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This is a discussion on Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News. within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Date : 14th February 2020. FX Update – EUR Pressure continues - 14th February EURUSD, H1 / Weekly Germany’s economy ...

      
   
  1. #591
    Senior Member HFblogNews's Avatar
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    Date : 14th February 2020.

    FX Update – EUR Pressure continues - 14th February




    EURUSD, H1 / Weekly

    Germany’s economy stagnated in Q4 last year, in line with a number of forecasts and a tad below consensus expectations, which had predicted a slight expansion of 0.1% q/q. Compared to negative quarterly prints in France and Italy, Germany is already the outperformer among the three big Eurozone countries and Q3 numbers for Germany were revised up to 0.2% from 0.1% reported initially. This left the working day adjusted annual rate 0.4% y/y a tad higher than anticipated, but down from 1.1% y/y in Q3. There is no full breakdown yet, but the stats office reported that private as well as public consumption slowed in the last quarter of 2019, while investment was mixed with construction investment, expanding again. Exports contracted, while imports picked up according to first estimate. Looking ahead, exports are likely to continue to suffer and orders numbers are predicting another weak quarter for manufacturing, which leaves the risk that the labour market will start to suffer. The balance of risks clearly is tilted to the downside not just for Germany’s economy.

    The Euro posted fresh lows against the Dollar and other currencies, while both the safe haven Yen and Swiss franc lost yesterday’s bid as the daily increment of new coronavirus cases in China fell back alongside narratives that are downplaying yesterday’s jump in total reported cases in Hubei province as being just a reclassification. EURUSD posted a fresh 34-month low at 1.08265, and is set for its biggest two-week loss since July 2019. Today, the German GDP helped lift it to 1.0840 with the broader GDP data for the wider Eurozone yet to come. EURJPY printed a four-month low, at 118.86, and EURCHF a near-five-year-low, at 1.0609. EURGBP yesterday saw a two-month low below at 0.8295.

    Elsewhere, USDJPY settled in the upper 109.00s, above the four-day low seen yesterday at 109.61. Cable consolidated gains seen yesterday, holding just shy of the nine-day high at 1.3069.



    The EURUSD low earlier tested the S2 and 161.8 Fibonacci extension low of the December rally at 1.0820, below there is the daily lower channel at 1.0750. In the the longer term the 161.8 Fibonacci extension level from the Q419 rally is at 1.0650 and then the psychological 1.0500. The Q419, against the trend, re-trace rally came from this over extension from the 200-day moving average which is where we are now, so some retrace to possibly the 1.1050-75 zone could be expected.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #592
    Senior Member HFblogNews's Avatar
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    Date : 17th February 2020

    Events to Look Out For Next Week 17th February 2020.




    *Uncertainties over the extent of the economic damage from the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) will keep the markets on shaky footing near term. Elsewhere, focus will be on Europe following Germany’s economic stagnation in Q4 last year as seen today. Looking ahead, ZEW exports and manufacturing remain in the spotlight. That said, further contraction on these leaves the risk that the labour market will start to suffer. The balance of risks is clearly tilted to the downside, and not just for Germany’s economy.

    Monday – 17 February 2020

    * Eurogroup Meeting

    * US Bank Holiday – US banks will be closed in observance of Presidents’ Day – NYSE, Nasdaq and Bond markets are all fully closed.

    Tuesday – 18 February 2020

    * RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The RBA minutes will provide more insight on the views the Australian Central Bank has about the economy.

    * Average Earnings and Unemployment (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Earnings are expected to have slowed by 3.1% in the last quarter of 2019, while the ILO Unemployment Rate for the 3 months to December is seen steady at 3.8%.

    * ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German Economic Sentiment for February is projected at 15.0 from the 26.7 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany declines further. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to rise to 30.0 from 25.6.

    * Trade Balance (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Japanese imports should decrease -15.8% y/y in January, compared to -4.9% in December, in expectation of lower domestic consumption. Overall, the trade balance is expected to have worsened in January.

    Wednesday – 19 February 2020

    * Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Prices are expected to have eased in January, with overall inflation expected to stand unchanged at 1.3% y/y, and core at 1.5% from 1.4% y/y last month.

    * Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Prices are expected to have improved to 0.1% in January following a flat CPI in December. The overall inflation should have expanded in January to a 2.2% y/y, matching December’s reading.

    * FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC minutes will provide more insight on the views the FED has about the economy.

    Thursday- 20 February 2020

    * Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Employment change s.a. is expected to have increased by 31K in Australia in January, compared to 28.9K in December. The unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 5.2%.

    * Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Following the unexpected 0.6% m/m contraction in UK retail sales in December, Retail Sales are expected to grow by 0.6% in January.

    * ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 12:30) –The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regard to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions.

    * National CPI Index (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The Japanese price index should fall to 0.7% on a y/y basis, compared to 0.8% in December.

    Friday – 21 February 2020

    * EU PMIs (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Both manufacturing and services February PMIs are expected to have dropped, leaving the composite at 51.0, down from 51.3 in the preliminary release for February. In Germany meanwhile, composite PMI should slow to 50.7 from 51.2.

    * UK Service PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The final services PMI for January was unexpectedly revised up, to 53.9 from 52.9 in the preliminary estimate, and the highest level in 16 months.

    * Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – CPI inflation is forecasted to hold at 1.4% y/y as seen in January.

    * Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Core Canadian sales are anticipated to have risen by 0.4% m/m in December, compared to 0.2% m/m in November.

    * US PMIs (USD, GMT 14:45) – The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have increased to 52.5 in February, compared to 51.9 in January, while the Services PMI is expected to have slowed to 52.9.

    * Existing Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:45) – We expect a 0.4% rise in existing home sales in January to a 5.560 mln pace, after a rise to 5.540 mln in December. Pending home sales have grown substantially since Q4 of 2018, though we saw a big -4.9% pull-back in December.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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