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This is a discussion on Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News. within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Date : 11th January 2021. Events to Look Out for This Week. 2021 has started and even though it is ...

      
   
  1. #761
    Senior Member HFblogNews's Avatar
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    Date : 11th January 2021.

    Events to Look Out for This Week.




    2021 has started and even though it is set to be far better than 2020, January remains as stormy and volatile as its predecessor. In the week ahead, the markets are expected to continue to buy into the recovery story. In regards to data, this will be a week of increased attention to the global inflation releases and production numbers out of the UK and China. The markets also remain focused on potential further lockdowns and tighter restrictions.

    Monday – 11 January 2021

    Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – China’s recovery broadened further, as manufacturing sentiment measures were firm and a key non-manufacturing sentiment measure remained elevated. CPI is expected to accelerate to in December as well with a 0.1% y/y pace in December following the 0.5% decline last month.

    BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 15:00)

    Tuesday – 12 January 2021

    BoE’s Broadbent speech (GBP, GMT 10:00)
    Fed’s Brainard speech (USD, GMT 14:35)
    Fed’s Rosengren speech (USD, GMT 19:00)

    Wednesday – 13 January 2021

    Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) –The December inflation reports should reveal a big energy-led gain for CPI with a moderate core price rise, and big increases for 0.4%m/m growth which would result in a 1.3% headline y/y increase.

    Thursday – 14 January 2021

    Imports and Exports (CNY, GMT N/A) – Consumer demand picked up and exports also climbed, as trade flows resumed after the weakness in Q2 in China. This is expected to be confirmed also in December’s release as imports expected to raise by 0.5% and exports by 15%.

    Initial Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – Initial jobless claims for the week of January 9 should remain elevated, though a -17k down-tick in the weekly pace to 770k has been assumed, after a -3k drop to 787k from 790k. Seasonal adjustment for initial claims was switched to being additive from multiplicative in September, and the usual seasonal rise in NSA claims through the holidays may be lifting the reported SA data with the new seasonal factors given the unusually high level of claims. We are likely also seeing a lift from expanding coronavirus restrictions.

    Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:30)

    Friday – 15 January 2021

    Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 00:30) – UK nations have gone into a ‘tier 5’ lockdown, the most restrictive level since the full lockdown of spring last year, although manufacturing, auto repair businesses, DIY and garden stores, remain open, along with food sellers. High street retail, aviation and other public transport, along with the hospitality sector, are bearing the brunt of the lockdown, as in other nations, although the percentage impact on GDP from these sectors being closed is bigger in the UK than most peers. The UK saw a bigger peak-to-trough GDP contraction than any other G20 nation in 2020 as a consequence of the national and global countermeasures taken to table Covid-19. With UK in lockdown season since November, November’s GDP figure expected to present a severe decline to 4.0% m/m with Manufacturing and industrial production at 0.7% m/m and 0.4% m/m respectively from 1.7% m/m and 1.3% m/m in October.

    US Retail Sales (USD, GMT 13:30) –A -0.2% December retail sales headline dip is forecasted with a -0.4% ex-autos decline, following respective November decreases of -1.1% and -0.9%. Unit vehicle sales rebounded in December, and this should support the auto dealer component. Typical strength is being undermined by rising coronavirus restrictions during the holiday shopping season.

    Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.2% December PPI headline rise is anticipated with a 0.1% core price gain, following gains of 0.1% for both in November. As expected readings would result in a y/y headline PPI metric of 0.6%, down from 0.8% in November. A rebound in energy prices should boost the headline. Oil prices are rebounding after a fall pause and a bottom in April, thanks to a better supply-demand balance in the petroleum sector, and supply constraints for some sectors should remain problematic into Q1.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #762
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    Date : 12th January 2021.

    Market Update – January 5 – Georgia on everybody’s mind.



