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This is a discussion on Tifia Daily Market Analytics within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; GBP/USD: inflation "eats" the wages of Britons 14/06/2017 Overview and dynamics Despite the fact that the Fed is expected to ...

      
   
  1. #61
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    GBP/USD: inflation "eats" the wages of Britons
    14/06/2017

    Overview and dynamics

    Despite the fact that the Fed is expected to raise the key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point following its two-day meeting, which will end today, the dollar remains under pressure in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ, which tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, decreased by 0.2%, to 88.31. The probability of such a decision on the part of the Fed is estimated by investors at 100%.
    Nevertheless, market participants are waiting for a press conference (will begin at 18:30 GMT) and comments of the Fed to assess further plans for interest rates and reducing the balance.
    The rate increase today at 0.25% is already taken into account in prices. And if the Fed signals about the suspension of tightening monetary policy, the US dollar will further fall. Slowing inflation in the US could alert the Fed.
    So, today at 12:30 (GMT) a block of the most important macro data from the USA is published, including inflation indices (retail sales and consumer price index for May). Nearly zero growth in May is expected (+ 0.1% and + 0.0%, respectively), which again indicates a slowdown or a very weak inflation rate in the US.
    If the Fed signals about the possibility of raising the rate one or two more times this year, the dollar will rise sharply in the foreign exchange market. The likelihood of such a scenario is also possible. As the Fed officials said more recently, the central bank can go on raising rates, despite a weak inflation rate, in order to avoid overheating the economy and the growth of soap bubbles in the US stock market.
    As for the pound, yesterday, along with the Canadian dollar, it was among the leaders of growth against the US dollar. The pound rose on strong inflation data from the European session yesterday (the consumer price index in the UK rose to 2.9% in May in annual terms (the forecast was + 2.7%)), the highest level in nearly four years.
    Today, the pair GBP / USD demonstrates the reverse dynamics and declines at the beginning of the European session. According to the data published on Wednesday, the level of wages adjusted for inflation fell for the second consecutive month compared to the same period last year. Real wages declined by 0.6% compared to the same period last year. The incomes of the country's population are declining because of inflation. This could negatively affect the growth of the British economy, which is highly dependent on domestic consumption. Consumer spending is an important component of UK GDP growth.
    On Thursday, the Bank of England (11:00 GMT) decides on the interest rate. It is likely that the interest rate will remain at the same level of 0.25%. Also at this time are published: a report on the monetary policy with the results of voting on the rate and other issues, as well as with comments on the state of the economy; the protocol of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) with the distribution of votes for and against the increase / decrease in the interest rate. The Bank of England will be very cautious about the issue of raising the interest rate, despite the high level of inflation in the country.
    The intrigue about the further actions of the Bank of England remains. In the period of publication of the decision of the bank and during its subsequent press conference, the volatility of the pound trade is expected, which is already characterized by its high intraday volatility.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


    Technical analysis
    Despite support from strong inflation data, the pair GBP / USD failed to break through resistance level 1.2800 (EMA200 on 1-hour and daily charts), and after the publication of data on the labor market in the UK in the European session again declining.
    The pound continues to remain under pressure amid uncertainty around Brexit.
    At the moment, the pair GBP / USD is trading at support level 1.2715 (EMA144 on the daily chart). In case of a breakdown of the support level of 1.2640 (June lows and the lower limit of the uplink on the daily chart), the GBP / USD pair will accelerate.
    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
    Negative dynamics prevails. The pair GBP / USD decline will continue with the nearest targets near the levels 1.2550, 1.2340, between which the lower limit of the ascending channel passes on the weekly chart.
    The alternative scenario implies the return of the GBP / USD pair above the level of 1.2825 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) with the prospect of further growth within the upward channel on the daily chart with targets of 1.3050 (annual highs), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% GBP / USD in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200 and the upper limit of the rising channel on the daily chart).
    Support levels: 1.2715, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110
    Resistance levels: 1.2800, 1.2825, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.2690. Stop-Loss 1.2770. Take-Profit 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110
    Buy Stop 1.2770. Stop-Loss 1.2690. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

