Tifia Daily Market Analytics

GBP/USD: inflation in the UK remains high
12/12/2017
Current dynamics
Presented at the beginning of today's European session, data on consumer inflation in the UK caused a surge in volatility in the dynamics of the pound. The consumer price index (CPI) of Great Britain in November grew by 3.1% (in annual terms), exceeding the forecast by 0.1% and the target inflation rate by 1%.
Consumer prices in the UK in November grew at the fastest pace in the past six years, and signs of a weakening of price pressure are not observed.
Accelerating inflation increases the pressure on household budgets, which has a negative impact on consumer spending and the economy as a whole, focused mainly on the domestic market.
A significant share of the UK's GDP is made up of consumer spending. Due to the sharp drop in the pound after the referendum on Brexit, both imported consumer goods and raw materials imported to the UK rose in price. This, in turn, increased the producers' selling prices, and as a result, accelerated the growth of prices for consumer goods.
In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in ten years, intending to slow inflation to a target level of 2%. As stated in the Bank of England, during the next three years the rate can be increased 2 more times, by 0.25% each time.
However, the data published today indicate that high inflation rates may remain in the UK longer than economists had expected.
It is possible that the leaders of the Bank of England will again soon have to think about another increase in the interest rate in order to bring down the growing inflation.
On Thursday, there will be the next meeting of the Bank of England. It is widely expected that the rate will be maintained at the current level of 0.5%. Investors will be interested in the report on monetary policy with the results of voting on the rate and other issues, as well as comments on the state of the economy and the minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with the votes cast for and against the increase / decrease in the interest rate. The main risks for the UK after Brexit are associated with expectations of a slowdown in the country's economic growth, as well as a large current account deficit in the UK's balance of payments.
The determining factor in the dynamics of the pound is still the situation around Brexit. Now "galloping" inflation is added to this list. Thus, the intrigue about the further actions of the Bank of England remains.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3310, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3080
Resistance levels: 1.3395, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3290. Stop-Loss 1.3410. Take-Profit 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3080
Buy Stop 1.3410. Stop-Loss 1.3290. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