    FX News Today

    USD continues to bounce (Day 5), and Yields up significantly as virus worries escalate and political uncertainty swirls. Democrats lodge papers to impeach President Trump if the cabinet doesn’t act to remove him. Neither of which are likely to come to fruition but the symbolism is significant. Equities lower (TSLA -7.82% & TWTR -6.4%), Asian markets mixed (Japan flat). Bitcoin crashed 20% before recovering 50% of loss, Oil recovered & Gold remains pressured by strong Yields. Overnight – weak Japanese bank lending and the worst UK Retail Sales figures since 1995, +4.8% vs 5.9% & 7.7% in Dec.

    USDIndex – 5th day higher from 33-mth low (89.15) and back over 90.00 but struggled over at 90.70 at 2-day high. Trades at 90.40 – PP 90.30 – S1 90.15, R1 90.65

    EUR – 4th day lower – trades under 1.2200 (R1) – 1.2130 (S1) yesterday, for a 18-day low, back to 1.2160 now– PP – 1.2180. 3 Black Crows on Daily Chart completed.



    JPY – 5th day higher but stalled ahead of 104.50 (R2) yesterday – Trades at 104.12 (PP), R1 104.30, S1 103.92

    GBP – down to 1.3450 (S1) yesterday. Back over 1.3500 and over R1 at 1.3555. PP 1.3510, R2 & 200Hr MA 1.3585

    AUD – Under 0.7700 yesterday to test 0.7660 – back to PP now 0.7725 – R1 0.7750, NZD – Down to 0.7150 yesterday – back to PP 0.7180, R1 0.7210 CAD – 1.2835 high yesterday – trades at 1.2745 (PP & 200MA) – R1 1.2800 CHF – Trades at 0.8900 – up from 3 yr lows on Wednesday at 0.8757. PP 0.8850

    BTC – Major Volatility yesterday – plunged 20%+ to $29,800. Retraced over 50% of fall – Back to around $36,400.

    GOLD – Tested 1820 as Yields rose – Trades at 1858 now, PP 1840 USOil – $52.70 high Friday – trades at $51.60 (R1) now – still elevated, after dip to $51.50.

    USA500 – Closed down 25 (-0.66%) 3799 – USA500 FUTS now at 3805. 47 days north of 20SMA (3735).

    Today – US NFIB Business Optimism, EIA STEO, BoE’s Broadbent, Fed’s Brainard, Kaplan, Mester, Rosengren, ECB’s de Cos

    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (-0.40%) Bounced from 200MA on open. Breached PP (0.6384) earlier and tested R1 (0.6400). Fast MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 57 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but remains south of 0 line this morning, Stochastics rising to OB. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0050.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #763
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    Date : 13th January 2021.

    FX Update – January 13 – USD & Yields stall their run, Politics swirls.



    FX News Today

    USD reversed its 5 day run as Yields stalled too. House vote tonight to impeach President Trump, (YouTube have banned him for 7 days), Pence will not initiate the 25th Amendment to remove him. The symbolism is significant, no President has ever been impeached twice. Equities flat too (UBER +7.24%,TSLA +4.72%, FB -2.24%, GooGL & NFLX -1.00%) Asian markets also flat. GBP rallied after Bailey pushed back on Negative Interest Rates. Oil rallied over 1% after surprise inventory drawdowns peaked at $53.90, AUD pegged by possible RBA “push back” to strong AUD. Gold recovered $1850.

    China reported its largest daily new COVID-19 cases in 5 months.

    USDIndex – Back under 90.00 from rejection of 90.50 yesterday. Trades at 89.95 just over S3 – PP 90.40 – S3 89.90, S2 90.07

    EUR – Recovered back over 1.2200 (R2) – Trades at 1.2215 now– PP – 1.2157. R3 1.2225 –



    JPY – Reverses under 104.000 – after rejection 104.50 on Monday. – Trades at 103.68 (200hr MA). – PP 103.90, S1 103.55

    GBP – Big rally – spurred by USD weakness and Governor Bailey pushing back on Negative Interest Rates. Breached 1.3600 after multiple attempts – rallied to 1.3690 – PP 1.3585, R1 1.3668, R2 1.3715

