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This is a discussion on Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News. within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Date : 12th July 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th July 2017. FX News Today European Outlook: Asian stock ...

          
   
  1. #31
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    Date : 12th July 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th July 2017.


    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed, with Nikkei and ASX underperforming and heading south as the Dollar weakened ahead of Yellen’s testimony today. FTSE 100 futures are moving higher U.S. stock futures are mixed as markets remain in the ban of central bank comments. Yields rose again across Europe and with central banks eying exit trend occasional dovish comments are unlikely to provide more than a brief halt in the uptrends in yields. Today’s data calendar has U.K. labor market data as well as Eurozone May production numbers. Germany auctions a new 10-year Bund.

    US reports: revealed U.S. NFIB small business optimism index fell to 103.6 in June from 104.5 in May. It’s the lowest since the 98.4 in November. The index was as high as 105.9 in January, which was the best since the 106.1 print from December 2004. The all-time high is 107.4 from November 2004. The percentage of firms reporting plans to hire fell to 15% from 18%. On the other hand, U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings slumped 301k in May to 5,666k after rising 182k to 5,967k in April. The rate slid to 3.7% from 3.9%. But, hirings increased 429k to 5,472k, rebounding from the 261k drop to 5,043k. The rate improved to 3.7% from 3.5%. And quitters increased 177k to 3,221k after falling 94k to 3,044k. The rate inched up to 2.2% from 2.1%. The headline figure is disappointing, but the quit numbers, a Yellen favorite, should offset. Lastly, the U.S. wholesale report revealed a disappointing 0.5% May wholesale sales drop after a 0.3% (was 0.4%) April decline, though we saw a 0.4% May inventory rise that beat the 0.3% climb in the advance indicators report after a 0.4% April drop. The May sales drop mostly reflected a 7.8% price-led petroleum plunge, though weakness was evident across the durables data as well.

    BoE MPC member Broadbent kept mum on interest rates during a speech he delivered before the Scottish Council for Development and Industry earlier. Broadbent was among the majority of MPC members to vote for unchanged policy at the June meeting, which had been a surprise for markets as three of his colleagues voted for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate. He spoke mostly about his view on Brexit risks, concluding that “put simply, a significant curtailment of trade with Europe would force the UK to shift away from producing the things it’s been relatively good at, and therefore tends to export to the EU, and towards the things that it currently imports and is relatively less good at.” Broadbent argued that this, at least initially, would both lower income as trade shifts away from services exports, which the UK has a comparative advantage in, while raising costs as production shifted more towards food and machinery, areas where the UK has a comparative disadvantage. Sterling took a 15-20 pip tumble versus the G3 currencies, with markets appearing to take Broadbent’s words as meaning that he won’t vote for a tightening at the next MPC meeting on August 3.

    Fed Governor Brainard: it’s “appropriate soon” to start balance sheet shrinkage, she said in her speech on Cross-Border Spillovers of Balance Sheet Normalization. That’s consistent with the messages from the June policy state, the minutes, and the SEP, though it’s important that the dovish governor echoed that sentiment. The Fed will continue to assess inflation, especially in light of the recent softening, before deciding on the rate path. Policymakers want to move cautiously on further rate increases. She also noted that the currency markets could be more sensitive to the Fed’s rate actions than on the balance sheet.

    Main Macro Events Today

    UK Labor Data -The U.K. labour market report for May is expected to show the unemployment rate holding steady at the cycle low of 4.6%. A key focus for policymakers and the markets alike, will be average household earnings, as any fresh signs of weakness will provide an offset to the hawkish stance of the BoE.

    Fed Yellen – Yellen’s testimony today before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee (Thursday) will highlight .Her comments will be scrutinized for any sign that the timing could be accelerated, with an announcement on the portfolio at the upcoming July FOMC, with the start of the shrinkage in September. Or given the weaker trend in inflation, we will listen to hear any indication the slowdown in inflation is giving her cold feet on further normalization, pushing off action on the balance sheet and rate hikes further into year end, or even 2018.

    BOC Statement – The Bank of Canada’s policy announcement, Monetary Policy Report and press conference comprise the main event today. A hawkish U-turn by the Bank via several recent appearances and interviews by Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins have left a widespread expectation that the Bank will increase rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Visit Website to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #32
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    Date : 13th July 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th July 2017.