  2. #62
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    AUD/USD: after the Fed meeting
    15/06/2017
    Current dynamics

    As a result of a two-day meeting, the Fed raised yesterday the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. The decision was expected, and the dollar reacted with sufficient restraint to it. The dollar began to strengthen later, when at 18:30 (GMT) the FRS press conference began, from which it became known that the Fed is planning another increase towards the end of the year, as well as cutting its budget, which is about 4.5 trillion US dollars. The portfolio of FRS assets rose to the current level from 800 billion dollars before the crisis, which was due to a number of bond purchase programs aimed at reducing long-term interest rates.
    According to some economists' estimates, the reduction of assets by $ 675 billion by 2019 will be equivalent to raising the key short-term interest rate of the Federal Reserve by a quarter of a percentage point. The process of reducing the balance of the Fed will also lead to an increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which will be accompanied by the strengthening of the dollar.
    Thus, the Fed once again confirmed its intention to tighten monetary policy in the US.
    As is known, at the beginning of the month, the RB of Australia left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. As it was said in the accompanying statement, "the strengthening of the Australian dollar will complicate the adjustment of the economy", and "the preservation of rates unchanged corresponds to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation". As noted in the RBA, the conditions for doing business in the country have improved; however, there are other risks for the country's economy, which restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy. Slow growth rates of wages and incomes of the population of Australia, increased unemployment and low, according to the RBA, the growth rate of the country's GDP will restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy.
    The volatility of commodity prices, in particular iron ore, one of Australia's major export commodities, and their propensity to decline against the expected strengthening of the US dollar, also represents one of the significant risks to the Australian economy, which still retains the raw material features in many respects.
    The Australian dollar has grown today after the release of data showing a sharp increase in employment and a drop in the unemployment rate. Thus, the unemployment rate in May fell to 5.5% from 5.7% in April. The number of employees increased by 42,000 (with a growth by forecast of 10,000). The Australian labor market data was optimistic and supported the Australian dollar. Nevertheless, the divergence of the directions of the monetary policy of the Fed and other world central banks supports the US dollar. This situation can also be attributed to the pair AUD / USD. If the Fed plans to raise the interest rate, the RBA intends to adhere to the current rate at least until the second half of 2018.
    We are waiting for today news from the US, which will increase volatility in pairs with the US dollar, including in the pair AUD / USD. A number of important macro data will be published between 12:30 and 14:00 (GMT), among which the weekly report of the US Department of Labor, containing data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast is expected to decrease to 242,000 versus 245,000 for the previous period, which should positively affect the US dollar. Also data on industrial production in the US for May and the use of production capacity will be published.
    However, today and in the near future investors will still assess the results of the two-day meeting of the Fed and the increase in the interest rate in the US.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support and resistance levels
    Unlike other major currency pairs, the pair AUD / USD rose today during the Asian and European sessions, which was supported, among other things, by positive data from the Australian labor market published this morning.
    Nevertheless, it is worth paying attention to the indications of the indicators OsMA and Stochastics, which on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts are deployed to short positions. On the general background of today's US dollar growth, the AUD / USD pair is likely to follow other dollar-denominated currency pairs. If in the course of the US trading session there are positive macro data on the US, it will probably become the trigger for the fall of the AUD / USD pair.
    "First Swallow" will be a breakdown of the short-term support level 0.7580 (EMA50 on the 1-hour chart). The fall in the AUD / USD pair in this case may continue to the support level of 0.7540 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
    The breakdown of the support level of 0.7514 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will confirm the scenario for the fall of the pair AUD / USD. The closest target in case of further decline of the pair will be the levels of 0.7495 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%).
    The following targets in case of breakdown of this support level - 0.7330 (November, May lows), 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum wave of the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.
    If the pair AUD / USD maintains its positive dynamics, its growth will continue with the targets of 0.7635, 0.7680, 0.7760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014).
    Support levels: 0.7580, 0.7540, 0.7514, 0.7495, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300
    Resistance levels: 0.7635, 0.7680, 0.7700, 0.7760