DJIA: on the eve of the Fed decision on rates
13/12/2017
Current dynamics
In the run-up to the publication of the Fed's decision on the rate, there is a low activity of traders.
Trading volumes are also small. Investors take into account in the prices of 100% the probability of a rate increase today at 0.25% to 1.5%.
Meanwhile, the dollar keeps positive dynamics. The index of the dollar WSJ on Tuesday rose to a maximum level for the last 3 weeks, near the mark of 87.25. This was the longest period of its continuous growth (for seven consecutive sessions) since November 2016.
The main US stock indexes also traded with a rise, continuing to develop an upward trend. Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday rose by 0.5%, to 24535 points, the S & P500 increased by 0.2%, to 2664 points. Both indexes closed above previous record highs, gaining support from shares of telecommunications and financial companies.
The dollar and stock indices also received support from Tuesday's strong US macro data. As reported by the US Department of Labor, producer prices compared to the same period of the previous year increased by 3.1%, which was the most significant growth in almost six years. It is expected that the November CPI, which will be released on Wednesday (13:30 GMT), will also show growth (by 0.4% compared to the previous month).
Nevertheless, the main focus of investors will be focused on the Fed's report published at 19:00 (GMT) with an assessment of the current economic situation, as well as with the views of members of the FOMC regarding the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy.
Previously, the leadership of the Federal Reserve planned three increases in the key rate for 2018. In addition, the Fed expects that the rate of annual inflation in the US by the end of 2019 will reach 2%. Nevertheless, if the Fed will expect to maintain low price pressure in the US economy, then the number of key rate increases planned for next year can be reduced to two.
According to the CME Group, investors estimate the likelihood of an increase in the key rate to a range of 1.75% -2% by November next year at 38%. This will require 2 rate hikes by a quarter of a percentage point next year. Many economists expect three increases in the key rate in 2018 and two increases in 2019.
If inflation data is expected to be weak and Fed officials again lower their forecasts for 2018, then the probability of three rate increases in 2018 will decrease, and this will negatively affect the dollar.
If, however, the Fed report or the views of FOMC members contain fears about the future of economic development in the US or accelerate the growth of inflation, the stock indexes may short-term, but sharply decline. A little later (19:30 GMT) the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen will speak. It is expected that volatility during the publication of the report and the speech of Janet Yellen can significantly increase.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 24265.0, 23780.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22450.0, 22100.0
Resistance levels: 24535.0, 24700.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 24400.0. Take-Profit 24700.0
Sell Stop 24400.0. Stop-Loss 24600.0. Take-Profit 24265.0, 23780.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22450.0, 22100.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CHF: the dollar is recovering after a large decline
14/12/2017
Current dynamics
In the focus of attention of traders yesterday was the meeting and the decision of the Fed on the rate, which was published at 19:00 (GMT). As it was already known, the rate was raised by a quarter of a percentage point, to the range of 1.25% -1.50%, for the third time in 2017. The Fed kept the forecast, according to which it is planned to raise rates three times in the next year.
Nevertheless, despite the improved estimates of economic growth and the potential economic incentives expected from the upcoming tax reform in the US, as well as the clearly stated position of the Fed on further tightening of monetary policy, the dollar has declined.
Today, during the Asian session, the dollar's decline continued. Today, market participants will focus on meetings of the two largest world central banks - the Bank of England and the ECB. Decisions on rates in the UK and the Eurozone will be published at 12:00, 12:45 (GMT), respectively.
At 13:30, the ECB press conference will begin. In his speech, the head of the ECB Mario Draghi will give explanations regarding the decision taken, and also, probably, answer questions about the QE program in the Eurozone. Most likely, Mario Drago confirms the propensity to continue the extra soft monetary policy of the ECB, which will negatively affect the euro.
Meanwhile, at 08:30 (GMT) the decision of the Swiss National Bank on interest rates was published.
As expected, the Swiss National Bank left the deposit rate at the level of -0.75% and left without changing the range for the 3-month LIBOR rate, between -1.25% and -0.25%. According to the NBS, the overvaluation of the franc "continues to decrease", but "the Swiss National Bank continues to consider the necessary negative interest rate and is ready to interference in the foreign exchange market, if the situation requires it".
The Swiss franc has reacted with a decrease in the NBS decision, including against the dollar, which at the beginning of the European session is attempting to recover after yesterday's decline.
Of the news for today, also waiting for macro data on the US (preliminary values for December), the publication of which is scheduled for 14:45 (GMT). PMIs will be published in the most important sectors of the US economy (in the services sector and in the manufacturing sector). The growth of indicators is expected, which should support the dollar.
If the PMI indices come out with values worse than the forecast, then the dollar's decline will resume.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.9875, 0.9810, 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445
Resistance levels: 0.9890, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000

Trading Scenarios
Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 0.9865. Take-Profit 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000
Sell Stop 0.9865. Stop-Loss 0.9910. Take-Profit 0.9810, 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: pound is vulnerable against the background of negotiations on Brexit
15/12/2017
Current dynamics
Against the backdrop of the newly emerging uncertainty around Brexit, the pound is declining during today's European session. Today, on the second day of the EU summit, its leaders ordered the UK to outline the prospects and goals of signing an agreement on mutual trade in the coming weeks.
It is expected that on Friday it will be decided to move on to the next stage of negotiations on Brexit. But so far there is no clear position on the part of the UK on this issue.
There is no consensus in the UK government about further relations with the EU and an understanding of what concessions Brexit's supporters are willing to take to maintain close trade ties with the EU. The British Prime Minister has so far vainly tried to smooth the differences in the government about Brexit.
All this negatively affects the quotations of the pound, which is falling against the dollar, even against the background of the fact that the dollar continues to trade lower against other major currencies.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, but the dollar fell, as this decision was widely expected, and leaders of Fed were cautious about the central bank's statement. The Fed raised its forecasts for US GDP growth, but did not change its inflation forecasts. "It may take more time to reach a target inflation rate of 2%", Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said at a news conference after the central bank meeting.
The Bank of England, as well as the Swiss National Bank and the ECB, left its monetary policy unchanged on Thursday, despite the high inflation in the UK, triggered by the fall of the pound after the referendum on Brexit held last summer.
Today, on the last trading day of the week, it is possible to fix profit in short positions on the dollar, which can cause its growth in the foreign exchange market.
Triggers may be the publication at 14:15 (GMT) of data on the level of industrial production and the use of production capacity in the US for November. If the data prove to be strong, then the dollar will strengthen.
Also worth paying attention to the speech at 13:15 (GMT) of the representative of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, the executive director of monetary and credit analysis and statistics, Andrew Haldane.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3395, 1.3325, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3080
Resistance levels: 1.3470, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3390. Stop-Loss 1.3480. Take-Profit 1.3325, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3080
Buy Stop 1.3480. Stop-Loss 1.3390. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

