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This is a discussion on Tifia Daily Market Analytics within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; EUR/USD: the euro is prone to decline 18/10/2017 Current dynamics Speaking today at the opening of the conference dedicated to ...

      
   
  1. #151
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    EUR/USD: the euro is prone to decline
    18/10/2017
    Current dynamics

    Speaking today at the opening of the conference dedicated to structural reforms held at the ECB headquarters, the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, did not concern the monetary policy decisions expected from the ECB on October 26.
    Nevertheless, the head of the ECB said that the research "has not revealed convincing evidence that high interest rates promote more active reform. The reverse statement seems more plausible: lower rates usually contribute to reforms, since they create more favorable macroeconomic conditions".
    Thus, Draghi once again recalled the propensity to continue the extra soft monetary policy of the ECB, whose meeting will be held on October 26.
    All the attention of investors will now be focused on the speeches of the bank's leaders before this date. To date, two more presentations by ECB representatives are planned: Peter Prat (at 11:45 GMT) and Benoit Car (at 14:15).
    Also it is worth paying attention to the speech of representatives of the Fed Robert Kaplan and William Daly (12:00 GMT). As the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the member of the FOMC with the right to vote Robert Kaplan stated yesterday, "Given the good state of the US economy, I expect progress (in relation to inflation), which in turn will allow us to continue the gradual abandonment of stimulus measures".
    Last Sunday, the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, also spoke in the same vein, saying that "the observed strength of the economy justifies a gradual increase" in short-term interest rates in the US.
    Published yesterday, data on industrial production in the US for September, confirmed the statements of Kaplan and Yellen. Industrial production grew by 0.3% compared to the previous month and by 1.6% compared to the same period of the previous year, despite strong hurricanes that last month. The data indicated a favorable situation in the US industry and strengthened arguments in favor of higher interest rates by the US Federal Reserve at the end of this year.
    At the same time, the euro remains under pressure amid an uncertain situation with the independence of Catalonia.
    The head of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, did not clarify the question of his declared independence of Catalonia, and now, from October 19, Madrid threatens to end the autonomy of this region of Spain. Any escalation of tension around the situation in Catalonia will negatively affect the euro.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    With the annual peaks in September close to 1.2090, the EUR/USD is steadily declining to the lower border of the upward channel on the weekly chart and support level 1.1630 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly, monthly charts were deployed to short positions.
    At the beginning of the European session, the EUR/USD is trading below the important level of 1.1780 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of the global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900), and the trend towards further decline remains.
    The signal for resumption of growth will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level 1.1810 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart) and the local resistance level 1.1875. In this case, the EUR/USD growth will resume within the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is near the resistance level 1.2340 (EMA144 on the monthly chart). The growth targets are level 1.2090 (September highs), 1.2180 (Fibonacci level 50%), 1.2340.
    Support levels: 1.1700, 1.1630, 1.1400, 1.1285
    Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1810, 1.1875, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.1720. Stop-Loss 1.1785. Take-Profit 1.1700, 1.1670, 1.1630, 1.1600, 1.1400
    Buy Stop 1.1785. Stop-Loss 1.1720. Take-Profit 1.1810, 1.1875, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  2. #152
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    GBP/USD: GBP down on retail sales data
    19/10/2017
    Current dynamics

