Tifia Daily Market Analytics

AUD/USD: Current Dynamics
05/17/2019
The US dollar rose on Thursday. The dollar index DXY, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major currencies, rose by 32 points on Thursday, to 97.68. Published US economic data exceeded expectations, which increased investor risk appetite.
According to data released on Thursday, the number of new homes in the United States has increased by 5.7% in April compared with the previous month and amounted to 1.235 million units; the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits was 212,000 (compared with the forecast of 220,000 and 228,000 in the previous weekly period).
On Friday, investors will pay attention to the publication (at 14:00 GMT) of the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. The index is an indicator of consumer confidence in economic growth. High result strengthens USD, low - weakens
The index is expected to rise to 97.5 in May against 97.2 in April. Probably, the US dollar will receive an additional impetus to growth, if the data is confirmed or will be better than the forecast. The data below the forecast will have a downward pressure on the dollar, but only in the short term.
Under conditions of uncertainty and escalation of international trade wars, the US dollar looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy.
On Friday, the USD growth continues, while the DXY dollar index futures traded at the beginning of the European session near the 97.73 mark.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar is falling after data came out on Thursday indicating that unemployment was rising in Australia to 5.2%. The revised data also indicated that unemployment in March was 5.1% versus a previous estimate of 5.0%.
Rising unemployment increases the pressure on the RBA to lower interest rates. On Tuesday, the RBA Governor will deliver a speech in Brisbane. It is possible that he will signal the imminent reduction in rates. Investors estimate the likelihood of the June decline in RBA rates at 40% and 100% in August.
In the current situation, the most likely scenario is a further decrease in AUD / USD with the closest target at 0.6830 (2016 lows).
Below the key resistance levels of 0.7130 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7170 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable. A strong negative impulse prevails.
Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6800
Resistance Levels: 0.6953, 0.6980, 0.7030, 0.7130, 0.7170

Trading recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6953, 0.6980, 0.7030, 0.7130, 0.7170
[img]httpshttps://i.postimg.cc/RCY0wsbb/100519-DXY.png[/img]


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XAU/USD: Current Dynamics
05/20/2019
At the beginning of the European session, the XAU / USD pair attempts to break through the strong and key support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
In case of a successful breakdown of this level, the targets for further decline will be the support levels of 1248.00 (Fibonacci 50%), 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), 1160.00 (2018 lows), which will mean the return of gold prices in a bearish trend.
An alternative scenario involves the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1287.00, above which the upward trend will resume. The XAU / USD growth targets are resistance levels of 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00 (highs of February and 2019).
On Monday, market participants will closely monitor the performance of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which will begin at 23:00 (GMT). If he signals about the likelihood of a soon decrease in the interest rate, then the dollar may sharply decline, and the price of gold will rise.
Some Fed leaders are concerned about weak inflation. According to them, it is possible that the central bank will have to take measures to speed up inflation, and that they will be ready to lower interest rates. Although Jerome Powell believes that low inflation in the United States is a “temporary phenomenon”.
In the current situation, market participants prefer the dollar. The American economy as a whole is in a better condition than the economies of other countries amid the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China.
Support Levels: 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance Levels: 1287.00, 1296.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1272.00. Stop Loss 1282.00. Take-Profit 1268.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1282.00. Stop Loss 1272.00. Take-Profit 1287.00, 1296.00, 1303.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00



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AUD/USD: Trading Scenarios
05/21/2019
Rising unemployment and low inflation increase the pressure on the RBA to lower interest rates. "During the meeting on June 4, interest rate cuts will be discussed", RBA manager Philip Lowe said on Tuesday. According to him, "new stimulating measures could help accelerate economic growth".
In the minutes from the May meeting of the RBA published today, it is stated that "the lack of improvement in the labor market situation is an argument in favor of lowering interest rates". “Without easing monetary policy in the next six months, we should expect lowering forecasts for GDP growth and inflation”, the RBA leaders concluded.
International trade conflicts, primarily between the United States and China, also pose a risk to the Australian economy. Investors estimate the likelihood of the June decline in RBA rates in more than 50% and 100% in August.
Against this negative background, the decline in AUD / USD continues. Below the key resistance levels of 0.7120 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7170 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable.
AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend. The lows of the global wave of decline, which began in July 2014 from 0.9500, are located near the mark of 0.6830. AUD / USD may reach this level in the coming days.
The objectives of the upward correction are located at the resistance levels of 0.7015 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7100, 0.7120.
However, for now, only short positions should be considered.
Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6800
Resistance Levels: 0.6932, 0.6980, 0.7015, 0.7100, 0.7120

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6932, 0.6980, 0.7015, 0.7100, 0.7120



