key contracting triangle with support near 1.3885 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
The pair settled well below the 1.3850 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 1.3801 and it is now attempting an upside correction.
An initial resistance on the upside is near the 1.3840 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3976 high to 1.3801 low. The first major resistance is near the 1.3860 level.
The next major resistance is near the 1.3885 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3976 high to 1.3801 low is also near 1.3885. A successful close above 1.3850 and a follow up move above 1.3885 could open the doors for a move towards the 1.4000 resistance.
Conversely, there is a risk of a fresh decline towards the 1.3800 support level. The next major support is near the 1.3780 level. Any more losses could initiate a drop towards the 1.3720 support zone.
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