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 0.7570. Stop-Loss 0.7640. Take-Profit 0.7540, 0.7514, 0.7495, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300
    Buy Stop 0.7640. Stop-Loss 0.7570. Take-Profit 0.7680, 0.7700, 0.7760




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

  3. #63
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    XAG/USD: The dollar will build up positions
    16/06/2017
    Current dynamics

    After on Wednesday the Fed announced an increase in the key interest rate, the dollar is steadily increasing its positions in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ rose above the level of 88.60. The central bank also made it clear that it could once again raise rates in 2017, which provided additional support to the dollar. Yesterday, ambiguous macro data on the United States came out. Although the weekly report on the number of claims for unemployment benefits showed a value of 237,000 against the forecast of 242,000, the labor market in the US looks quite stable.
    As you know, on Wednesday the Fed raised the interest rate by 25 basis points, to the range of 1-1.25% and signaled the possibility of another rate hike near the end of the year. The US Central Bank also planned to reduce its balance by $ 4.5 trillion later this year.
    Higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive for investors, and lead to the sale of precious metals that do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing.
    The Fed raised the rate, despite the recent slowdown in consumer inflation in the US. The Fed also reiterated that it plans to cut its budget, which is about 4.5 trillion US dollars. According to some economists' estimates, the reduction of assets by $ 675 billion by 2019 will be equivalent to raising the key short-term interest rate of the Federal Reserve by a quarter of a percentage point. The process of reducing the balance of the Fed will also lead to an increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which will be accompanied by a strengthening of the dollar and, again, a decline in the price of gold and silver. Precious metals are getting cheaper, even despite the continuing geopolitical tensions. Apparently, the prospect of another increase near the end of the year outweighs the chalice in favor of sellers and exerts additional pressure on the assets of the shelter, including silver.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    The price of silver has been steadily declining for the past two weeks. The XAG / USD pair broke through the important support levels of 17.35 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 17.14 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 16.85 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% corrective growth to the pair's decline since August 2016 and the level of 20.59), 16.05, 15.72 (low of 2016) and continues to decline in the descending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts.
    The lower boundary of the channels passes below the level of 15.72 (the minimums of 2016). This mark and will become a medium-term goal in case of further strengthening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and a decline in the pair XAG / USD.
    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts went to the buyers’ side, signaling a possible short-term upward correction with targets near the levels of 16.85, 17.00. The immediate goal in the case of continued growth of the pair XAG / USD – are the levels of 17.35, 17.58 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%). Here, the upper line of the descending channel passes on the daily and weekly charts.
    More distant medium-term goals in the case of further growth of the pair XAG / USD – are the levels of 17.86 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 18.17 (Fibonacci 50%), 18.48 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.75 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).
    Negative dynamics still prevails.
    Support levels: 16.65, 16.20, 16.05, 15.72
    Resistance levels: 16.85, 17.00, 17.14, 17.35, 17.58, 17.70, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 16.65. Stop-Loss 16.85. Take-Profit 16.20, 16.05, 15.72
    Buy Stop 16.85. Stop-Loss 16.65. Take-Profit 17.00, 17.14, 17.35, 17.58, 17.70, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

  4. #64
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    Brent: the number of drilling in the US rose again
    19/06/2017