    FX News Today

    European Outlook: The positive mood on stock markets continued in Asia overnight as investors focused on the dovish side of Yellen’s testimony yesterday, which already saw U.S. and European markets closing with gains yesterday. In Japan though TSE and Nikkei erased early gains as banks and insurers weighed. Still, U.S. and European stock futures are also moving higher, even if the BoC’s rate hike yesterday was a reminder that global central banks are eying exit steps, which means dovish central bank comments can temporarily halt, but are unlikely to stop the gradual rise in yields going ahead.

    Fed Chair Yellen: reiterated the economy grew at a moderate pace, in her prepared remarks, while the labor market continued to strengthen. She also said she and the committee expect that the “evolution of the economy will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate.” She also repeated policy is not on a preset course. There was also a repeat of the paragraph on uncertainties in the outlook, and she noted inflation, possible changes in fiscal and other government policies, and regarding the global economy. Bonds and stocks have rallied on these comments, and the dollar has gyrated, even though the gist of her remarks were already released in the Monetary Policy Report last Friday. Yellen on the whites of inflation’s eyes: she side-stepped a question on the exact timing of balance normalization, and whether the soft inflation path could impact the FOMC’s decisions. She added that the Fed has laid out plans to normalize balance sheet in a transparent way and reiterated it’s likely to begin this year and “relatively soon,” echoing the remarks from the policy statement. The Fed overlooked the weaker inflation and real sector data back in June when it hiked rates, suggested another is likely this year, and outlined balance sheet normalization details, and that view still seems to hold currently. Also, Yellen indicated the Fed has tried to outline the balance sheet runoff, and indeed, that was an addendum to last month’s FOMC policy statement. She expects the unwind process to go smoothly as the Fed has been methodical in informing the public.

    Bank of Canada: raised rates 25 bps to 0.75%, matching widespread expectations. Recent data have boosted the Bank’s confidence in its outlook for above potential growth and the absorption of excess capacity in the economy. They acknowledge the recent softness in inflation but judge it to be temporary. Given the lag between policy action and future inflation, they decided it was appropriate to raise rates. As for future moves, they will be “guided by incoming data as they inform the Bank’s inflation outlook.”. Hence a follow up hike in September is likely if the economic data remains encouraging and maintains the broadening among regions and sectors seen this year. An October hike (with no change in September) would send a more gradualist message, but given their U-turn in tone and rate hike yesterday, taking it slow is perhaps not a priority. BoC Poloz said that he does not “doubt that rates will move higher” in the full course of time. There is not a pre-determined path, with policy moves data dependent, he said. He responded to a question on if today’s hike was to remove the 50 bp in 2015 cuts or the start of a series of steps upward. Not surprisingly, he did not classify yesterday’s move as either of the two scenarios. The economy, he said, can handle well the move today. Another two hikes in 2018, in January and April.

    German Jun HICP was confirmed at 1.5% y/y national CPI at 1.6% y/y. No surprises there, and although the slight uptick in the headline rate over the month was against the general trend in the Eurozone, even the German HICP is clearly below the ECB’s definition of price stability. Lower oil prices are playing a key factor as annual energy price inflation has now turned negative and stood at -0.1% y/y in June, down from 0.8% y/y in May and compared to 2.8% y/y at the start of the year. Prices for light heating oil rose merely 0.9% y/Y in June, after still rising 11.7% y/y in May and a staggering 42.5% y/y in January. So base effects from energy prices are now holding back the headline rate, and indeed the ECB already cut back its inflation projection on the back of lower than anticipated oil prices. More arguments then for the doves at the council, who are eager to reassure markets that nothing has changed so far, although that QE tapering will start early next year is almost certain.

    Main Macro Events Today

    US PPI – June PPI data is out today and should post a -0.2% headline decline with a 0.2% core increase. This follows May figures which had a flat headline and a 0.3% core index. There is some downside risk to the headline as WTI oil prices dipped 7.0% on the month.

    US Jobless Claims – Initial claims data for the week of July 8 are out today and are expected to post a decline to 245k from 248k last week and 244k the week prior.

    Fedspeak – Yellen’s testimony today on the Senate Banking Committee will highlight.