    AUD – Over 0.7700 yesterday to test 0.7770 (R2) now. R1 0.7748 – NZD – Over 0.7200 yesterday to test 0.7240 (R3) now. r2 0.7215 CAD – back to test 1.2700 (S2) today as Oil rises – S1 1.2725, S3 1.2664 from Friday CHF – Trades back to 0.8850 (200hrMA) and under S3 (0.8865)- PP 0.8900

    BTC – Back to around $34,600. – PP today 34,500, r1 36,600, s1 32,800

    GOLD – Recovers over 1850 (PP) – Trades at 1860 (R1) – R2 1875, PP 1840 USOil – New 11-mth high $53.90 (R2) after surprise drawdown in private inventories (EIA data later). R3 $54.70, r1 53.55.

    USA500 – Closed up 1.5 (+0.04%) 3800 – USA500 FUTS now at 3808. 48 days north of 20SMA (3740).

    Today – EZ industrial production, US CPI, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Bullard, Brainard, Harker, Clarida

    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.23%) 5th day higher – Bounced from 200MA on open, testing 1.7625 now, key resistance 1.7650. Fast MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 59 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and north of 0 line from Monday open, Stochastics rising to OB. H1 ATR 0.023, Daily ATR 0.0125.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #764
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    Date : 18th January 2021.

    Events to Look Out for This Week.




    US elections will dominate the markets in the week again, as the inauguration of Joe Biden will take place on Wednesday with security having been stepped up. From data perspective is all about inflation next week from UK, EU, Canada, New Zealand and Japan. However eye will be on central banks with BoC, BoJ and ECB rate decision in the spotlight.

    Monday – 18 January 2021

    Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00) – Gross Domestic Product should advance in Q4 and reveal headline growth of 6.1% y/y and 3.2% q/q.

    Tuesday – 19 January 2021

    Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 17:00) – The German HICP inflation for December is anticipated to remain unchanged at -0.7% y/y. Initial expectations had been for a slight lift in the annual rate, but national data out of Germany already indicated that the number would remain stuck at a very low level. Germany’s temporary VAT cut and base effects from energy prices are largely to blame for the negative rate.

    ECB Bank Lending Survey (EUR, GMT 09:00)

    Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – European January ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have declined at 45.5 compared to 54.4 last month.

    Wednesday – 13 January 2021

    The inauguration of Joe Biden as the 46th President will dominate headlines around the world!

    PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The People’s Bank of China in this meeting should provide guidance on the next move in Loan Prime Rates. It is expected to continue to maintain flexibility in the exchange rate, stabilize market expectations, and keep the yuan basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels.

    Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales Index (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK inflation data for December is anticipated higher at 0.5% y/y, after falling more than expected, to just 0.3% y/y in November, with the biggest downward contribution coming from food and non-alcohol beverages, along with clothing and footwear. The UK-wide Covid-19 lockdown in November suppressed price pressures. Inflation is likely to remain subdued over the next several months, but should pick up notably from spring, when base effects impact on year-on-year price comparisons. There is potential for pronounced reflation as 2021 progresses, assuming vaccine programs prove effective, which would facilitate a return towards societal and economic normalcy, and in turn trigger a possible consumer spending boom fuelled by ‘lockdown savings’. The Retail sales are seen at 1.1% y/y in December from 0.9% y/y last month.

    Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The final CPI headline and core are expected to show 0.3%m/m December gains, with core declining to 0.5% m/m.
    Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The CPI inflation accelerated to a 1.0% y/y pace in November, however, it is expected to decline in December to 0.8% y/y below the Bank’s target of 2% until 2023.

    Interest Rate Decision and Statement (CAD, GMT 15:00) – The BoC is expected to hold rates steady at 0.25% after December’s meeting in which extraordinary forward guidance remained in place as anticipated — the bank reiterated that it expects to hold rates at the effective lower bound until “economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.”