    Current dynamics

    The new trading week, the price of oil begins with a decline. Brent crude futures for ICE Futures fell to $ 47.23 a barrel during today's Asian session. Published on Friday, data from the American oil service company Baker Hughes showed that the number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week, this time by six units to 747 units, which was the 22nd consecutive week of the increase.
    Earlier, quotes of oil fell for four consecutive weeks. Despite the recent extension of the OPEC-Russia deal to reduce oil production for another 9 months, the excess supply in the oil market remains, and the world's oil reserves remain high. Oil prices since the beginning of this year have fallen by 17%, losing the positions won after the deal in late 2016.
    The increase in oil production in the United States and other major oil-producing countries largely offset OPEC's efforts to limit oil production. After the entry into force of the OPEC agreement other countries as a whole reduced production by about 1.8 million barrels a day. During the same time, the US increased production by 750,000 barrels per day to 9.3 million barrels a day, the maximum since the summer of 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset. And this apart from prey in other countries, such as Brazil, Libya, Canada.
    Libya recently reported plans to increase oil production by 160,000 barrels per day. Previously, production in Libya at these facilities was suspended for almost two years. According to experts, by the end of July, daily oil production in Libya could grow to 1 million barrels.
    There are all prerequisites to the fact that the volume of oil supply in the US will also increase more and more, further reducing the effect of the agreement within OPEC. Increasing the efficiency of oil production in the United States can reduce the cost of production to less than $ 40 per barrel against $ 63 in 2014.
    Now investors expect further price reductions and are hedged against the potential drop in oil prices in the coming months below $ 41 per barrel.

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    On a weekly chart, the price of Brent crude oil broke the lower border of the rising channel near the current level of 47.10 and develops a downward trend. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers. On the monthly chart the indicators also unfold to short positions.
    At the beginning of the month the price broke through the important support levels of 51.35 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (the Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) and is currently declining to The support level is 46.20 (the Fibonacci level is 50.0%). In case of consolidation below level 46.20, the upward trend of the price of Brent oil may be canceled.
    The scenario for strengthening the price is connected with the breakdown of the local resistance level of 48.35 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and further growth within the rising channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 62.00.
    Nevertheless, negative sentiments continue to dominate the oil market, and against this background, oil prices remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline.
    Support levels: 47.10, 46.20, 45.50
    Resistance levels: 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35, 52.50, 53.00

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 47.10. Stop-Loss 47.80. Take-Profit 46.20, 45.50, 43.50
    Buy Stop 47.80. Stop-Loss 47.10. Take-Profit 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35, 52.50, 53.00




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

  5. #65
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    XAG/USD: precious metals are getting cheaper amid plans of the Fed
    20/06/2017
    Current dynamics


    After last Wednesday the Fed announced an increase in the key interest rate, precious metals continued to go down in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ rose above the level of 88.60, to the level of 88.75 on Monday. The American Central Bank made it clear that it could once again raise rates in 2017, and also planned to reduce its balance by $ 4.5 trillion later this year.
    According to the CME Group, futures on interest rates by the Fed show that the probability of another increase in Fed rates this year is about 47% (against 41% last week).
    Rising rates usually support the dollar, making it more attractive to investors. Higher interest rates also lead to the sale of precious metals, which do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing.
    President of the Fed-New York William Dudley said on Monday that he was "very confident" of "long-term" economic growth in the US, which is the third longest in the history of the United States. American stock markets are growing steadily. The weakening of the hype surrounding US President Trump, the stabilization of the political situation in the Eurozone after the presidential and parliamentary elections in France, also contribute to reducing political risks and prices for precious metals.
    Nevertheless, further strengthening of the dollar clearly lacks an additional positive momentum.
    Some weaker than expected macro data from the US, some people question the Fed's determination to further tighten the monetary policy in the US. Perhaps, the statements of a number of representatives of the Federal Reserve scheduled for this week will once again give confidence to investors who are betting on the growth of the dollar.
    For example, on Tuesday, scheduled speeches by the president of the Fed-Boston Eric Rosengren, executive director of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan and Deputy Chairman of the Federal Reserve Stanley Fischer. On Friday, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and FRS President St. Louis James Bullard will deliver a speech.