    BOC NHPI – Canada’s calendar has New Housing Price Index which expected to decline 0.3% m/m in May after the 0.8% in April.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Visit Website to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #33
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    Date : 14th July 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th July 2017.


    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved cautiously higher overnight and are heading for a strong week, for Hong Kong the best of the year, helped by a rally in banks and underpinned by cautious comments from Yellen, who doesn’t seem to be in a rush to tighten policy. Central banks remain the key focus and the announcement that Draghi will be speaking at Jackson Hole shortly before the September policy meeting has sparked speculation that he will use the chance to lay out the ECB’s tapering plans, coupled with remarks from BoE’s MacCafferty that the BoE should revisit the guidance on the unwinding of QE sent European yields higher yesterday afternoon, while capping gains in Eurozone equities and seeing the FTSE 100 closing in the red. Stock futures are pointing to a rebound in the FTSE 100, and Yellen’s comments may help bond yields to come off highs at the end of the week. The European calendar has Eurozone trade data as well as final Italian HICP readings.

    Fed Chair Yellen: has concluded her testimony yesterday. There wasn’t an attempt to walk back from the cautiously optimistic tone from yesterday’s testimony where she hedged the softer inflation dynamics. Other than her comment that the balance sheet is unwound is likely to push up rates at the long end, there weren’t any big revelations yesterday. That indication has seen the 30-year yield jump 5 bps to 2.925%, with the 5s-30s spread has steepened to 101.6 bps from 100.9 bps yesterday. It was as narrow as 93.5 bps on July 3. She said Q2 GDP growth should be “significantly stronger” versus Q1, but reaching a 3% pace would be “quite challenging.” Yellen on the balance sheet said that their intention is to shrink the balance sheet in a “slow, gradual, and predictable way. Fed has set out a detailed plan on how it will achieve that. Once triggered, the unwind is expected to run in the background. The run off should result in some increase in long term rates compared to the front end, she acknowledged, and the FOMC will take that into account as it sets the funds rate. She expects the funds rate to remain the principal tool of monetary policy. She repeated that the balance sheet and the quantity of reserves will be reduced over the next several years, but won’t go back to the pre-crisis levels.

    U.S. reports: revealed a smaller than expected PPI downdraft into mid-year despite falling oil prices, with a lift from rising food prices thanks to hot and dry weather in the upper midwest. We also saw sustained lofty initial claims levels into the holiday week of July that defied the usual auto retooling headline, likely thanks to ongoing vehicle sector weakness and some extended summer plant shutdowns. For PPI, the 0.1% June headline and core price gain beat estimates thanks to a smaller than expected 0.5% energy price drop alongside a 0.6% food price rise. For claims, a 3k downtick to a still-elevated 247k trimmed a 6k rise to 250k (was 248k) in the prior week. Claims are averaging 247k in July, following lean prior averages of 243k in June, 241k in May, and 243k in April. Next week’s BLS survey week reading should lie within the mix of 242k in June, 233k in May, and 243k in April, though the recent up-tilt may imply an overshoot.

    Main Macro Events Today

    EU Trade Balance – May Trade Balance for expected to post an increase at 20.3B from 19.6 B last month.

    US Retail Sales – The June retail sales report expected to be a flat with the ex-autos figure up 0.2% This follows respective May figures of -0.3% for both the headline and ex-autos and 0.4% for both figures in April. There is possible downside risk from the recent declines in auto sales as well as declines in gasoline prices. Meanwhile. June CPI should post a flat headline as well with a 0.2% increase for the core. This compares to the May figures which had the headline down 0.1% and the core up 0.1% and April where the headline was 0.2% and the core 0.1%. An anticipated dip in gasoline prices could weigh on the release too.

    US CPI and Industrial Production – June industrial production data is out today and should post a 0.3% increase for the headline following a flat rate in May and a 1.1% bounce in April. Capacity utilization should tick up to 76.8% from 76.6% in May and 76.7% in April. Mining and factory employment both climbed in the June which could provide a tailwind to the release.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Visit Website to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #34
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    Date : 17th July 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th July 2017.


