Tifia Daily Market Analytics

NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
15/07/2019
The US dollar continues to decline, while investors remain impressed by the statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Last week, Powell signaled the Fed’s readiness to lower interest rates. Investors are waiting for such a decrease already at the Fed meeting on July 30-31. As Powell put it, the purpose of such a decline is to protect the American economy from the risks associated with a slowdown in global economic growth and the uncertainties created by conflicts in international trade.
Last Friday, another Fed official, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and a member of the FOMC, Charles Evans, also spoke in favor of lowering interest rates in order to counteract inflation weakness. Evans expects two cuts in the federal funds key interest rate this year.
In the wake of the weakening of the US dollar, the NZD / USD pair broke through on Monday the key resistance level of 0.6710 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and continued to grow at the beginning of the European session, reaching another strong resistance level of 0.6735 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
In case of consolidation in this zone, the growth of NZD / USD may continue towards the resistance levels of 0.6865 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction in the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8820, which began in July 2014), 0.6910 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 0.7000 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
The signal for sales will be the breakdown of the support level of 0.6685 (EMA144 on the daily chart). Immediate targets of decline are at support levels of 0.6664 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6633 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
The trigger for further NZD / USD movement may be the publication (at 22:45 GMT) of the consumer price index for New Zealand for the 2nd quarter, which is a key indicator for estimating inflation. If the forecast is confirmed (+ 0.6% against + 0.1% in the 1st quarter and + 1.7% against + 1.5% in the 1st quarter in annual terms)
the New Zealand dollar is likely to strengthen, including against the US dollar.
Levels of support: 0.6710, 0.6685, 0.6664, 0.6633, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Resistance Levels: 0.6735, 0.6800, 0.6865, 0.6910

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 0.6680. Stop Loss 0.6745. Take-Profit 0.6664, 0.6633, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260



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GBP/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/16/2019
The GBP / USD pair failed to develop an upward corrective movement above the short-term resistance level of 1.2540 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), and on Tuesday fell to 1.2410, resuming the decline in the global downtrend.
Probably, market participants have already taken into account in the price reduction of the Fed rate on July 31 and again focused on the problems around Brexit.
Boris Johnson, who is Theresa May’s most likely successor as prime minister, reiterated on Monday that he was ready for a tough Brexit on October 31, when the UK should finally withdraw from the EU, unless an agreement is reached between the parties.
The pound was also unable to get support after the publication on Tuesday of positive data, according to which, the UK labor market remains in force, despite the slowdown in the economy.
Below the key resistance level of 1.2900 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) long-term negative dynamics prevail. Short positions with a long-term goal, located at the support level of 1.2000, are preferable (2017 lows and Fibonacci 0% level of the correction to a decline of the GBP / USD pair in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
In the alternative scenario, the corrective growth of GBP / USD may resume, and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.2540, GBP / USD will go to resistance levels of 1.2630 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 1.2765 (June highs, February lows).
Above the resistance levels 1.2765, 1.2800 (upper line of the ascending channel on the daily chart) growth is unlikely.
At 17:00 will begin the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Last week, he unambiguously hinted at the inclination of the Fed leadership to ease monetary policy. Now investors will be waiting for new signals from him in relation to the Fed’s actions at a meeting on July 30 - 31. If he does not touch this topic, the reaction to his speech will be weak.
Support Levels: 1.2400, 1.2365
Resistance Levels: 1.2480, 1.2540, 1.2580, 1.2630, 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800

Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2520. Take-Profit 1.2400, 1.2365, 1.2300
Buy Stop 1.2520. Stop Loss 1.2420. Take-Profit 1.2540, 1.2580, 1.2630, 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800