    According to official data released on Thursday, in September, as compared to August, retail sales decreased by 0.8% (the forecast was -0.1% and weak growth in August +0.9%).
    In the third quarter, compared to the same period last year, retail sales grew by only 1.2%, and this was the weakest annual growth rate in four years.
    The decline in retail sales indicates a decline in the standard of living of the British after voting for an exit from the EU, and this is a worrying signal for a UK-dominated economy that is oriented primarily to the domestic market.
    The drop in retail sales occurs against the backdrop of accelerated inflation after last year's referendum on withdrawal from the EU, when the pound fell sharply. Growing inflation drags not only producer prices, but also import and consumer prices, which grew by 3% in September (in annual terms), and this growth rate was the fastest in five and a half years.
    The growth of consumer prices for eight months in a row exceeds the target level set by the Bank of England at 2%. This is a very strong argument in favor of an early increase in the interest rate. But even though the referendum on Brexit sharply increased in Great Britain last summer, the Bank of England will be very cautious and cautious about tightening monetary policy.
    As the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney said on Tuesday, the unsuccessful negotiations on Brexit can carry with them significant economic risks, not only for the UK, but also for the Eurozone.
    Many market participants expect that in November the Bank of England will still raise the key interest rate to 0.5% from the current level of 0.25%, and this will be the first rate increase for the decade. Nevertheless, further increases in rates may become difficult on the backdrop of the difficulties of the growth of the British economy due to Brexit.
    Thus, the fundamental factors say in favor of weakening the GBP/USD. The growth will be possible against the backdrop of the weakening of the dollar, especially if it again escalates, for example, the geopolitical confrontation on the Korean peninsula, or there will be unexpected news about the change in the leadership of the Fed.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support and resistance levels
    As early as Tuesday, the GBP/USD broke through the important support levels of 1.3185 (EMA50 on the daily chart), 1.3210 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3225 (EMA200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts), and today the decline continues.
    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts were deployed to short positions.
    Nevertheless, we can say that the GBP/USD maintains a positive trend, which is supported by positive macro data and the expectation of an early rate hike in the UK.
    Since the beginning of the year, GBP / USD continues to trade in the upward channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is near resistance level 1.3760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).
    In case of returning to the zone above the resistance level 1.3225 and breaking through the local resistance level 1.3335, it is possible to consider long positions with targets at resistance levels 1.3440 (local highs and the middle of the upward channel on the daily chart), 1.3630 (annual highs), 1.3760.
    For now, short positions with targets near the level of 1.3000 (EMA144, EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the weekly chart) are preferred.
    The breakdown of the key support level of 1.3000 will increase the risk of GBP / USD return to the global downtrend that began in July 2014.
    Support levels: 1.3120, 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2975
    Resistance levels: 1.3185, 1.3210, 1.3225, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.3120. Stop-Loss 1.3190. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2975
    Buy Stop 1.3190. Stop-Loss 1.3120. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3225, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  3. #153
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    USD/JPY: the Nikkei index breaks records, and the yen remains under pressure
    20/10/2017
    Current dynamics

    After a 6-week continuous growth, the Japanese stock index Nikkei reached several multi-year highs, bargaining at the end of today's Asian session near the mark of 21500.00. At the same time, amid the growth of the Japanese stock market, the yen remains under pressure and is down against the dollar, since early September.
    This Sunday in Japan, early elections will be held, and it is expected that the ruling coalition of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will remain in power. Abe supports soft monetary policy, which contributes to the growth of the stock market and the reduction of the yen.
    Head of the Central Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda again promised to continue the implementation of extra soft monetary policy and expressed confidence in the strength of the country's economy. In his opinion, the current policy corresponds to short-term and long-term target levels of the Bank of Japan. "The recent improvement in the situation was caused by the balanced growth of domestic and external demand, and I believe in significant economic growth stability," Kuroda said. At present, the Bank of Japan expects that inflation will reach 2% by March 2020, but this forecast can be revised at the end of October, when the next meeting of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy (October 31) will take place.
    At a meeting last month, the Bank of Japan reiterated its commitment to buy government bonds in the amount of 80 trillion yen per year. The head of the Bank of Japan at a subsequent press conference promised that "we will patiently adhere to the policy of powerful mitigation in order to achieve inflation of 2%" and "take additional mitigation measures, if necessary".
    At the same time, the dollar is growing again in the foreign exchange market. As it became known, the US Senate approved the draft budget 51 votes to 49, which is one of the conditions for unlocking the procedure that the Republicans plan to use to make changes in the taxation system with the help of the votes of only the Republican Party.
    "Adoption of the budget is critical for tax reform that will strengthen our economy after several years of stagnation under the previous administration", said Mitch McConnell, leader of the Republican majority in the Senate.
    The given news stimulated the growth of the dollar. The index of the dollar WSJ rose from the opening of today's trading day at 0.4% and reached a maximum for the month near the 87.00 mark. The yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to 2,360% from the level of 2,323%, recorded on Thursday night in New York.
    After yesterday's decline, the pair USD / JPY is rising again today. Tensions between the US and North Korea declined, and investors again returned to buying US assets.
    After the release of good economic indicators for the United States, investors say that the interest rates are now more likely to be raised again in December, and the economic growth in the US is stable, investors say in favor of raising the interest rate and receiving encouraging news from the White House.
    According to the CME Group, the probability of a rate hike in December is taken into account by investors at 93%.
    In general, the fundamental factors say (at the moment) in favor of further growth in the USD/JPY.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    In the course of today's European session, the USD/JPY is trying to develop an upward trend and is making an attempt to break through the resistance level 113.10 (the top line of the descending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts, as well as the Fibonacci 50% correction to the pair growth since August last year and level 99.90).
    While USD / JPY is trading above the key support level of 111.25 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart), its positive dynamics persists. In case of breakdown of the resistance level 113.10, the target of the growth will be level 114.40 (the upper limit of the range between the levels 108.10 and 114.40).
    The different focus of the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan is a powerful fundamental factor in favor of further growth in the USD / JPY.
    The alternative scenario implies a return of USD / JPY to the level of 111.25 and a resumption of decline in the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which runs near the level of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%). The nearest targets will be support levels of 111.00, 110.15 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
    The signal for opening short positions will be the break of the short-term support level 111.90 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
    Support levels: 112.15, 111.90, 111.25, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
    Resistance levels: 113.10, 113.50, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