AUD/USD: on the eve of the publication of the minutes from the RBA meeting
18/12/2017
Current dynamics
After the RBA kept the interest rate at the current level of 1.5% at the beginning of the month, the Australian dollar strengthened its decline. In the accompanying statement of the RBA it was stated that "interest rates correspond to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation. Low rates support the Australian economy, and a higher rate of the Australian dollar will slow the economic recovery".
RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated that, in the opinion of the board, "it is advisable to leave monetary policy unchanged at this meeting in order to maintain a stable growth of the economy and achieve a target inflation rate over time". The AUD / USD reached its June lows near the 0.7500 mark.
Nevertheless, the AUD / USD subsequently increased, and the past week was one of the best in terms of growth since July, mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar.
The Australian dollar also received support from positive data from the Australian labor market, published on Thursday. According to the data, the unemployment rate in Australia in November was 5.4%, while the number of jobs increased by 61600 after rising by 7800 in October (the forecast was +18000 new jobs).
Tomorrow (00:30 GMT) the minutes of the December meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be published. The minutes are published two weeks after the decision on the interest rate. It will present a report on the current state of the Australian economy with details of the decision on the rates. If the RBA shows a "hawkish" attitude toward the inflation forecast in the economy, the markets view this as a higher probability of a rate hike, which is a positive factor for the AUD. The soft tone of the protocol and the propensity to continue carrying out a soft monetary policy will help to weaken the Australian currency.
At the same time, the Fed implemented a third increase in short-term interest rates in December and signaled that next year it will follow a similar course and intends to implement three rate increases of 0.25% each time.
Thus, a different focus of monetary policy in Australia and the US will further reduce AUD / USD in the medium term.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7640, 0.7630, 0.7600, 0.7545, 0.7500, 0.7460
Resistance levels: 0.7655, 0.7670, 0.7690, 0.7705, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7950

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7675. Take-Profit 0.7630, 0.7600, 0.7545, 0.7500, 0.7460
Buy Stop 0.7675. Stop-Loss 0.7620. Take-Profit 0.7690, 0.7705, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7950



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

NZD/USD: New Zealand business confidence index remains in negative territory
19/12/2017
Current dynamics
As it was reported today during the Asian session by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the confidence index in the business circles of New Zealand in December is still deep in the negative territory and amounts to -37.8% (in November the value of the index was -39.3%). The index of business confidence assesses the business climate in New Zealand and allows you to analyze the economic situation in the short term. The decrease in the value of the indicator indicates a decrease in business confidence and a decrease in business investment, which negatively affects the production and other areas of the economy of New Zealand.
The mood of producers in the agricultural sector, the leading industry in New Zealand's economy, is still deteriorating, reflecting a negative reaction to the new government. The achievements of recent years in the growth of the country's economy belong to the former leadership of the country. The general elections that took place at the end of September in New Zealand led to the defeat of the ruling at the time conservative party.
The consumer mood in New Zealand is also deteriorating. This is evidenced by the decline in the consumer sentiment indicator in New Zealand, published today at the beginning of the Asian trading session (107.4 in the fourth quarter against 112.4 in the previous quarter).
According to many economists, the RBNZ can return to consideration of the possibility of raising the rate in New Zealand not earlier than the second half of 2018.
On the other hand, the US dollar currently looks more promising for investment than the New Zealand dollar against the backdrop of expectations of a phased increase in the Fed's rate and accelerating the growth of the US economy. The Fed plans to raise the rate 3 times in 2018. Thus, the fundamental factors testify to the reduction of the NZD / USD.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the dairy price index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out at + 0.4% (against previous values of -3.4%, -3.5%, -1.0%, -2.4%) . Dairy products - one of the main exports goods of New Zealand, so the reduction in world prices for dairy products harms the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6980, 0.6935, 0.6863, 0.6800
Resistance levels: 0.7030, 0.7070, 0.7110, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270


Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6990. Stop-Loss 0.7040. Take-Profit 0.6980, 0.6935, 0.6863, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.7040. Stop-Loss 0.6990. Take-Profit 0.7070, 0.7110, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

S&P500: US Senate approves tax reduction bill
20/12/2017
Current dynamics
As it became known at the beginning of today's European session, the US Senate approved a reduction of taxes for 1.5 trillion dollars within the tax reform by 51 votes "in favor" and 48 "against".
On Tuesday, a package of laws providing for the most significant reform of the tax system since 1986 was passed by the House of Representatives with 227 votes "in favor" and 203 "against". All the Democrats present at the meeting, which was predictable, and 12 Republicans voted "against".
The reform implies a reduction in corporate taxes from 35% to 21% (previously 20% was assumed). This will increase the profits of companies, as well as increase the wages of hired workers at an accelerated rate. This, in turn, should stimulate the growth of inflation, which will contribute to more active actions of the Fed with regard to further tightening of monetary policy in the US. Most taxes will be reduced from January, and by February many workers will teach higher salaries.
The new tax law will accelerate the growth of the US economy. The dollar has not reacted to this information in any way. However, the main US stock indices, in general, positively took the news about the adoption of the law in the Senate and continue to grow during the European trading session.
Today is weak for the publication of important macro statistics. All movement around the dollar and the US stock markets will occur against the backdrop of information on the results of the promotion of tax reform in the US Senate. Conservatives said they are still deciding whether to support the bill on short-term expenses. As expected, the House of Representatives will vote on the bill on expenditures on Thursday.
Despite the doubts of some economists regarding the positive impact of this law on the growth of the US economy, nevertheless, its adoption can be considered a major victory for US President Donald Trump.
Most likely, in full measure the market reaction to this fact can be seen as early as next year. On the eve of the Catholic Christmas and the New Year celebration, the activity of traders and trading volumes are declining.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The S & P500 index remains positive dynamics, trading in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts since February 2016. On Monday, the S & P500 index updated its absolute high near the 2693.0 mark and today, after yesterday's declining, it again traded with a rise.
The upper limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart runs near the 2710.0 mark, which will become the nearest goal in case of continued growth.
Since May 2016, technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) are on the buyers’ side, and signals for the reversal of the long-term upward trend are not yet visible.
A downward correction is possible only in the short term with targets at support levels of 2648.0 (local lows), 2627.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 2610.0 (bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart).
The signal to the beginning of the downward correction may be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 2669.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
While the S & P500 is trading above the key support level of 2490.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart, the bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart, the Fibonacci level 23.6% of correction to the growth since February 2016), long-term upward dynamics persist.
In case of breakdown of the local resistance level of 2693.0 (December and year highs), the index's growth will continue.
Support levels: 2669.0, 2648.0, 2627.0, 2610.0, 2580.0, 2500.0, 2490.0
Resistance levels: 2693.0, 2700.0, 2710.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2677.0. Stop-Loss 2694.0. Objectives 2669.0, 2648.0, 2627.0, 2610.0, 2580.0, 2500.0, 2490.0
Buy Stop 2694.0 Stop-Loss 2677.0. Objectives 2700.0, 2710.0




