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IMF Says Global Growth To Be Driven By Advanced Economies
Global growth will be driven this year by a rebound in advanced economies that benefit from lower oil prices, while the economic situation will remain sluggish in the emerging market and developing economies, the International Monetary Fund said in a report on Tuesday.
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In its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook, the IMF retained the world growth forecast for this year at 3.5 percent. The lender raised the growth forecast for next year to 3.8 percent from the 3.7 percent predicted in an interim report in January.
The Washington-based IMF acknowledged the growing divergence in growth prospects across the world, calling them 'uneven'. Growth is projected to strengthen in advanced economies this year relative to 2014 but weaken in emerging market and developing economies.
"A number of complex forces are shaping the prospects around the world," IMF Economic Counselor and Director of Research Olivier Blanchard said.
He added, "Legacies of both the financial and the euro area crises—weak banks and high levels of public, corporate, and household debt—are still weighing on spending and growth in some countries. Low growth in turn makes deleveraging a slow process."
Growth in the advanced economies was forecast to rise to 2.4 percent from 1.8 percent last year, unchanged from January. The growth rate was seen remaining unchanged in 2016.
However, the U.S. economic growth forecast for this year was lowered to 3.1 percent from 3.6 percent. The projection for next year was also lowered to 3.1 percent from 3.3 percent.
Domestic demand in the U.S. is expected to gain support from lower oil prices, more moderate fiscal adjustment, and continued support from an accommodative monetary policy stance, despite the projected gradual rise in interest rates and some drag on net exports from recent dollar appreciation, the IMF said.
The lender also euro area growth is showing 'signs of picking up,', supported by lower oil prices, low interest rates, and a weaker euro. The growth forecast for the Eurozone for this year was raised to 1.5 percent from 1.2 percent. The projection for next year was also upped to 1.6 percent from 1.4 percent.
Growth forecasts for the big four Eurozone economies - Germany, France, Italy and Spain - were also raised.
Outside of the euro area, the growth projection for U.K. for this year was retained at 2.7 percent, but the forecast for next year was cut to 2.3 percent.
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