    Trading Scenarios

    Buy Stop 113.50. Stop Loss 112.90. Take-Profit 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
    Sell Stop 112.90. Stop Loss 113.50. Take-Profit 112.15, 111.90, 111.25, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  4. #154
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    XAU/USD: gold continues to fall in price against the background of dollar strengthening
    23/10/2017
    Current dynamics

    The dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market, and gold - to decline in price amid news and talk about the appointment of President Donald Trump the new chairman of the Fed.
    Among the candidates for this post is Stanford University economist John Taylor, who is more inclined to tighten monetary policy than current chairman Janet Yellen. Yes and Janet Yellen herself can count on the extension of her powers after the end of January when 4-year term of her stay at the head of the Fed expires.
    If Trump suggests Janet Yellen to remain in office for a second term, it will also become a positive factor for the dollar, as Yellen consistently advocates a phased tightening of monetary policy.
    Many economists believe that if the new FRS chairman is appointed, monetary policy in the US will become even more rigid. According to CME Group, the probability of a rate hike in December is taken into account by investors in more than 90%.
    The index of the dollar WSJ recently added 0.22% to 87.19, while over the past week it grew by 0.77%. The ICE dollar index climbed 0.6%, to a maximum since October 6, 93.70.
    The growth of the dollar is also promoted by the draft budget approved last Friday in the US Congress. "Adoption of the budget is critical for tax reform that will strengthen our economy after several years of stagnation under the previous administration," said Mitch McConnell, leader of the Republican majority in the Senate.
    Waiting for tax cuts in the new economic policy of the administration of the US President Donald Trump contributes to the growth of the dollar and US stock indices, and, accordingly, the fall in gold prices.
    On Friday, December gold futures on COMEX closed with a decrease of 0.7%, at 1280.50 dollars per troy ounce. The prices for gold fell on the results of five of the last six weeks.
    In the future, investors will also explore new US economic data. Low inflation can change the approach of the central bank in relation to interest rates and again support the price of gold. Traders also monitor the development of geopolitical tensions, which can support gold, popular as a safe haven in periods of uncertainty. With the growth of borrowing costs, gold competes worse with more profitable assets, for example, treasury bonds, and is declining, but the demand for gold is growing with the aggravation of geopolitical tensions. Usually, against the backdrop of growing geopolitical or financial uncertainty, the price of gold, as an asset-shelter, is growing.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    Since the opening of today, the pair XAU / USD is declining, and at the beginning of the European session is trading near the support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016).
    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
    The pair XAU / USD broke short-term support levels of 1290.00 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 1285.00 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 1-hour chart) and develops the descending dynamics, decreasing to the support levels of 1272.00 (EMA144 and the lower border of the ascending channel on the day graph), 1265.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1260.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). The breakdown of the support level of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50%) raises the risk of the pair XAU / USD returning to the downtrend.
    The signal for the resumption of growth of XAU / USD will be a breakdown of the resistance level of 1290.00. Breakdown of local resistance levels at 1305.00, 1312.00 will confirm the return of the bullish trend within the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, the upper limit of which runs near the resistance level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100%).
    Support levels: 1272.00, 1265.00, 1260.00, 1248.00
    Resistance levels: 1285.00, 1290.00, 1305.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1282.00. Take-Profit 1272.00, 1265.00, 1260.00, 1248.00
    Buy Stop 1292.00. Stop-Loss 1282.00. Take-Profit 1305.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  5. #155
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    USD/JPY: amid the victory of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party
    24/10/2017
    Current dynamics