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support and resistance levels
    Meanwhile, the price of silver has been steadily declining for the past two weeks. Today, with the opening of the trading day, the price of silver is growing, however, the negative trend continues. The pair XAG / USD broke through the important support levels of 17.33 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 17.10 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 16.88 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to the pair decline since August 2016 and level of 20.60) and Continues to decline in the descending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts with immediate targets near the levels of 16.15, 15.73 (low in 2016)
    The lower boundary of the channels passes below the level of 15.73 (the minimums of 2016). This mark and will be the goal in case of further strengthening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and the decline of the pair XAG / USD for the next 3-4 weeks.
    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts went to the buyers side, signaling a possible short-term upward correction with targets near the level of 16.88.
    More distant goals in the case of the resumption of the growth of the pair XAG / USD - the levels of 17.33 (May highs), 17.59 (Fibonacci level 38.2%). Here, the top line of the descending channel passes on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts.
    More distant medium-term goals in the case of further growth of the XAG / USD pair - the levels of 18.18 (Fibonacci 50% and EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.76 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).
    So far, negative dynamics prevails. Support levels: 16.30, 16.15, 15.73
    Resistance levels: 16.88, 17.10, 17.33, 17.59, 18.18, 18.76

    Trading scenarios

    Sell Stop 16.45. Stop-Loss 16.70. Take-Profit 16.25, 16.15, 15.73
    Buy Stop 16.70. Stop-Loss 16.45. Take-Profit 17.00, 17.10, 17.33, 17.59, 18.17, 18.48, 18.76






    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

  6. #66
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    GBP/USD: it's too early to think about raising rates
    21/06/2017

    Current dynamics

    As you know, last week the Bank of England kept its interest rate at 0.25%; however, it surprised the market participants. Three of the eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to tighten monetary policy, citing signs of accelerating inflation in the UK. This information caused a sharp reaction of the markets. The GBP / USD pair strengthened in the moment by 100 points, however, subsequently the pound declined; The Bank of England did not take any measures in either direction.
    Nevertheless, the pound continues to remain under pressure in the foreign exchange market amid political uncertainty. Conservatives failed to achieve an absolute majority in the British parliament, and talks between British Prime Minister Therese May on the formation of a coalition with the Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist party have reached a deadlock. After the June 8 elections, the pair GBP / USD fell by about 350 points. And the pressure on the pair seems to be mounting.
    Yesterday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that it is still too early to think about raising rates in the UK, which further lowered the expectations of British currency buyers for its growth.
    As shown by the data published last week, real wages in May decreased by 0.6% compared to the same period last year. The incomes of the country's population are declining because of inflation. Consumer spending is one of the important components of GDP growth in the UK, and their decline adversely affects the growth of the British economy.
    Today (at 10:30 GMT) the Queen of Great Britain is expected to speak, at 11:00 - Andrew Haldane, Executive Director for Monetary and Credit Analysis and Statistics of the Bank of England, as well as a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, and on Friday (18:00 GMT) - member of the Committee for Monetary Policy of the Bank of England Christine Forbes.
    It is likely that key representatives of the Bank of England will also express their opinion in the spirit of their boss Mark Carney about the prematureness of raising rates in the UK, which will further weaken the position of the pound.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    After the parliamentary elections in Great Britain on June 8, the GBP / USD pair broke through the important support levels of 1.2800 (EMA200 on day and 4-hour charts), 1.2715 (EMA144 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart) and develops a downward trend.
    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
    The pound continues to remain under pressure amid uncertainty around Brexit.
    In case of breakdown of the support level 1.2430 (the lower limit of the uplink on the weekly chart), the GBP / USD pair will go to the support levels of 1.2370, 1.2110, 1.2000 (the minimums of the global wave of the GBP / USD decline, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
    Negative dynamics in the pair GBP / USD prevails.
    The alternative scenario implies the return of the GBP / USD pair above the level of 1.2800 with the prospect of further growth within the upward channel on the daily chart with targets of 1.3050 (annual highs), 1.3210 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement correction from 1.7200 level), 1.3300 (upper Border of the rising channel on the daily chart).
    Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2370, 1.2340, 1.2110
    Resistance levels: 1.2640, 1.2715, 1.2800, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.2580. Stop-Loss 1.2650. Take-Profit 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110
    Buy Stop 1.2650. Stop-Loss 1.2580. Take-Profit 1.2715, 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

  7. #67
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    Brent: the reduction of stocks in the US did not change the mood of investors
    22/06/2017