    FX News Today

    The conundrum of improved growth and slowing inflation continues to bedevil central bankers as the opposing dynamics lead to conflicting policy prescriptions on normalization. But there’s a new wrinkle as QT, quantitative tightening, comes into view, alongside the more traditional tool of rate management, each of which have differing implications for bond markets. And the differing views of hawks and doves have resulted in a clash of commentary that’s done more to confuse and vex the markets regarding the course of policy, rather than provide stability through transparency. The markets will remain hypersensitive to policy actions and policy-speak near term, while keeping a close eye on inflation and growth data.

    United States: U.S. markets will continue to assess Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony last week, where she remained optimistic on growth, but hedged on “transitory” inflation outlook. Headlining the data slate will be June housing starts, July PMIs and trade prices, none of which will be crucial for trading. Housing starts (Wednesday) are forecast rising to a 1,190k pace in June following the 5.5% drop to 1,092k in May. However, a rise in construction jobs last month suggests upside risk. The July Empire State index (Monday) is seen falling back to 15.0 after jumping 20.8 points to 19.8 in June (which was the highest since September 2014). Also, the July Philly Fed index (Thursday) should dip to 24.0 following the 11.2 slide to 27.6 in June. The 43.3 print from February was the highest going back to January 1984. The June trade price data (Tuesday) will be of interest. Import prices are forecast falling 0.5% after dipping 0.3% in May, with petroleum the main factor behind the weakness. Export prices should edge up 0.1% following a 0.7% drop in May where declines in food and ag prices weighed. Other releases on this week’s calendar are the NAHB homebuilder survey for July (Tuesday), May Treasury capital flows (Tuesday), and weekly initial jobless claims (Thursday).

    Canada: Canada’s calendar has a healthy helping of economic data this week, but nothing from the Bank of Canada. However, the economic data could influence expectations for the September announcement. The June existing home sales report is expected to be released on Monday, with a 5.0% y/y drop projected for total sales. Manufacturing (Wednesday) is seen rising 1.0% m/m in May after the 1.1% improvement in April. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to grow 0.3% m/m in May after the 0.8% gain in April. CPI is expected to dip 0.1% in June (m/m, nsa) after the 0.1% rise in May, leaving a slowing in the annual growth rate to 1.0% in June from the 1.3% y/y pace in May. But the June CPI is of little importance to the near-term policy outlook, given that the BoC is looking through the temporary factors (decline in auto prices and electricity costs) that are holding back total and core inflation growth. CPI will become more important later this year, when the temporary nature of the presumed factors restraining inflation will be tested.

    Europe: All eyes will be on the ECB this week as traders look to the central bank for direction. Conflicting messages from ECB officials exacerbated volatility in recent weeks, and nerves are likely to remain high. The ECB is widely expected to be heading for tapering early next year, although Praet and Draghi are wary of committing prematurely to exit steps and have been instrumental in keeping the QE easing bias in place. Data releases this week are unlikely to add further ammunition to the arguments of the hawks at the council. The final reading of Eurozone June HICP inflation (Monday) is widely expected to be confirmed at just 1.3% y/y from 1.4% y/y in May, and clearly below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability. However, base effects from energy prices are actually largely to blame for the slowing versus May, and core inflation ticked higher in the June preliminary to 1.2% y/y from 1.0%, as did the German headline rate. Still, with German PPI inflation seen slowing in May, the doves around Praet and Draghi will continue to argue that the low inflation environment still warrants a substantial degree of monetary stimulus. The ECB has acknowledged though, that growth is strengthening and that adverse deflation scenarios are no longer looking likely. That prompted the move to a neutral stance on rates in June. And, the expected further improvement in Eurozone consumer confidence (Thursday) to -1.1 from -1.3 should back expectations for ongoing robust growth going ahead. German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday) meanwhile is likely to reflect market concerns about the impact of tapering as global central banks eye exit steps. The Eurozone also has current account data for May (Thursday), and there’s a German 30-year Bund sale (Wednesday). The ECB releases its bank lending survey (Tuesday).

    UK: This week’s schedule brings the June inflation report (Tuesday), where expected headline CPI to remain at 2.9% y/y, a four-year high. The sharp y/y weakening in sterling following the Brexit vote in June last year has kindled inflation, and at least three of the current eight-member MPC committee (normally nine, with one position currently vacant) are now itching to reverse last August’s 25 bp cut in the repo rate. Official retail sales for June (Thursday) has us expecting a 0.2% m/m rebound after the sharp 1.2% contracting on May.