    After the results of the parliamentary elections in Japan became known, in which Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party won a convincing victory, the Japanese Nikkei stock index rose to new highs. This year, the Nikkei index grew by 13%, with almost the growth coming in the period after the beginning of September. The Nikkei Stock Average rose to 21810.00 amid the strengthening of shares of export-oriented companies, ending on a positive 16th consecutive day and setting a record for the duration of continuous growth (6 consecutive weeks).
    The renewed growth of the Japanese economy and the growth of stock markets helped the ruling coalition to get more than two-thirds of the seats in the lower house of parliament. Abe's victory inspired investors who are investing in the growth of the Japanese stock market, lagging behind other world stock markets. Abe supports soft monetary policy, which will promote the growth of the stock market and the reduction of the yen.
    During his reign, Abe will have to decide, in particular, the issue of appointing a new manager of the Bank of Japan. In any case, economists believe that even if Abe replaces the current governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who turns 73 on Wednesday, the central bank will basically maintain an extremely soft monetary policy, including asset purchases of 6 trillion yen in year.
    The next meeting of the Bank of Japan, dedicated to monetary policy, will be held on October 31. Last month, the Bank of Japan reiterated its commitment to buy government bonds in the amount of 80 trillion yen a year, and the head of the Bank of Japan at a subsequent press conference promised that "we will patiently adhere to the policy of powerful easing in order to achieve inflation of 2%" and "will take additional mitigation measures, if necessary".
    At the same time, the dollar continues to grow in the foreign exchange market after it became known about the decision of the US Senate, which approved the draft budget from the presidential administration. The index of the ICE dollar rose to its highs from October 6, above the level of 93.70. Expectations of continued soft monetary policy in Japan and tightening of monetary policy in the US will contribute to the growth of the pair USD / JPY in the medium term.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    On Monday, trading on the pair USD / JPY opened with a gap up. Then the pair adjusted to the marks near the closing level of Friday. Today, with the opening of the trading day, the pair USD / JPY is growing again and is trading at the beginning of the European session near the level of 113.80, the opening price of trading on Monday. A strong positive momentum continues to push the pair USD / JPY up to the upper boundary of the range between the levels of 108.10 and 114.40.
    While USD / JPY is trading above the key support level of 111.25 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart), its positive dynamics persists.
    The alternative scenario implies a return of USD / JPY to the level of 113.10 (the top line of the descending channel on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of the 50% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and the level of 99.90) and the resumption of the decline in the downward channel on the weekly chart. The lower boundary of this channel passes near the level of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%). The immediate targets will be support levels of 111.25, 111.00, 110.15 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
    The breakthrough of the short-term support level 112.95 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for opening of short positions.
    Support levels: 113.50, 113.10, 112.95, 112.00, 111.25, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
    Resistance levels: 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

    Trading Scenarios

    Buy Stop 113.85. Stop Loss 113.20. Take-Profit 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
    Sell Stop 112.90. Stop Loss 113.40. Take-Profit 112.00, 111.25, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  6. #156
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    Brent: oil prices rise
    25/10/2017
    Current dynamics