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USD/CAD: Current Dynamics
07/17/2019
Published on Tuesday, the US Department of Commerce data exceeded market expectations. Compared to May, retail sales in June increased by 0.4% and 3.4% (in annual terms). The forecast assumed an increase of 0.1%. In April and May, sales rose 0.4%. This growth has been going on for four months in a row and indicates consumer confidence in the country's economy.
Consumer spending is the main source of growth for the US economy, as they account for two thirds of GDP.
After the release of new data on retail sales, the prospects for a drastic reduction in interest rates have weakened. All three key reports issued after the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee for the Fed, namely, reports on employment, consumer prices and retail sales, were very strong.
Market participants still take into account the rate cut at the Fed meeting on July 30 - 31. However, the probability of lowering interest rates by 50 basis points has decreased, and lowering the rate by 25 or 10 basis points, which would be appropriate after Powell’s statements, is already taken into account in the dollar quotes.
Thus, the space for a further fall in the dollar has decreased. Also take into account the propensity of other central banks to soften policies.
From the news for today, which could significantly increase the volatility in the foreign exchange market, we are waiting for the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data on Canada.
As expected, the core consumer price index (Core CPI) rose in June by 0.1% (+ 2.6% in annual terms). This is positive data that will strengthen CAD when confirming the forecast. Conversely, weak values and indexes worse than forecast will have a negative impact on CAD. Data worse than the forecast can be a driver for the corrective growth of the pair USD / CAD.
The signal for the resumption of long positions will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.3071 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). The growth target in the upward correction is resistance levels of 1.3185 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3250 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
In the event of a breakdown of the resistance level, 1.3250 USD / CAD will head towards the resistance levels of 1.3520 (2019 highs), 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs), which will indicate a full recovery of the bullish trend.
Breakdown of the local support level of 1.3045 will direct USD / CAD towards the lower boundary of the downward channel on the daily chart and at 1.2975.
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3015, 1.2975, 1.2850, 1.2740
Resistance Levels: 1.3071, 1.3140, 1.3185, 1.3250, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.3035. Stop Loss 1.3110. Take-Profit 1.3015, 1.2975, 1.2850, 1.2740
Buy Stop 1.3110. Stop Loss 1.3035. Take-Profit 1.3140, 1.3185, 1.3250, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790


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AUD/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/18/2019
Despite the correctional growth that began in the middle of last month, AUD / USD continues to trade below key resistance levels of 0.7050 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7100 (EMA200 on the daily chart), remaining in a long-term bearish trend. The last global wave of decline began in July 2014 from 0.9500. The minima of this wave and of 2016 are located near the level of 0.6830. The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the support level of 0.6980 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Growth above the resistance levels of 0.7050, 0.7100 is unlikely. Below these key resistance levels, short positions remain preferred. Mostly negative trend.
Intermediate reduction targets are located at support levels of 0.6910 (July lows), 0.6830 (minimums of the global decline wave, which began in July 2014 from 0.9500); long-term - at around 0.6770 (2019 lows).
Australia's leading labor market indicators point to a further slowdown in employment growth. It is likely that at this pace that testifies more about a slowdown than about the growth of the Australian labor market, the RBA leadership may go for a further easing of monetary conditions.
Unemployment remains at 5.2%, which is much higher than the forecast of the RBA, which assumed that in the 2nd quarter it will be 5%. Earlier, the RBA stated that they would like to see a fall in unemployment to 4.5% or less, as this will help accelerate wage growth and inflation rates.
From the news today, which can increase volatility in the foreign exchange market, including in the pair AUD / USD, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of the macro statistics block from the USA. Weekly data on the number of unemployment claims in the US can cause an increase in volatility in trading in USD, if they are very different from the predicted values, especially for the worse.
Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6980, 0.6957, 0.6910, 0.6865, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Resistance Levels: 0.7050, 0.7100

Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7060. Take-Profit 0.7000, 0.6980, 0.6957, 0.6910, 0.6865, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Buy Stop 0.7060. Stop Loss 0.6990. Take-Profit 0.7100