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USD/CAD: before the publication of the FOMC minutes
05/22/2019
Current Dynamics
Speaking on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concern about the growth of US company debt. However, he did not say anything about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, but noted that “GDP growth rates are stable, US employment rates are quite high, while wages are rising against the backdrop of restrained inflation”.
Inflation remains the focus of Fed officials.
The central bank set a target inflation rate of 2% in 2012, and never once ensured its sustainability. Moreover, this year inflation has weakened, even against the background of strengthening economy and employment growth. The inflationary expectations of market participants and the population have also weakened, and this increases the likelihood that real inflation will not grow as the Fed leaders want.
Most of them believe that this year the rates will not be changed, and those who thought they would be raised refused this opinion. Financial markets are expecting lower rates by the end of this year.
On Wednesday, market participants will carefully study the minutes from the May Fed meeting in order to understand the intentions of the central bank management regarding monetary policy. The publication of the Fed's minutes is scheduled for 18:00 (GMT). Volatility at this time may sharply increase in the financial markets if the protocols contain unexpected statements by the Fed leaders. The harsh rhetoric of their statements regarding monetary policy will cause a strengthening of the USD. Conversely, a penchant for soft politics will cause a weakening of the American dollar.
Lowering the interest rate of the Fed is a strong fundamental factor that will have a negative impact on the USD quotes.
Nevertheless, the demand for the dollar is likely to continue in the context of the escalating US trade conflict with China and amid a slowdown in the European economy, as well as expectations of the results of parliamentary elections (May 23-26) in Europe. At the same time, the RB of Australia and the RB of New Zealand directly declare monetary policy easing.
The dollar in the current situation looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy.
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Technical Analysis
The increase in volatility in the USD / CAD is expected at 12:30 (GMT) in connection with the publication of data on retail sales in Canada. In March, the level of retail sales is expected to increase by 1.0% in the country (after rising + 0.8% in the previous month). This is a positive factor that will support CAD when confirming the forecast.
After the USD / CAD updated its 3-month high near the 1.3520 mark at the end of last month, this currency pair is being adjusted, falling on Wednesday for the 4th consecutive day.
At the beginning of the European session, USD / CAD is trading near 1.3390, below the important support level of 1.3400 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily charts turned to the short positions.
Nevertheless, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3310 (EMA144), 1.3265 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of resistance levels 1.3400, 1.3419 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of long positions.
After the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3520 (2019 highs), the USD / CAD will head towards the resistance levels of 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).
Support Levels: 1.3376, 1.3335, 1.3310, 1.3265
Resistance Levels: 1.3400, 1.3419, 1.3440, 1.3452, 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3370. Stop Loss 1.3435. Take-Profit 1.3335, 1.3310, 1.3265
Buy Stop 1.3435. Stop Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3452, 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790



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NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
05/23/2019
NZD / USD is developing a downward dynamic, actively declining over the past two months. In May, the NZD / USD pair received an additional negative impulse after the RBNZ meeting and after the publication on Wednesday of the minutes of the May Fed meeting.
As is known, at the beginning of the month, the RBNZ reduced the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.5%. In a related statement, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr pointed out that "there is uncertainty about the prospects for the global economy and concerns about trade remain". According to him, “inflationary pressure will grow only slowly”. The forecast for the rate of RBNZ also lowered to 1.4%. Many economists believe that another reduction in the rate of the RBNZ may occur already this year.
At the same time, the Fed leaders are still refraining from changes in monetary policy. This became clear from the minutes from the May Fed meeting, published on Wednesday. "Many participants in the meeting made it clear that their fears from the beginning of the year, to some extent, weakened", the protocols said.
Thus, amid the difference in monetary policy between the Fed and the RBNZ, as well as the trade conflict between the United States and China, a further reduction in NZD / USD with the immediate goal located at the support level of 0.6830 is likely. The farther target of the decline is at the support level of 0.6260 (Fibonacci level of 0% and the lows of the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014).
The signal for the development of an alternative scenario will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 0.6636 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), which may cause an increase to the resistance level of 0.6710 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
Further growth is unlikely. Predominantly strong negative impulse. Below the key resistance level of 0.6755 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6230
Resistance Levels: 0.6500, 0.6535, 0.6580, 0.6623, 0.6710, 0.6755, 0.6800, 0.6855, 0.6940

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 0.6620. Stop Loss 0.6670. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6670. Stop Loss 0.6620. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060