    As reported on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API), oil reserves in the US last week rose by 0.5 million barrels. At the same time, stocks of gasoline and distillates dropped quite significantly: -5.8 million barrels and -4.9 million barrels, respectively.
    Oil prices positively received this information after the prices rose during yesterday's trading day. The price for Brent crude oil rose by 1.7% on Tuesday to 58.27, adding about $ 1 per barrel. Brent crude futures for ICE increased by 1.7%, to 58.33 dollars per barrel.
    On Tuesday, the Saudi Arabian Oil Minister confirmed his intention to do everything necessary to reduce the world's oil reserves to an average of 5-year level.
    Last year, OPEC and a number of countries outside the cartel agreed on a total reduction in production of 1.8 million barrels per day. Now it is expected that at the November meeting the participants in the OPEC deal, which currently operates until the end of the first quarter of 2018, will again extend it. Oil prices also are supported by the dynamics of demand. Oil imports to India last month rose to a new high of 4.6 million barrels a day. China imported 37 million tons of oil in September (9% more than in August and 12% more in annual terms).
    Analysts of the oil market forecast an even higher import of oil to Asian countries, in particular, to China and India.
    Today, investors will wait for a weekly report on US reserves and oil production from the US Energy Ministry, which will be published at 14:30 (GMT). It is expected that oil and oil products stocks decreased by 2.578 million barrels last week, after a decrease of 5.731 million barrels the week before last. If the data is confirmed, the positive dynamics of oil prices will continue.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    At the beginning of today's trading session, Brent crude is trading in a narrow range near the level of $ 58.10 per barrel.
    The price is rising in the ascending channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 60.00. In the event of a breakdown of the nearest resistance level of 58.80 (September highs), the target of further growth will be the resistance level of 61.50 (EMA144 on the monthly chart).
    While the price is above the key support level of 54.70 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), long positions remain relevant.
    The signal for the development of an alternative scenario to decline will be a breakdown of the support level of 57.00 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
    If the price returns to 54.70, the risks of resuming the downtrend increase with targets at 52.20 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (the Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00), 50.00 (the lows of August), 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (the lows of the year), 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
    Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers side.
    Long positions are preferred.
    Support levels: 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
    Resistance levels: 58.80, 60.00, 61.50

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 57.75. Stop-Loss 58.30. Take-Profit 57.00, 56.20, 55.70, 55.30, 54.70, 53.75, 52.20, 50.70
    Buy Stop 58.30. Stop-Loss 57.75. Take-Profit 58.80, 59.00, 60.00, 61.50



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  7. #157
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    EuroStoxx50: on the eve of the decision of the ECB
    26/10/2017
    Current dynamics