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WTI Oil: Current Trends and Recommendations
07/19/2019
Despite a report by the US Department of Energy, published last Wednesday and showing a decline in oil reserves in the country, oil prices dropped sharply. Oil reserves in the US declined last week by 3.1 million barrels to 455.9 million barrels. However, it is still about 4% above the average 5-year value for this time of year.
The data of the Ministry of Energy also showed an unexpected increase in gasoline reserves by 3.6 million barrels and an increase in distillate stocks by 5.7 million barrels, to 136.2 million barrels.
The growth of stocks of petroleum products, according to economists, is due to lower demand in the United States and a decline in exports.
On Thursday, WTI quotes fell to 54.72. In total, since the beginning of the week, the price of WTI crude oil has lost approximately 7.5% by now.
On Friday, oil prices rebounded slightly after a sharp fall the day before. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, WTI crude oil traded near the mark of 56.00 dollars per barrel.
Nevertheless, due to the US-China trade conflict and due to the increase in the volume of shale oil production in the US, oil prices are likely to continue to decline.
On Friday, oil market participants will pay attention to the report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports showed a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States, to 784 units at the moment. If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices. Publication of this report is scheduled for 17:00 (GMT).
The price of WTI crude oil has broken through key support levels of 58.80 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 56.80 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) and continues to decline, trading on Friday near the mark of 56.00 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the European session.
Negative dynamics prevail, short positions are preferable.
Further decline will mean the return of oil prices into a bearish trend.
In the alternative scenario, the growth and price fixing in the zone above the resistance levels of 58.80, 59.50 (Fibonacci level 50%) will speak about the resumption of the bull trend. The signal for this will be the breakdown of short-term resistance levels of 57.65 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 58.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support levels: 55.40, 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 56.80, 57.65, 58.00, 58.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 55.30. Stop-Loss 58.40. Take-Profit 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Buy Stop 58.40. Stop-Loss 55.30. Take-Profit 58.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50


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EUR/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/22/2019
Last Thursday, the dollar fell sharply. The reason was the statements of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams. In his opinion, the Fed should take prompt action when signs of a weakening economy appear. Investors took his words as a signal to a potential rate cut in July by half a percentage point.
However, a further weakening of the dollar did not occur. Last Friday, the Fed said that the talk about lowering the key rate by half a percentage point and other topics that the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, said on Thursday, more relate to theoretical assumptions during periods of obvious contraction of the economy. Recent economic data do not indicate the risk of a sharp downturn in the US economy, according to Fed officials.
The rate cut by 0.25% at the meeting on July 30 - 31 was mainly already taken into account in prices, and the probability of a more aggressive easing of the Fed’s monetary policy decreased.
Meanwhile, investors will follow the ECB meeting. On Thursday (at 11:45 GMT) the ECB decision on rates will be published. It is expected that the leaders of the ECB at this meeting so far will keep the current monetary policy unchanged, but may declare a propensity for a softer policy.
The ECB press conference will also begin on Thursday, at 12:30 (GMT).
At the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD is trading in a narrow range and near the 1.1215 mark. The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the local support level of 1.1195 (July lows).
Long-term negative dynamics remains below the resistance level of 1.1340 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). In the current situation and below the resistance level of 1.1285 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), short positions look preferable.
Support Levels: 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1241, 1.1256, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340, 1.1410, 1.1445

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1245. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100
Buy Stop 1.1245. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1256, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340