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WTI Oil: Current Dynamics
24/05/2019
On Friday, the price of oil is rising, adjusting after falling the previous day. The aggravation of the trade conflict between China and the United States, as well as the growth of oil reserves in the United States provoked a sharp drop in oil prices.
Futures for WTI oil on the NYMEX closed on Thursday with a decrease of 5.7%, at $ 57.91 per barrel, the lowest level since March 12. It was the sharpest drop since December 24th.
The United States has added the Chinese corporation Huawei to a “black list”, imposing significant trade restrictions on the company.
At the same time, on Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration of the United States Department of Energy presented regular weekly data on oil reserves, which rose last week by 4.7 million barrels to 477 million barrels, the highest since July 2017. Also increased reserves of gasoline and distillates.
WTI crude oil traded at the beginning of the European session at 58.42, by $ 0.35 above the opening price of today.
At 17:00 (GMT), the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes will publish its weekly report on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. If the report indicates an increase in the number of such installations (currently it is 802 units), this may give an additional negative impetus to prices.
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The price of WTI crude oil is trading on Friday below key support levels of 59.90 (EMA200 and EMA144 on the daily chart), 59.50 (Fibonacci 50% level of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the mark of 76.80 to the level of support near 42.14), slightly higher support level 56.85 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Growth in the zone above the levels of 56.85, 59.50, 59.90 will cause the resumption of the bullish trend.
The breakdown of the support level of 56.85 will open the way to the support level of 55.40 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%). Breakdown of this support level will revive the bearish trend.
Support Levels: 57.00, 56.85, 55.40
Resistance Levels: 59.50, 59.90, 61.10, 61.50, 61.85, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 57.80. Stop Loss 58.80. Take-Profit 57.00, 56.85, 55.40
Buy Stop 58.80. Stop Loss 57.80. Take-Profit 59.50, 59.90, 61.10, 61.50, 61.85, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50


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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
05/27/2019
The minutes of the ECB meeting held on April 9-10, published last Thursday, reminded market participants about the problems in the European economy. "Inflation remains well below the target level, and inflationary expectations of the market have weakened, while the predicted convergence of real and expected inflation is constantly postponed to a later date", the meeting minutes say.
The ECB leaders believe that the weakness of the Eurozone economy may persist longer than expected. They "stressed their determination to remain ready to change monetary policy instruments, if appropriate".
Last week, the EUR / USD rose due to the weakening dollar. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against a basket of 6 major currencies, lost over the past week 0.38% (or 37 points), falling to 97.47.
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However, the EUR / USD global downtrend remains in place. The EUR / USD pair continues to decline amid adverse European macro statistics. As soon as the dollar starts to grow again, the EUR / USD pair will decrease.
For more serious growth, the euro and the EUR / USD pair lack fundamental drivers.
Below the resistance levels of 1.1320 (EMA144), 1.1380 (EMA200 on the daily chart) long-term negative dynamics prevail. A further weakening of EUR / USD with targets located at support levels 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000 is likely. The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1180 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
On Monday, trading volumes are insignificant due to weekends in the UK (Spring Bank holiday) and in the USA (Memorial Day). Exchanges and banks in these countries are closed. The activity of traders will recover in the financial markets on Tuesday, and at the beginning of the European session a whole block of macro data for the Eurozone will be published, among which are indicators of consumer and business sentiment for May. A deterioration of the indicators is expected, causing a weakening of the euro and a fall in EUR / USD.
Support Levels: 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1210, 1.1225, 1.1285, 1.1320, 1.1380

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1175. Stop Loss 1.1230. Take-Profit 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1230. Stop Loss 1.1175. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1320, 1.1380


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S&P500: Current Dynamics
05/28/2019
World stock indices went down again after weak growth during the Asian session on Tuesday.
Investors are returning to the market after a long weekend and assess the events that have taken place, including the elections to the European Parliament and the trip of US President Donald Trump to Japan. Trump said that despite the recent conflict with Iran, he will not try to dislodge the government of this country.
He also said that, against the background of "substantial progress" in trade negotiations with Japan, duties on Chinese imports "can easily be extremely increased". Thus, the US-China trade conflict threatens with a new aggravation, which can negatively affect both the Chinese and the American economies.
Meanwhile, the yield of US government bonds falls again. Thus, at the beginning of the European session, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell to 2.278%, the lowest since February 2018. This indicates a growing uncertainty among investors and their avoidance of risks and purchases of high-yielding and risky assets.
At the beginning of the European session on Tuesday, futures for the S&P500 index traded near the mark of 2825.0. Probably, the American session will also begin with the fall of the indices.
We are waiting for the publication of the consumer confidence index for May on Tuesday (14:00 GMT). The index is expected to grow (130.1 vs. 129.2 in April), which will support the dollar and US stock indices. If the data is weaker than the previous values, it will put additional pressure on US stock indices.
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Nevertheless, the positive dynamics of the S&P500 persists. The index is trading above key support levels of 2810.0 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the growth from December 2018 and 2335.0 mark), 2798.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 2781.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 2845.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of purchases with the long-term goal near the annual and absolute maximum of 2959.0.
Break of the key support level of 2781.0 will revive the bearish trend. For now, this is an unlikely scenario.
Support Levels: 2810.0, 2798.0, 2781.0, 2720.0
Resistance Levels: 2845.0, 2863.0, 2890.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 2805.0. Stop Loss 2850.0. Objectives 2800.0, 2780.0, 2720.0
Buy Stop 2850.0. Stop Loss 2805.0. Objectives 2863.0, 2890.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0