    The focus of traders today is the ECB's decision on rates, as well as a follow-up press conference at which ECB leaders are expected to clarify the situation with the prospect of the QE program. It is expected that the ECB will keep the interest rate at zero level, and the deposit rate will leave negative, at the level of -0.4%.
    Also, investors believe that the ECB will announce a reduction in the monthly purchases of European government bonds, supposedly from 60 billion euros to 30 billion euros, and this will be the second reduction this year.
    The ECB leadership has stated more than once that stimulation can be extended, for example, for nine months, as inflation in the euro area remains weak, below the target level of just under 2.0%.
    Even if the ECB declares a reduction in purchases, then, given that rates remain at the same level, in general, the monetary policy of the central bank will remain soft.
    Nevertheless, the ECB can and disappoint today buyers, both the euro and European stock assets, unless it announces when it plans to complete the asset purchase program, saying that it still does not exclude any options.
    On the other hand, the Eurozone economy is strong enough to cope with a gradual change in policy. The economy of the Eurozone can show the strongest annual growth since 2007, and the indicators of consumer sentiment reached the maximum marks for a decade.
    Although inflation remains well below the ECB's target, the supply managers' indexes released this week showed that the employment growth rate in the Eurozone peaked in ten years. This allows us to hope that wage growth will support still weak inflation.
    Thus, buying risky assets of the European stock market still looks more promising than putting the euro on further growth.
    The decision on the interest rate will be published at 11:45 (GMT), the press conference of the ECB will start at 12:30 (GMT).
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    After active growth in September, the current month, the EuroStoxx50 index is trading in the range near the level of 3600.0.
    The positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index persists while it trades above support levels of 3455.0 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart), 3440.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the downward correction to the wave of growth from July 2016 and from the level of 2675.0 and the bottom line of the upward trend channel on the weekly chart).
    The signal to decline may be a breakdown of the support level of 3555.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart).
    The breakdown of the local resistance level of 3625.0 (October highs) will create prerequisites for further growth with targets at the annual maximum levels near the 3680.0, 3820.0 (absolute highs of 2015 and the upper line of the rising channel on the weekly chart).
    The breakdown of support levels 3455.0, 3440.0 will be a turning point in the development of the bullish trend, which began in June 2016. The immediate goal of further decline is the support level of 3295.0 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
    Support levels: 3590.0, 3555.0, 3455.0, 3440.0, 3415.0, 3400.0
    Resistance levels: 3625.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 3570.0. Stop-Loss 3630.0. Take-Profit 3555.0, 3455.0, 3440.0, 3415.0, 3400.0
    Buy Stop 3630.0. Stop-Loss 3570.0. Take-Profit 3680.0, 3700.0, 3820.0



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  8. #158
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    GBP/USD: pound drops against dollar after other currencies
    27/10/2017
    Current dynamics

    On Wednesday, when a strong report on UK GDP for the third quarter was presented, the pound rose sharply in the foreign exchange market. Preliminary GDP of the UK, according to the data, in the third quarter increased by 0.4% (+ 1.5% in annual terms). The forecast was + 0.3% and + 1.5%, respectively. The data presented strengthened expectations of an increase in interest rates of the Bank of England at a meeting on November 2. The pair GBP/USD rose on Wednesday by 1% or 130 points, rising to 1.3260.
    And yet, yesterday and today, the pound is down against the dollar after the other currencies, the rivals of the dollar. Despite the fact that the probability of an increase in the Bank of England's rate in November has grown, investors are less likely to believe that an increase in the Bank of England's key rate in November will lead to a series of increases. Today, the British pound / US dollar fell to its lowest level in 2.5 weeks at 1.3080, completely cutting off the growth of the pair, fixed on Wednesday.
    According to many economists, the increase in November will be the only change in rates in 2017 and 2018. And this, against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar, makes it advisable to sell GBP / USD in the medium term.
    The US dollar on Thursday reached its highest level for more than three months against the background of the fall of the euro and the pair EUR / USD. The index of the dollar WSJ, which displays the value of the US currency against a basket of 16 currencies, increased by 0.4%, to 87.53, the highest level since July 13.
    At 12:30 (GMT) today a preliminary estimate of US GDP for the third quarter will be published.
    In the previous quarter, GDP growth was +3.1%. The forecast for the 3rd quarter of this year is + 2.7%. This will be a fairly strong indicator, given the consequences of hurricanes sweeping over the country's south. GDP data will be key to the direction of the dollar's development ahead of the Fed meeting, which will be held next week and will end with the publication on November 1 of the interest rate decision.
    Also, together with the GDP data, the inflationary price index and the price index for personal consumption expenditure will also be published, also for the third quarter. If the data prove to be worse than the forecast, the dollar may react with a decrease. Then, at the end of the last full trading week of the month, profit can be fixed in long positions on the dollar, which will cause its decline, including in the pair GBP/USD. If the data coincides with the forecast or will be stronger, the dollar will continue to grow.
    Given the Fed's predilection for further tightening of monetary policy, the success of the US administration in implementing the new economic policy in the US (on Thursday the US Congress approved the draft budget, which would allow changes to the tax code), as well as strong macroeconomic indicators coming from the US, is likely further growth of the dollar in the medium term.
    Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2975
    Resistance levels: 1.3150, 1.3185, 1.3210, 1.3260, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  9. #159
    Senior Member TifiaFX's Avatar
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    DJIA: stock indexes continue to grow
    30/10/2017
    Current dynamics