    Japan: Japan is closed on Monday for Marine Day holiday. The BoJ meeting (Wednesday, Thursday) will be a focal point given the world-wide interest in all things central banking. No changes in policy are expected in either rates or stimulus. The Bank may, however, downgrade its inflation outlook, while upping expectations for the economy, consistent with recent global patters and according to recent market chatter. Data includes the June trade report which expected the balance to flip to a JPY 500.0 bln surplus, from the JPY 204.2 bln shortfall in May. The softer yen likely supported a bounce in exports after three months of weakness. The May all-industry index (Thursday) should fall 1.0% m/m based on declines in retail sales and industrial production, after the prior 2.1% increase.

    Australia: The June employment report (Thursday) is the highlight this week. A 20.0k gain is projected following the 42.0k improvement in May. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 5.6% from 5.5%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday) releases the minutes to the July 4 meeting where the cash rate was left steady at 1.50% and Governor Lowe’s statement was consistent with an unchanged stance over the rest of the year as the August 2016 easing continues to roll through the economy.

    New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has Q2 CPI (Tuesday), expected to rise 0.1% (q/q, sa) after the 1.0% gain in Q1. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s next meeting is on August 10.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #35
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    Date : 18th July 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th July 2017.


    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south even as rate hike expectations are being pushed out, as investors turn their focus on U.S. politics and rising doubts over Trump’s reform agenda. In China markets continued to fret about the prospect of tighter regulations and Sunac China Holdings Ltd came under pressure in Hong Kong amid media reports that banks are looking into the company’s credit risk. A stronger Yen meanwhile weighed on exporters as markets re-opened after a long weekend, although it was the AUD that outperformed. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down, while oil prices are holding marginally above USD 46 per barrel. Today’s calendar has German ZEW investor sentiment as well as the ECB’s bank lending survey, while the U.K. has inflation numbers for June. The ECB meeting on Thursday continues to hang over Eurozone markets, with investors concerned that Draghi may already drop the easing bias on QE.

    U.S. reports: U.S. Empire State manufacturing index dropped 10.0 points to 9.8 in July, lower than expected, after rebounding 20.8 points to 19.8 in June. The latter was the highest since September 2014. Declines were broad-based. The employment component fell for a third consecutive month, sliding to 3.9 from 7.7, with the workweek at unchanged from 8.5. New orders fell to 13.3 from 18.1. But, prices paid edged up to 21.3 from 20.0, with prices received at 11.0 from 10.8. The 6-month general business outlook index eased to 34.9 from 41.7, with employment at 11.8 from 12.3. The future new order index was 33.4 from 42.2, with prices paid at 30.7 from 33.1 and prices received at 15.7 from 13.8. Capital expenditures are at 15.0 from 20.8, with technology spending at 11.8 from 11.5.

    Final June EMU HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.3% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and down from 1.4% y/y in May. The breakdown confirmed that the deceleration in the headline rate was mainly due to lower energy price inflation, which dropped back to just 1.9% y/y from 4.5% y/y in the previous month. Services price inflation meanwhile accelerated to 1.6% y/y. Still, while core inflation moved up from the 0.9% y/y in May, at 1.1% y/y it remains far below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability and prices for non-energy industrial goods rose just 0.4% y/y, so plenty there for the doves at the ECB to argue with. Against that background Draghi is likely to stick to the message from June at this week’s council meeting and try to calm tapering nerves ahead of the summer break.

    Main Macro Events Today

    German ZEW – ZEW investor confidence today is likely to reflect market concerns about the impact of tapering as global central banks eye exit steps. A slight decline in the headline July number to 18.3 is expected from June’s 18.6. Those are still strong level, indicating that optimists outnumber pessimists, and so should not spark fresh growth concerns, although after some disappointing U.S. data and cautious comments from Yellen, it will underpin the halt in the rise in yields.

    UK PPI & CPI – The June inflation report expected with headline CPI to remain at 2.9% y/y, a four-year high. The sharp y/y weakening in sterling following the Brexit vote in June last year has kindled inflation, and at least three of the current eight-member MPC committee (normally nine, with one position currently vacant) are now itching to reverse last August’s 25 bp cut in the repo rate. The PPI for June expected to decrease at -1.0% from -1.3% last month.

    BoE Gov. Carney – BoE Governor Carney will give a speech today at the unveil of the new £10 note, in Hampshire.