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XAU/USD: Current Dynamics
05/29/2019
US President Donald Trump said last Monday that he was “not yet ready” to conclude a trade agreement with China. In his opinion, against the background of "substantial progress" in trade negotiations with Japan, duties on Chinese imports "can easily be extremely substantially raised".
Trump's statement heightened investors' concerns about the growth prospects of the global economy, since a possible escalation of the trade conflict and the introduction of duties on goods from these countries would cause damage to both the American and Chinese economies, according to economists.
In this situation, the demand for defensive assets (gold, government bonds, yen) has grown significantly in recent days.
Thus, the growth in demand for US government bonds led to a significant drop in their profitability.
The yield on 10-year US government bonds fell last week to 2.292%. On Wednesday, their yield fell to 2,229%, the lowest since February 2018.
It is possible that the Fed will still start lowering interest rates in order to support American manufacturers. And this will lead to a decrease in the dollar and the growth of gold prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
For the 6th week in a row, the XAU / USD has been trading in a narrow range near current levels and a key support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Increased uncertainty in financial markets and the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China may lead to a resumption of the bullish XAU / USD trend.
The breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1286.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of upward dynamics and growth of XAU / USD with targets located at resistance levels of 1303.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00 (maximums of February and 2019). This is the most likely scenario.
An alternative scenario implies the breakdown of the key support level of 1277.00, the lower line of the 1268.00 range, and a further decline to the lower boundary of the downward channel on the daily chart and to the support level of 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50%), which will create prerequisites for XAU / USD to return to the global bearish trend with the reduction targets at the support levels of 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1160.00 (2018 lows).
Support Levels: 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance Levels: 1286.00, 1296.00, 1303.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1275.00. Stop Loss 1288.00. Take-Profit 1268.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1288.00. Stop Loss 1275.00. Take-Profit 1296.00, 1303.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CAD: Current Dynamics and Market Expectations
05/30/2019
As expected by many market participants, at the last Wednesday meeting, the Bank of Canada kept the current monetary policy and key interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
"The recent escalation of the trade conflict has increased uncertainty regarding economic prospects", the central bank said. At the same time, the leaders of the bank believe that the slowdown in economic growth in Canada is temporary, expecting an improvement in economic activity in the country and referring to the “acceleration in the 2nd quarter”.
The recent decision of the White House to remove duties on Canadian steel and aluminum "will have a positive impact on Canadian exports and investment", because it increased the likelihood of ratifying the revised North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
On Friday (12:30 GMT), an increase in volatility in the USD / CAD trades is expected due to the publication of important macro statistics for the US and Canada. It is expected that Canadian GDP grew by 1.3% in the 2nd quarter after weak growth in the first three months of the year. Some economists believe that growth in the 2nd quarter could exceed the central bank estimate and be 2% or higher.
At the same time, the April data on consumer spending in the United States, which will also be released at the same time, may adversely affect investors' expectations regarding the US economy if the data are weak after weak data on industrial production and retail sales in the United States, published earlier.
If weak macro data starts to come in from the USA, then the probability of a decrease in the Fed's interest rate will increase. Investors already estimate the likelihood of a rate cut in 2019 at 83% versus 64% a month ago.
It is also necessary to take into account that on the last trading day of the week and month many market participants will want to take profits in long positions in the US dollar, which will cause its decline.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
Thus, next month, a corrective decline in the USD / CAD pair may start with targets at the support levels of 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair growth in the global uptrend from September 2012 and 0.9700), 1.3435 (ЕМА200 on the 4 -hourly chart), 1.3420 (EMA50 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the level 1.3420 will provoke a deeper decline to the support levels of 1.3325 (ЕМА144), 1.3275 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Above the key levels 1.3325, 1.3275, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend.
A return to the zone above the local resistance level of 1.3520 will be a signal for the resumption of long positions with targets at the resistance levels of 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).
Support Levels: 1.3465, 1.3452, 1.3435, 1.3420, 1.3325, 1.3275
Resistance Levels: 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3480. Stop Loss 1.3530. Take-Profit 1.3465, 1.3452, 1.3435, 1.3420, 1.3325, 1.3275
Buy Stop 1.3530. Stop-Loss 1.3480. Take-Profit 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com