    Current dynamics

    According to a weekly report released yesterday by the US Department of Energy, US oil inventories fell by 2.451 million barrels last week (the forecast was expected to reduce inventories by 2.1 million barrels). Immediately after the publication of the Ministry of Energy data, oil prices went up, however, for a short time. Growth was unstable, and in the next three hours the price for Brent crude oil fell by $ 1.7 to $ 44.7 per barrel.
    WTI futures on NYMEX traded yesterday with a decline of about 2.4%. Contracts for Brent crude fell by 2.63% to 44.81 dollars per barrel.
    This behavior of the price can only be explained by one thing: investors do not believe that OPEC's efforts will help restore the balance in the oil market and strengthen prices. Moreover, the countries of the cartel began to sell oil from their own storage facilities, while still cutting production. The increase in production in Nigeria and Libya, part of OPEC, but exempt from the reduction obligations, weakens the hopes for the restoration of oil prices. The US has been very successful in this situation, which continues to increase oil production, filling the vacant niche in the oil market. Oil production in the US last week increased again, by 20,000 barrels per day, more than 9.3 million barrels per day, the highest since summer 2015.
    The number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week, this time by six units to 747 units, which was the 22nd consecutive week of the increase. Excess supply in the oil market remains, and the world's oil reserves remain high. Oil prices since the beginning of this year have fallen by about 28%, completely losing the positions won after the conclusion of the OPEC deal in late 2016.
    Today, there is a slight recovery in the price of oil after a non-stop three-day decline. Nevertheless, the oil market is dominated by a strong negative momentum. The oil market seems to be shifting again into a bearish phase.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support and resistance levels
    On a weekly chart, the Brent oil price broke the lower border of the rising channel near the level of 47.50 and develops a downward trend. On the daily chart, the price came very close to the lower boundary of the descending channel, passing near the mark of 44.65.
    Today, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts have turned to long positions. However, this indicates for the time being a short-term upward correction. On daily and weekly charts, indicators remain on the side of sellers.
    Negative dynamics is growing at an accelerated pace. The price broke through the important support levels of 51.35 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), 46.20 (Fibonacci level 50.0%). There are two remaining milestones left - support levels of 43.50 (November lows), 41.70 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), the breakdown of which will finally return prices for Brent crude oil in a downtrend. In case of consolidation below level 46.20, the upward trend of the price of Brent oil may be canceled.
    Return to consideration of long positions is possible only if the price returns above the short-term local resistance level of 47.25 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and the level of 47.50 (the lower limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).
    The oil market is dominated by negative sentiment, and against this background, oil prices remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline.
    Support levels: 44.65, 43.50, 41.70
    Resistance levels: 45.50, 46.20, 47.25, 47.50, 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 44.90. Stop-Loss Section 46.10. Take-Profit 44.65, 43.50, 41.70
    Buy Stop 46.10. Stop-Loss 44.90. Take-Profit 47.25, 47.50, 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

  8. #68
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    DJIA: investors are pausing
    23/06/2017