    US Trade Data & NAHB – The June trade price data will be of interest. Import prices are forecast falling 0.5% after dipping 0.3% in May, with petroleum the main factor behind the weakness. Export prices should edge up 0.1% following a 0.7% drop in May where declines in food and ag prices weighed. Other releases for today are the NAHB homebuilder survey for July and May Treasury capital flows .

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Visit Website to READ more Market news.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  6. #36
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    Date : 19th July 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th July 2017.


    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher, as USD steadied. The ASX is outperforming despite ongoing strength in AUD and FTSE 100 futures are rising in tandem with U.S. futures. Long yields picked up in the U.S. and Japan, but the September Bund contract moved higher in after hour trade yesterday, suggesting opening gains in Bund futures, after yesterday’s sharp drop in European yields. Oil prices are slightly down, but the front end WTI future is holding above USD 46 per barrel. Today’s European calendar is quiet, with a German 30-year auction and Eurozone construction output the only highlights, leaving the focus firmly on U.S. political events and the ECB meeting tomorrow.

    ACA reform: A smattering of healthcare headlines in wake of the ACA reform abandonment and now chorus of outright repeal calls suggests the debate appears to be disintegrating further. Republican senators Collins, Portman and Capito indicated that they would vote against a repeal without a replacement plan. In contrast, Vice President Pence said he and Trump would “fully support” leader McConnell’s decision to move forward with a bill that only repeals Obamacare in a “fresh start.” Pence warned that congressional inaction “is not an option and congress needs to do their job.” Senate Democratic leader Schumer said an Obamacare repeal without replacement would be a “disaster.” Meanwhile, House Budget Chairwoman Black said she expects the Republican budget to pass the panel and full House vote. Trump’s postscript on ACA reform was aired live and he confirmed that he was “disappointed” that after hearing repeal/replace on healthcare for 7-years that the votes weren’t there. He didn’t consider the renegade votes “disloyal,” but said that more effort would need to take place to get more Republicans in seats in 2018. Trump then reiterated his fallback plan of letting Obamacare fail and predicted the Dems would come back at that point to replace it or come up with something else.

    U.S. reports: import prices fell 0.2% in June, with export prices off 0.2% as well. The 0.3% decline in May import prices was revised up to -0.1%, while May export prices were nudged to -0.5% from -0.7% previously. Petroleum import prices dropped another 2.2% (a fourth straight monthly slide) versus -1.2% previously (revised from -3.9%). As for export prices, agriculture prices dropped 1.5% from -1.6%, with foods, beverages at -1.6% from -2.0%, with industrial supplies flat from -1.3%. Excluding ag, export prices were flat. Slowing inflation remains the theme into the summer months and that should support Treasury gains. U.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index fell 2 points to 64 in July, below expectations, after falling 3 points to 66 in June (revised from 67). It’s the lowest since 63 in October, and below the 67 6-month average, but it is well up from the 58 a year ago. The current single-family sales index dropped 2 points 70 from 72 last month. The future sales index also declined 2 points to 73 from 75. The index of prospective buyer traffic slid to 48 after dropping 2 ticks to 49 previously. The NAHB indicated tariffs on Canadian lumber are weighing.

    Eurozone: UK June CPI unexpectedly softened to 2.6% y/y after May’s cycle-high rate of 2.9% y/y. The median forecast had been for an unchanged 2.9% outcome. The ebb is in sync with the directional pattern seen in inflation readings in other key economies in June, although price pressures in the UK remain relatively more elevated due to the inflationary consequences of the sharp y/y sterling decline following the Brexit vote at the end of June last year. A decline in motor fuels was a key factor driving the headline rate lower, along with the prices of recreational and cultural goods and services. German ZEW investor confidence weaker than expected, with the expectations reading falling back to 17.5 in July from 18.6 in the previous month. Expectations had been for a correction in sentiment amid the realization that global central bank support has peaked, but the dip is still more pronounced than anticipated, especially as the current conditions indicator also fell back. More arguments then for the doves at the ECB who are eager not to let markets price in tapering steps too early and we expect Draghi to try and calm nerves at this week’s council meeting, which will be the last ahead of a summer break, with the next meeting only scheduled for September.