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NZD/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/23/2019
In the middle of the month, the NZD / USD broke through the key resistance level of 0.6715 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and reached a 4-month high near the mark of 0.6790.
The reason for the growth of the pair was mainly the weakening of the US dollar after the Fed leaders expressed a propensity for a softer monetary policy.
Nevertheless, the reduction in the Fed rate at the meeting on July 30 - 31 by 0.25% has already been taken into account, mainly in prices.
If, on the part of the Fed’s management before this date, there is no further wave of verbal intervention regarding the desirability of a lower interest rate, then a further decline in the US dollar is unlikely.
This is well demonstrated by the US dollar index DXY, which is growing today for the third day in a row. DXY dollar index futures traded at the beginning of today's European session near the 97.20 mark, 40 points higher than the closing price last Friday.
At the same time, the slowdown in the global economy and the increase in import duties negatively affect the export-oriented New Zealand economy. The ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China makes market participants cautious about prospects.
Today, NZD / USD has been falling for the 3rd day in a row, trading above the key support level of 0.6715 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
After the breakdown of the support level of 0.6690 (EMA144 on the daily chart), short positions will again be relevant with the targets of decline at the support levels of 0.6665 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.6620.
More distant reduction targets are located at support levels of 0.6490 (2019 lows), 0.6430 (2018 lows), 0.6260 (0% Fibonacci level and minimums of the global decline of the pair from 0.8820 mark).
The signal for the resumption of purchases will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 0.6753 (ЕМА200 on the 15-minute chart) with targets at the resistance levels of 0.6790, 0.6865 (Fibonacci level 23.6%).
Volatility in the NZD may sharply increase at 10:45 pm (GMT), when data on New Zealand's foreign trade balance for June will be published, and if the data differ greatly from the forecast values.
So far, above the support level of 0.6715, the positive dynamics of NZD / USD remains.
Support levels: 0.6715, 0.6690, 0.6665, 0.6620, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Resistance Levels: 0.6753, 0.6790, 0.6865, 0.6910

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6680. Stop Loss 0.6755. Take-Profit 0.6665, 0.6620, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Buy Stop 0.6755. Stop Loss 0.6680. Take-Profit 0.6790, 0.6865, 0.6920



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EUR/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/24/2019
On Wednesday, EUR / USD declines for the fourth day in a row. Long-term negative dynamics remains below the resistance level of 1.1340 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). A strong level that holds EUR / USD from a more significant correction growth is the resistance level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014). In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1285, EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1340 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) with the intermediate goal at the resistance level of 1.1300 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
A more aggressive scenario involves the return of EUR / USD to the zone of resistance levels 1.1410 (monthly maximum), 1.1445. However, this is an unlikely scenario.
In the current situation and below the resistance level of 1.1285, only short positions should be considered.
The PMI purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector in Germany, published on Wednesday, fell to a minimum of 84.1 in 84 months in July from 45.0 in June. The accelerated decline in industrial production in Germany indicates a growing recession risk in this country with the largest economy in Europe.
Investors expect the ECB at its next meeting on Thursday to not change its monetary policy, but Mario Draghi is likely to set the stage for easing monetary policy later, in September or November.
Expectations of such a decision by the ECB put strong pressure on the euro. The publication of the ECB decision on rates will be held on Thursday (at 11:45 GMT), the ECB press conference will begin at 12:30.
Obviously, before these events, the euro and the EUR / USD pair will remain under pressure.
Support Levels: 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1030
Resistance Levels: 1.1180, 1.1195, 1.1215, 1.1248, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340, 1.1410, 1.1445

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1125. Stop Loss 1.1160. Take-Profit 1.1100, 1.1030
Buy Stop 1.1160. Stop-Loss 1.1125. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1195, 1.1215, 1.1248, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340



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XAU/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/25/2019
In anticipation of easing monetary policy by the world's largest central banks, global stock indices are rising. Gold quotes are also rising. In addition to expectations of easing monetary policy, primarily from the Fed, the rise in gold prices is stimulated by the preservation of geopolitical tensions and the risks of a slowdown in the global economy against the backdrop of international trade conflicts.
Today, the ECB meeting is in the center of attention of traders. The ECB rate decision will be published at 11:45 (GMT), and the ECB press conference will begin at 12:30. It is widely expected that the ECB will keep its monetary policy unchanged today. More interest to traders will be the press conference. It is highly likely that the head of the bank, Mario Draghi, announces a reduction in the ECB interest rate in September and, possibly, in November, as well as a restart of the quantitative easing program in the amount of 2.6 trillion euros in December.
During this period of time (11:45 - 12:30 GMT) a sharp increase in volatility is expected in the entire financial market, including in gold quotes.
Last week, the XAU / USD pair reached a new 6-year high near the mark of 1452.00.
The signal for short-term sales will be the breakdown of the support level of 1420.00 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) with the target at the support levels of 1394.00 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1380.00 (Fibonacci level 38.2%). Despite a slight decrease in quotations (to the current mark of 1426.00), the bullish trend of gold remains.
Above support levels 1394.00, 1380.00 long positions are preferable. A signal for purchases will be the breakdown of local resistance levels of 1440.00, 1452.00. The breakdown of the resistance level of 1485.00 (Fibonacci 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00) will confirm the completion of the corrective decline and the resumption of price growth.
Support Levels: 1420.00, 1394.00, 1380.00, 1357.00, 1346.00, 1324.00, 1315.00, 1298.00, 1278.00, 1268.00, 1253.00
Resistance Levels: 1440.00, 1452.00, 1485.00

