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‘GDP Shrank 4.8%’ - No. Forecast 30% Drop? Fantasy
The economists' statistical engine is running amok again, just like in 2008-2009. It's making mountains from molehills (make that sinkholes from potholes), scaring the heck out of investors, reporters and just about everyone else. Here's what's wrong...
Attachment 39297
Whenever the economy coughs, economist's yell, "Pneumonia!" They are not being alarmists. The problem is that their analytical machinery only works when big numbers take mini-steps along a stable trend.
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IfW Kiel Predicts 7.1% Fall In German GDP In 2020, 7.2% Growth Next Year
Germany's economy is set to shrink 7.1 percent this year due to the impact of the coronavirus, or Covid-19, the think tank IfW Kiel said in a report on Tuesday.
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Federal Reserve Is ‘Days Away’ From Making First Main Street Loans To Middle Market Businesses, Powell Says
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Powell says Main Street is “far and away the biggest challenge” the Fed has faced during the pandemic.
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Fed Expects Interest Rates To Remain Near Zero Through 2022
While the Federal Reserve expects the U.S. economy to rebound in 2021 following a sharp contraction this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, the central bank has indicated interest rates are likely to remain at current near-zero levels through 2022. The Fed on Wednesday announced its widely expected decision to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at zero to 0.25 percent.
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WTO Estimates 18.5% Fall In Global Trade In Q2
Global trade volumes shrank around 18.5 percent year-on-year in the three months to June when the coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent lockdown restrictions were at their peak in most countries, the World Trade Organisation said Tuesday.
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Fed Minutes Detail Discussions On Forward Guidance, Yield Curve Control
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With interest rates expected to remain at near-zero levels for the foreseeable future, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting showed participants discussed new tools for conducting monetary policy. The minutes showed the meeting included briefings on the roles of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchase programs as well as implementing yield curve control.
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U.S. Durable Goods Orders Spike More Than Expected
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Reflecting a sharp increase in orders for transportation equipment, the Commerce Department released a report on Wednesday showing new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods spiked by much more than expected in the month of July.
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