    Thursday – 21 January 2021

    Interest Rate Decision and Statement (JPY, GMT 03:00) – The BoJ is expected to hold rates steady at -0.1% after December’s meeting in which extraordinary forward guidance remained in place as anticipated — the bank reiterated that it expects to hold rates at the effective lower bound until “economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.” The speculation is growing that the BoJ will scale back its ETF stock buying programme – given the strength in equities and the BoJ’s substantial ownership of this ETF sector.

    Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45) – The ECB to add more stimulus at the moment seems unlikely unless current restrictions remain in place much longer than anticipated. Hence, ECB is expected to keep policy steady at January meeting. The central bank’s focus is on maintaining very favourable financing conditions for both governments and companies, against the background of a pandemic that not only has weighed heavily on the growth outlook, but also contributed a further fragmentation of economies and markets. With the advent of vaccination programs there clearly is no appetite to cut rates again. Not that the ECB rules out such a step — if the situation deteriorates again, or an overshooting currency undermines the inflation outlook, the ECB won’t shy away from using that instrument if necessary.

    Friday – 22 January 2021

    Markit PMI Composite (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:0) – Final December PMI readings brought downward revisions. The manufacturing PMI was revised to 55.2 from 55.5, while the services PMI came in at 46.4, versus 47.3 in the preliminary report, although still up from 41.7 in the previous month. The composite PMI was revised down to 49.1 from 49.8, again still an improvement from the 44.3 reported for November, but no signalling ongoing contraction, rather than the stabilisation the flash reading suggested. Social distancing measures and restrictions continued to weigh on the services sector and while the outlook in December was brightened by the prospect of vaccination programs, it is pretty clear now that restrictions won’t go away any time soon and that despite vaccines it will still be a very difficult winter. That means that while the downturn in overall activity in Q4 was less severe than thought at some point, the outlook for the first quarter looks very difficult and as Market highlighted the risk of a technical recession is greater now.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #765
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    Date : 19th January 2021.

    Market Update – January 19 – USD & Yen Slide.



    EURUSD, H1

    The Dollar and Yen have come under pressure today after rallying yesterday. A bullish sentiment in global stock markets has boosted other currencies, particularly the dollar bloc and other cyclical units. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose over 1.5% and clocked a new record high, buoyed in the wake of strong GDP and production data out of China yesterday. Europe’s Stoxx 600 fared less well, and was showing a modest 0.2% gain as of the late London morning session. US Index futures were up by over 0.5%. Commodities, in contrast, were lacklustre. Oil prices lifted moderately, rising above Monday’s highs, but remained off the 11-month highs that were pegged last week. Base metal prices were mixed.



    The USDIndex dropped below yesterday’s low to a nadir at S3 and 90.36. The index had yesterday printed a one-month high at 90.95. The dollar’s recent correlation with US Treasury yields broke, with the currency declining despite a concurrent 2 bp lift in the 10-year T-note yield to levels back above 1.10%. After rising on every trading day, except one, since January 6th, the Dollar had perhaps been looking ripe for a correction. Of interest, the latest Economist Big Mac index, which is a measure of 56 currency valuations according to the theory of purchasing power parity, shows the Dollar to be the fourth most overvalued currency, behind the Swiss franc, the Swedish krona, and the Norwegian krone. By this measure, the Euro is 9% undervalued relative to the Dollar, and the Pound 22% undervalued. This gives some insight into why the market has been so bearish of the Dollar in the beyond-Covid global reflation trade, which has the dominant macro investment thesis over the last couple of months.

    Ahead today, Ex Fed chair Janet Yellen will testify before Congress for her nomination as Treasury Secretary, where she will reportedly call for the US to “act big” on stimulus. Regarding the Dollar, she is expected to argue for market-determined exchange rates. Given the Fed’s inflation tolerant, lower-for-longer rubric on interest rate policy, alongside prospects for sharp rises in the budget and trade deficits, US economic policy under the incoming Biden administration is sure to be accepting of, if not wanting, a weaker Dollar.



    EURUSD – breached 1.2100 and trades north of R3 at 1.2144, Cable holds over 1.3600 having tested 1.3625 earlier, and USDJPY continues to rotate through 104.00.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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