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: pound remains vulnerable against the background of Brexit
21/12/2017
Current dynamics
The resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Teresa Mei Damian Green, as it became known on Wednesday, caused a decline in the pound. Damian Greene was Teresa May's companion, and his departure changes the balance of power in the Cabinet. Now this is just as bad for the conservatives, as the UK conducts the most important negotiations about Brexit. The British government still has no common opinion on further actions and future relations with the EU. The Prime Minister of Great Britain is trying to smooth the differences in the government over Brexit, but, at the same time, is looking for ways to maintain close trade ties with the EU.
According to official data released on Thursday, in November of this year, compared with November last year, the net borrowing of the UK public sector decreased and reached a minimum in ten years (8.7 billion pounds, 0.2 billion pounds less than in November last year) . The National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain noted that in the last months of the financial year, which ends in March 2018, tax revenues are expected to slow down.
Philip Hammond, the UK finance minister, announced more gloomy forecasts for the economy in November, and on Wednesday the IMF published a forecast that UK GDP growth in 2018 will slow down to about 1.5% amid the declining consumer and company costs due to Brexit.
Meanwhile, in the financial markets, there has been a slowdown in trading activity and a decline in trading volumes ahead of the Catholic Christmas and the celebration of the New Year.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of important macro data from the United States. At 13:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will publish a report on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits. This indicator determines the state of the labor market. The growth is expected to reach 231,000 (against 225,000 last week). The result above the expected indicates a weak labor market, which will negatively affect the US dollar.
Also at this time annual data on US GDP for the 3 quarter (updated values) and the price index (for 3 quarter), which is an indicator of inflation, will be published. Data on GDP are among the key, along with data on the labor market and inflation, for the Fed in determining its further monetary policy. A high result strengthens the USD. Forecast: GDP for the 3rd quarter increased by 3.3%. If the data prove to be better, the dollar will be strengthened.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3330, 1.3300, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3100
Resistance levels: 1.3395, 1.3470, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3340. Stop-Loss 1.3410. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3100
Buy Stop 1.3410. Stop-Loss 1.3340. Take-Profit 1.3470, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CAD: probability of rate increase in Canada increased in January
22/12/2017
Current dynamics
After yesterday, at the beginning of the US trading session were simultaneously published macro statistics on the US and Canada, the USD/CAD literally collapsed. The fall in the hour was about 100 points. Then the pair fell further, but managed to recover slightly to the end of yesterday's trading day, closing near the 1.2740 mark.
Negative factor for the US dollar was the publication of revised previously published data on US GDP for the 3rd quarter (+ 3.2% instead of + 3.3%). Despite the fact that the US GDP growth rates are record since the beginning of 2015, this did not stop the dollar from falling.
The basic index of real spending on personal consumption for November was also revised downward (1.3% in Q3, instead of 1.4%, according to the preliminary release).
The US dollar was put under pressure, despite the publication of the index of leading indicators Conference Board, which rose in November by 0.4%, to 130.9 after rising in October and September. The index of leading indicators consists of 10 components, including initial applications for unemployment benefits, production orders and changes in the S&P500 index. Economists note that the November growth of the index signals the continuation of strong economic growth in the first half of 2018.
Simultaneously with the publication of updated data on US GDP, inflation indicators were published for Canada. The total consumer price index (Total CPI) of Canada in November rose by 2.1% in annual terms (the forecast was + 2.0%). Compared to the previous month, the price increase was 0.3%.
Basic inflation in Canada also accelerated. Indicators of annual core inflation showed growth to the range of 1.5% -1.9%, while the average value of 1.7% became the maximum for more than a year.
In addition, the October report on retail sales in Canada also exceeded expectations.
At the beginning of the month, the Bank of Canada kept the interest rate at the current level of 1.0%. Prior to this, the bank twice this year raised rates - in July and September. Inflation remains below the target level of 2%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Poloz noted earlier that the target range for inflation is 1% -3%, and said that the decline in the Canadian dollar will support exports. Now, after yesterday's publication on inflation indicators and retail sales, traders estimate the likelihood of a rate hike in Canada in January at 50%.
The focus of traders today will be the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of Canada's GDP data for October. GDP is expected to grow by 0.2% compared with September. This will mean that the data generally correspond to growth in the 4th quarter at the level of 2%.
Also at the same time (13:30 GMT) we are waiting for data from the US, when important macro statistics (final values) for November will be published, including inflation indices (personal income / expenditure of Americans, personal consumption expenditure), orders for goods durable. The growth is expected in comparison with the previous month, which should positively affect the US dollar.
In this connection, once again it is worth remembering yesterday, when the dollar collapsed after the published updated data on GDP for the 3rd quarter turned out to be worse than the preliminary figures. Although in the US came out, in general, positive macro data, the fact that they were worse than the forecast, was the reason for selling the dollar.
A little later (at 15:00) will be reported on the sales of new homes in the US for November.
If today's publication of data on the US and Canada will resemble yesterday, the story of the fall of the pair USD / CAD may repeat.
In the opposite scenario, if the US data is better than forecasted values, the US dollar will partially compensate for yesterday's losses.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2620, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2740, 1.2780, 1.2835, 1.2900