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1413.00. Stop-Loss 1431.00. Take-Profit 1394.00, 1380.00
Buy Stop 1431.00. Stop Loss 1413.00. Take-Profit 1440.00, 1452.00, 1485.00


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EUR/USD: US GDP exceeded forecast
07/26/2019
Current Dynamics
GDP growth is "not bad, considering" the Fed's interest rate policy. That is how American President Donald Trump reacted to the publication on Friday of data on US GDP for the 2nd quarter, which exceeded market expectations.
The Commerce Department reported on Friday (12:30 GMT) a 2.1% increase in gross domestic product in the 2nd quarter. Economists had expected GDP growth of 1.8%.
Trump again lashed out at the Fed after the publication of GDP data, calling the US central bank "a burden hanging on our neck".
Increased consumer spending leveled the fall in investment by American companies. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy, in the 2nd quarter, adjusted for inflation, rose by 4.3% per annum, which is a maximum since the end of 2017, after rising by 1.1% per annum in the previous quarter.
Government spending also spurred GDP growth, adding 5.0% per annum.
The general inflation indicator also rose. The price index for personal consumption expenditure (PCE) in the 2nd quarter rose 2.3% after rising 0.4% in the 1st quarter. The base PCE index, which does not take into account the prices of food and energy, rose by 1.8%.
Thus, the ten-year period of economic growth in the United States continued, despite foreign trade tensions and a slowdown in the global economy.
The Commerce Department’s report released Friday showed little impact on expectations that the Federal Reserve would lower its key interest rate by 0.25% at a meeting July 30 - 31.
However, the dollar rose strongly on Friday. His positive dynamics were also spurred by statements by Lawrence Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council, who said that the United States would not intervene in the markets in order to lower the rate of its currency.
At the same time, the euro continued to decline against the dollar after the European Central Bank on Thursday signaled its willingness to lower short-term interest rates and restart its large-scale bond purchase program. The current interest rate of the ECB from 2016 is at the level of 0%, and the deposit rate at the level of -0.4%. In a related statement, the ECB expressed concern about the weakening European economy and global negative factors, such as international trade conflicts and Brexit.
The next meeting of the ECB is scheduled for September 12, and it is likely that a whole package of measures will be adopted at this meeting, including a reduction in the interest rate of 0.25% and a restart of the quantitative easing program in the amount of 2.6 trillion euros.

At the time of this writing, the EUR / USD pair was trading near the 1.1120 mark, 25 points lower than the opening price of the trading day on Friday. The negative dynamics of EUR / USD persists after the pair reached a new annual minimum on Thursday near the 1.1100 mark.
In the current situation, short positions look relevant and safer.
Below resistance levels of 1.1335 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1290 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics remain.
An upward correction is also possible, but so far no higher than the short-term resistance level of 1.1233 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). There are no prerequisites for more confident growth of EUR / USD.
Support Levels: 1.1100, 1.1030
Resistance Levels: 1.1187, 1.1233, 1.1285, 1.1290, 1.1335, 1.1410, 1.1445

Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.1160. Take-Profit 1.1100, 1.1030
Buy Stop 1.1160. Stop Loss 1.1100. Take-Profit 1.1187, 1.1233, 1.1285, 1.1290, 1.1335


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com