    Current dynamics

    After the active growth and the achievement earlier this week of new one-month highs, the main US stock indexes suspended growth. The DJIA index is down for the fourth consecutive day, however, since the opening of today's trading day is trading in a narrow range near the mark of 21400.00. It seems that investors took a pause before the publication of fresh macro data on the US economy.
    At 13:45 and 14:00 (GMT) will be published indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector and services sector (PMI business activity from Markit Economics) in the US for June, as well as a report on the sale of new homes in the US in May . The PMI index is an important indicator of the business environment and the general state of the US economy. The indicator, exceeding the mark of 50, in general is a positive factor for US stock indices. The expected growth in indicators will support the dollar and stock indexes.
    At 18:15 (GMT), the speech of FOMC member Jerome Powell will begin. From it, investors will want to hear information about the prospects for inflation and interest rates in the US. If Powell, like the other leaders of the Fed this week, speaks in favor of a softer scenario of raising rates in the US, this will support American indices.
    American stock indexes rose on the basis of the current month, which ends next week. Macro statistics coming out across the US are generally quite positive to have a positive impact on US stock markets.
    Their positive dynamics are still being preserved.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    On Tuesday, DJIA exceeded its recent annual highs and reached a new absolute maximum near the mark of 21538.0. Nevertheless, subsequently the DJIA index decreased and today at the beginning of the European session is traded at the short-term support level of 21380.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart).
    Here, the lower limit of the ascending channel passes on the 4-hour chart. The current level is quite strong, and about the arrival of today positive macro data from the US DJIA index can rebound from this level of 21380.0 and resume growth.
    At the same time, the indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts turned to short positions, signaling a possible continuation of the downward correction. There may be a correction decrease to the level of 21117.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Deeper correction movement is possible to the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart (level 20900.0).
    If the downward trend is to increase, the decline in the index may continue to support levels of 20500.0 (the May lows and EMA144 on the daily chart), 20360.0, 20158.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart, December highs and Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to wave growth from the level 15660.0 after the recovery in February this year to a collapse in the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% is near the mark of 21538.0).
    The positive dynamics of the US stock market and DJIA index remains. Only in case of breakdown of the support level 20158.0 can we speak about the breakdown of the bullish trend.
    Support levels: 21380.0, 21170.0, 20900.0, 20500.0, 20360.0, 20158.0, 19300.0
    Resistance levels: 21538.0, 22000.0

    Trading Scenarios

    Buy Stop 21460.0. Stop-Loss 21310.0. Take-Profit 21538.0, 22000.0
    Sell Stop 21310.0. Stop-Loss 21460.0. Take-Profit 21170.0, 20900.0, 20500.0, 20360.0, 20158.0




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

  9. #69
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    EuroStoxx50: stock indexes are growing today
    26/06/2017

    Current dynamics

    Today, global stock indexes are growing. The stabilization of oil prices renders support to the stock market. In recent days, there has been a sharp drop in energy prices.
    The price of WTI oil last week fell by more than 20% from the February high. Fears of investors regarding the further decline in prices remain against the background of an overabundance of oil supply in the world.
    Despite OPEC measures to limit production, world oil reserves in the world remain at high levels. A sharp fall in oil prices led to a decline in key indices.
    The last three days the price of oil is recovering. Oil Brent went up today by 1.4% to 46.20 dollars per barrel. The sub-index of the oil and gas sector StoxxEurope 600 rose by 0.9%.
    Other major European stock indices (CAC40, DAX30, EuroSTOXX50) are also growing today. The growth of European indices is also promoted by the growth of shares of European banks after on Sunday the authorities of Italy announced that they are ready to spend 17 billion euros in the process of liquidation of two regional creditors.
    EuroSTOXX50 grew today by 0.7% in the first three hours since the beginning of the European trading session to the level of 3575.0.
    Positive macro data, received from Germany at the beginning of the European trading session, also contributed to the growth of the indexes DAX30, EuroSTOXX50.
    The index of economic expectations in Germany in June was 106.8 (forecast was 106.4), the German business sentiment index in June was 115.1 (forecast was 114.4), the current conditions in Germany in June 124.1 (forecast Was 123.3).
    Now investors are waiting for data from the Eurozone on inflation, which will be published later on Friday. Annual inflation in June is expected to slow in Italy, Spain, France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole to 1.2% from 1.4% in May, reaching its lowest level in 2017. If the forecast is justified, then the ECB's predilection for the reduction of the QE program is expected to decline even more.
    As you know, in early June, the ECB kept its benchmark interest rate at 0%. The QE program, in which the ECB monthly buys up European assets worth 60 billion euros, also remained unchanged. The ECB Governing Council stated that the curtailment of the QE program has not yet been planned and is even ready to increase the volume of the quantitative easing program if necessary.
    And this is a positive factor for the European stock market.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support and resistance levels
    And yet, despite today's growth, the EuroStoxx50 index remains under pressure, gradually decreasing in the descending channel on the daily chart. Only in case of breakdown of resistance levels 3590.0 (the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart), 3610.0 (June highs) can we speak about restoring the positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index and its further growth.
    The reverse scenario is connected with the breakdown of the support level 3542.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the further decrease of the EuroStoxx50 index with the immediate target at the support level of 3495.0 (the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart and the April highs observed on the eve of the presidential election in France).
    And at the same time, the medium-term positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index remains, while the index is above the key support level of 33.80 (EMA200 on the daily chart and Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of growth since June 2016).
    In case of breakdown of the level 3610.0, the growth of the EuroStoxx50 index may resume within the uplink on a weekly chart. At least, the ECB's tendency to continue the extra soft monetary policy promotes this.
    Support levels: 3542.0, 3495.0, 3380.0
    Resistance levels: 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 3540.0 Stop-Loss 3580.0. Take-Profit 3510.0, 3495.0, 3435.0, 3380.0
    Buy Stop 3580.0. Stop-Loss 3540.0. Take-Profit 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