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2690. Stop-Loss 1.2750. Take-Profit 1.2620, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Buy Stop 1.2750. Stop-Loss 1.2690. Take-Profit 1.2780, 1.2835, 1.2900




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Nikkey225: The Bank of Japan intends to continue a large-scale program of mitigation
26/12/2017
Current dynamics
As Haruhiko Kuroda said during today's press conference, the Japanese central bank will continue the large-scale mitigation program, as inflation is still far from the target level of 2%.
This is, almost traditional in recent months, the statement of the head of the Bank of Japan was addressed primarily to those investors who expect that next year the Bank of Japan may begin to wind down its extra soft monetary policy.
If earlier Kuroda spoke about "readiness for the most decisive measures to support the Japanese economy", which implies continuation or expansion of extra soft monetary policy in Japan, today he said that "we (the leadership of the Bank of Japan) will further support the cycle of revenue growth , supporting a moderate increase in wages and prices."
According to official data released today, in November, the unemployment rate in Japan fell to 2.7%. This means that the conditions on the labor market are most favorable for the growth of wages for last 24 years.
The CPI National Consumer Price Index for November, published by the Bureau of Statistics of Japan, came out today with an increase of 0.6% (in annual terms), which is better than the forecast of + 0.3% and + 0.2% in October. CPI is the most significant inflationary barometer of changes in Japan's consumer trends. The growth of the index positively affects the yen's quotations and the stock index.
The Bank of Japan and the authorities of the country are trying to overcome a long period of deflation and stagnation.
Nevertheless, the positive Japanese macro statistics and Kuroda's statement were rather restrainedly perceived on the Japanese stock market.
The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds rose to 0.045% from 0.035%.
After the Japanese main stock index Nikkey225 jumped by about 20% in the period from September to November, the last few weeks it is just below 23000.00, and today, at the end of the Asian trading session, it was trading near 22900.00.
Today, trading volumes are low because the European stock exchanges, as well as the markets of Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong are closed today due to the celebration of Boxing Day. However, the US exchanges are working today. Therefore, volatility with the opening of US stock exchanges will increase.
Nevertheless, the full activity of trade will be restored in the next year. On the eve of the New Year celebration, the activity of traders and trading volumes will remain low.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
After in November the Nikkey225 index reached the annual maximum near the mark of 23430.00, the last weeks the index is traded in the range, the upper limit of which passes near the resistance level of 23000.00. At the same time, the Nikkey225 index keeps positive dynamics, trading in the upward channel on the weekly chart since September 2017.
The last days trading activity is low due to the upcoming New Year holidays.
In case of fastening above the resistance level of 23000.00, growth will resume.
The scenario for the decline will be related to the breakdown of the short-term support level of 22550.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). The goal of the decline is the support level of 22000.00 (November, December low and the low limit of the range formed between the levels of 23000.00 and 22000.00).
The long-term positive dynamics of the index remains in force, as long as the index trades above the support level of 20900.00 (zone of ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the daily chart and highs of 2015).
Support levels: 22840.00, 22550.00, 22000.00, 20900.00
Resistance levels: 23000.00, 23450.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 22700.00. Stop-Loss 23100.00. Objectives 22550.00, 22000.00, 21000.00
Buy Stop 23100.00. Stop-Loss 22700.00. Objectives 23450.00, 24000.00



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