    This month, the main US stock indexes are closing in a positive territory, with a decent increase. On Friday, the indices reached new highs after the US received strong macro data. According to the Ministry of Trade, the gross domestic product, the most comprehensive indicator of all goods and services produced in the US, grew by 3% in the third quarter (the forecast was +2.5%). The growth of GDP was not hampered by hurricanes, because of which a number of large enterprises were closed.
    Last week, many US companies reported good financial results. Outstanding results of activity of many large corporations contributed to the growth of the stock market. So, the Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by 0.1% to 23434.19 points. Strong growth in the technological sector helped Nasdaq Composite to increase by 2.2% to 6701.26 points, and the S & P500 - by 0.8% to 2581.07 points. Nasdaq has already reached the 61st new maximum this year, the last time such a number of record marks was recorded in 1999.
    American stock indexes continued to grow actively after earlier this month the US Senate and Congress approved a draft budget submitted by the presidential administration. Now Republicans will be able to carry out their plan for reforming the tax code, suggesting significantly lowering taxes for companies and many individuals, without the support of democrats. The proposed measures will support economic growth.
    In general, the positive dynamics of US stock indices, including the DJIA index, remains. About the reversal of the bullish trend is not yet talking. Probably further growth, not excluding descending, but short-term corrections.
    Data on retail sales, industrial production, orders for durable goods and company sentiment, as well as strong GDP, coupled with positive reports from companies and the success of the presidential administration in implementing economic reforms in the US contribute to maintaining the positive dynamics of the stock market.
    From the news for today, we are waiting for publication at 12:30 (GMT) of inflation indicators (spending on personal consumption, personal income / spending of Americans) for September, which will cause the growth of volatility in financial markets.
    On Wednesday, the meeting of the Committee on Federal Open Market Operations will take place. The decision on the interest rate will be published at 18:00 (GMT). It is expected that the rate will remain at the same level of 1.25%. Apparently, the Fed leaders will again note the rapid recovery of economic data after the hurricanes, which will also positively affect the stock indices.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Trading Scenarios
    Buy Stop 23490.0. Stop-Loss 23300.0. Take-Profit 23600.0, 23700.0, 24000.0
    Sell Stop 23300.0. Stop-Loss 23490.0. Take-Profit 23285.0, 22820.0, 22670.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21610.0, 21460.0




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  10. #160
    Senior Member TifiaFX's Avatar
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    USD/JPY: The Bank of Japan did not change its monetary policy
    31/10/2017


    Today, the Bank of Japan has decided not to change the current monetary policy and to maintain the key rate on deposits - at the level of -0.1%. The yen reacted quite restrainedly to this decision, which was, in general, the expected investors. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said at a press conference that the bank will adhere to its plan of buying shares. "At the moment I do not think that it is necessary to change anything in the policy of managing the yield curve", Kuroda said.
    For the second month in a row, the USD/JPY is developing an upward trend. A strong positive momentum continues to push the USD/JPY up to the upper boundary of the range between the levels of 108.10 and 114.40.
    Today, the pair USD / JPY is trading in the upward short-term channel on the 4-hour chart, near the support level of 113.10 (the top line of the descending channel on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of the 50% correction to the pair growth since August last year and the level of 99.90).
    The signal to open short positions will be the break of the short-term support level of 112.45 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart). The goal of corrective decline is the key support level of 111.45 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart).
    Nevertheless, while the USD/JPY is trading above the level of 111.45, its positive medium-term dynamics remains. In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 114.40 (October highs and the upper line of the range formed between the levels 114.40, 108.10), the target of the growth will be the level of resistance 116.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 113.10, 112.45, 112.00, 111.45, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
    Resistance levels: 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

    Trading Scenarios

    Buy in the market. Stop Loss 112.90. Take-Profit 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
    Sell Stop 112.90. Stop Loss 113.40. Take-Profit 112.45, 112.00, 111.45, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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