    Main Macro Events Today

    US Housing Starts – Housing starts are forecast rising to a 1,160k pace in June following the 5.5% drop to 1,092k in May. However, a rise in construction jobs last month suggests upside risk.

    Canada Manufacturing – Manufacturing shipments, due today, are expected to reveal a 1.0% m/m gain in May after the 1.1% rise in April. Forecast is supported by a 1.3% improvement in export values during May. However, gold shipments to the U.K. were a driver of total exports, suggesting some downside risk for our manufacturing shipments projection. An as-expected rebound in shipments would be supportive of the “improving” narrative for Canada’s economy this year, and hence underpin expectations for one more rate hike this year.

    Japanese Trade – Data includes the June trade report. The balance expected to flip to a JPY 500.0 bln surplus, from the JPY 204.2 bln shortfall in May. The Exports and Imports expected to fall by 5.4% and 3.2% respectively.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Visit Website to READ more Market news.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  7. #37
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2017
    Posts
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    Date : 20th July 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th July 2017.



    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly higher, led by Japan, as the BoJ kept its accommodative policy unchanged and the Yen weakened. FTSE 100 futures are also higher, while U.S. futures are narrowly mixed. The eyes are now turning to the ECB, which is expected to follow the BoJ’s lead and keep not only current policy, but the forward guidance unchanged. There is some lingering concern that the central bank could already drop the easing bias on QE at today’s meeting, so Bunds could get a boost from Draghi’s attempts to calm tapering nerves ahead of the summer break. The European data calendar has U.K. retail sales, as well as Eurozone current account and BoP data for May.

    U.S. reports:. housing starts rebounded 8.3% to a 1.215 mln pace in June, better than forecast, after the 2.8% decline in May to 1.122 mln. The gain breaks a string of three straight monthly declines, and it’s only the second increase of the year. Single family starts rose 6.3% versus -2.9% previously, while multifamily starts jumped 13.3% from -2.4%. Building permits increased 7.4% to 1.254 after falling 4.9% to 1.168 mln. Regionally, starts surged in the Northeast (83.7%) and in the Midwest (22.0%), and were up in the West (1.6%), while they declined in the South (-3.8%). Housing completions improved 5.2% to 1.203 mln after increasing 4.2% to 1.144 mln.

    Canada: manufacturing shipment values grew 1.1% in May, as expected, but after a sharp downward revision in April to a 0.4% gain (was +1.1%). A 4.2% gain in transport equipment sales and a 2.4% rise in chemical sales drove the increase total manufacturing shipments during May. Manufacturing sales slipped 0.1% when motor vehicles, parts and accessories are excluded. A total of 16 out of 21 industries reported an improvement in sales values. Durable goods sales grew 2.2% while non-durables dipped 0.3%. Notably, lower prices knocked petroleum and coal industry sales values 3.4% lower in May. Manufacturing sales volumes expanded 1.1% m/m in May, supportive of continued momentum in May GDP. A 0.2% m/m gain in May GDP is expected after the 0.2% rise in April. The report is supportive of the Bank’s upbeat growth outlook, in turn underpinning projections for a near term rate hike. Another 25 bp move is expected in October after no change in September.

    German: PPI inflation fell back to 2.4% y/y in June, from 2.5% y/y in the previous month. A tad higher than anticipated, but still continuing the recent downtrend as oil prices turn out to be weaker than previously thought. Headline Eurozone inflation also fell back in June as energy price inflation eased, so there is no really new message from the German PPI numbers, although at 2.4% y/y, the numbers remain elevated.

    Main Macro Events Today

    UK Retail Sales – Official retail sales for June expected at a 0.2% m/m rebound after the sharp 1.2% contracting on May.

    ECB Rate Decision, Monetary Policy statement & Conference – After the ECB removed the easing bias on rates in June, but still maintained an easing bias on QE, the central bank expected to keep policy parameters unchanged at today’s council meeting, which will be followed by a longer summer break. The message today is likely to remain that the economy may be improving but still needs a substantial degree of monetary support and cautious remarks from Draghi should underpin bonds, even if a no-change outcome is widely expected.

    US Jobless Claims – U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 245k in the week-ended July 15. Meanwhile the July Philly Fed index should dip to 24.0 following the 11.2 slide to 27.6 in June.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Visit Website to READ more Market news.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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