  10. #70
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    XAU/USD: the dollar drops before the performance Janet Jellen
    27/06/2017

    Current dynamics

    With the opening of today's trading day, and especially at the beginning of the European session, the dollar is falling in the foreign exchange market. Published yesterday, data from the US Department of Commerce showed a reduction in orders for durable goods in May by 1.1% compared to the previous month, which was the strongest decline in six months. Demand for durable goods in the US in May fell for the second consecutive month.
    Other macro data from the US also come out with weaker indicators. So, published on Friday, indicators of activity in the manufacturing and services sectors in the US declined in June. The preliminary index of supply managers (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector in June fell to 52.1 against 52.7 in May, reaching a 9-month low. The preliminary index of supply managers (PMI) for the US service sector fell to a 3-month low, reaching 53 versus 53.6 in May.
    The decline in macroeconomic indicators and the low level of inflation in the US can not but worry the Fed leaders.
    Previously, the Federal Reserve raised the key interest rate to a range of 1% -1.25%, saying it expects another rate hike this year. However, market participants do not believe that the Fed can really proceed with further tightening of monetary policy amid weak data on inflation in the US.
    "The US Federal Open Market Committee can refrain from actions and analyze the development of the macroeconomic situation in the coming quarters", said Fed President St. Louis James Bullard on Friday.
    Today, market participants will wait for the speech of the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, which will start at 5:00 pm (GMT). If Janet Yellen again signals about the Fed's inclination to tighten monetary policy, confirming its view that slowing inflation is a temporary phenomenon, then the dollar will quickly regain its positions in the foreign exchange market.
    According to the CME Group, futures for interest rates by the Fed indicate that the probability of another increase in the Fed's rates this year is about 50%. Rising rates usually support the dollar, making it more attractive to investors. At the same time, prices for precious metals, denominated in US currency, are declining.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    Meanwhile, the price of gold is growing with the opening of today's trading day. The pair XAU / USD pushed back from the support level of 1245.00 (EMA144, EMA200 on the daily chart), however, its growth stopped at the short-term resistance level of 1253.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
    The pair XAU / USD is in the descending channel on the 4-hour chart. More seriously to the recovery of the upward movement of the pair XAU / USD can be attributed only after its consolidation above the resistance level 1257.00 (EMA200, EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the 4-hour chart).
    If the trend of strengthening the dollar will gain momentum, then the price of gold will continue to decline gradually. The return of the pair XAU / USD into the zone below the key support level of 1245.00 will strengthen its negative dynamics.
    The breakdown of the support level of 1220.00 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016) will increase the risks of a return to the downtrend.
    Support levels: 1248.00, 1245.00, 1236.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00
    Resistance levels: 1253.00, 1257.00, 1260.00, 1277.00, 1295.00, 1305.00

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1249.00. Stop-Loss 1254.00. Take-Profit 1245.00, 1236.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00
    Buy Stop 1254.00. Stop-Loss 1249.00. Take-Profit 1257.00, 1260.00, 1277.00, 1295.00, 1305.00





    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

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