Tifia Daily Market Analytics

NZD/USD: improvement of trade balance indicators
28/04/2017

Current dynamics
According to official data released on Friday, the state of trade balance of New Zealand in March compared with the same period last year improved. In March, the trade surplus amounted to NZ $ 332 million against the negative balance in February (-50 million NZ dollars). The improvement of the indicator was ensured by the growth of exports from New Zealand, primarily dairy and meat products to China. According to Tehsin Islam, a representative of the statistics department of the New Zealand government, "China remains to be the main buyer of our export goods, it accounts for a quarter of total exports of dairy products in value terms. In March, exports to China exceeded $ 1 billion New Zealand dollars for the first time since March 2014 ". Not surprisingly, the New Zealand dollar is so responsive to macro statistics from China.
Also on Friday came strong data on business optimism and business activity in New Zealand (11.0 and 37.7%, respectively) for April. Indicators of company confidence indicate a strong growth in the country's economy, which is growing for the eighth consecutive year.
Nevertheless, the New Zealand currency reacted poorly to the positive data presented in the morning. In the Asia-Pacific region, tensions are growing as the situation on the Korean Peninsula worsens. So, in a recent interview with Reuters, US President Donald Trump warned about the likelihood of a "major conflict" with North Korea. It is likely that, down to a reduction in tensions in the region, New Zealand and Australian dollars will be under pressure.
Also, commodity currencies came under pressure after earlier this week the US decided to introduce import duties on wood from Canada. This news testifies to the strengthening of protectionism in world trade by the US, and this has a negative impact on commodity currencies.
Today we are waiting for data from the USA. At 12:30 (GMT) a report on GDP for the first quarter (preliminary release) is published. A strong report will positively affect the quotations of the US dollar, including in the pair NZD / USD. According to the forecast, the US annual GDP grew by 1.3% in the first quarter (against 2.1% in the previous quarter). Also at this time, published indices of expenditures on personal consumption, which are important indicators of inflation and the price index of GDP for the first quarter.
At 13:45 (GMT) Chicago PMI is published with an assessment of economic activity in the states of Illinois, Indiana and Michigan, and at 14:00 - consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in April.
In view of the importance of the data, a surge in volatility in the foreign exchange market is expected at the time of publication. The dynamics of the US dollar and the major dollar pairs in this period of time will depend entirely on macro statistical indicators for the United States.
It is also necessary to take into account that today is the last business day of the week and month before the long weekend (on Monday - bank holiday in view of the celebration of Labor Day on May 1). It is possible to fix long positions of the dollar against commodity currencies, which will cause the growth of their quotations against the US dollar, including in the pair NZD / USD.

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today's trading day, the pair NZD / USD continued to decline, despite the "positive dose" from New Zealand. At the moment, the pair NZD / USD is trading at a strong support level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014). At this level are also the minimums of December 2016, and the lower border of the descending channel passes on the daily chart.
The strong negative impulse predominates, and the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and weekly charts recommend short positions.
From this level it is possible, however, as a retreat, and its breakdown with the acceleration of the descending dynamics.
In case of rebound from the level of 0.6860, the pair NZD / USD may return to the depth of the descending channel with the prospect of growth to the levels of 0.6990 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7050 (EMA200 on the daily chart). Between these levels, just the upper limit of the descending channel passes on the daily chart. The beginning of the implementation of this scenario will be connected with the breakdown of the nearest resistance levels 0.6890, 0.6918.
In case of breakdown of the support level of 0.6860, the global downtrend of the NZD / USD pair, which began in July 2014, will resume. The minima of the wave of this trend are close to the level of 0.6260, which were reached in September 2015, and from which the current upward correction began. The level of 0.6860 is the key level (the Fibonacci level is 23.6%) in this correction.
An alternative scenario for the medium-term growth of the NZD / USD pair will be possible only after the pair is consolidated above the key resistance level 0.7050 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Below this level, the negative dynamics of the pair NZD / USD prevails.

Support levels: 0.6860, 0.6800, 0.6680
Resistance levels: 0.6890, 0.6918, 0.6990, 0.7050

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6850. Stop-Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6800, 0.6700, 0.6680
Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop-Loss 0.6850. Take-Profit 0.6920, 0.6990, 0.7050





*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Brent: prices are falling again
02/05/2017

Current dynamics
According to the data published on Friday from the American oil service company Baker Hughes, the number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased by 9 units to 697 units last week. Thus, almost continuously increasing, the number of active drilling oil rigs in the United States has now reached a level almost two times higher than the minimum marked more than a year ago. The observed sustained recovery of shale oil production in the US substantially negates the effect of OPEC efforts to reduce production and create an artificial deficit in the oil market. At the same time, US oil companies have significant reserve capacity. Despite the increase in drilling activity this year, while only about 70% of existing drilling rigs work. The risks of additional increase in oil production in the US are very significant. According to the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil production in the US by the end of this year will grow by 680,000 barrels per day compared with the end of 2016.
At the same time, production in non-OPEC countries is increasing. So, on Monday in the Libyan oil company National Oil Corp. Said that production had peaked since 2014, rising to a level of 760,000 barrels per day.
As a result of yesterday, futures for Brent crude on ICE Futures fell in price by 1.02% to 51.52 dollars per barrel.
Oil production outside OPEC, according to the IEA, this year may increase by 485,000 barrels per day. Reserves of oil in world storage facilities are still significantly higher than average 5-year levels.
All this raises doubts among investors that OPEC will prolong the period of production reduction at the next meeting of the cartel, which will be held on May 25. If the agreement is extended, it will support oil prices in the second half of the year.
If not, the oil market could collapse and again quickly return to the lows of 2016, when a barrel of Brent crude oil was worth about 27.00 dollars.
Today at 20:30 (GMT), the American Petroleum Institute (API) publishes a weekly report with data on oil reserves and four major petroleum products: gasoline, kerosene, distillates and fuel oil in US storage. Another increase in stocks is expected, which will negatively affect oil prices. Previous value: +0.897 million barrels.

Support and resistance levels
During the last seven trading sessions, the price for Brent crude oil broke through the most important short- and medium-term support levels of 52.60 (EMA200 on 1-hour, EMA144 on the daily chart), 51.90 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
At the beginning of today's European session, the spot price for Brent crude oil is close to $ 51.50 per barrel, through which the bottom line of the rising channel and EMA50 pass on the weekly chart. Breakdown of this level of support will significantly increase the growing negative trend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the weekly, daily, 4-hour charts went to the side of sellers.
In the case of a confirmed breakdown of the support level of 50.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the correction to decrease from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) and fixing below the level of 50.00, the upward trend in the price of Brent crude oil will be canceled.
An alternative scenario for growth is associated with a return of the price above the level of 52.60 and further growth in the uplink on the daily chart. The upper boundary of this channel passes near the level of 57.50 (the highs of the year).
So far, negative dynamics prevails.
Support levels: 51.00, 50.70, 50.00
Levels of resistance: 51.90, 52.60, 53.40, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 51.30. Stop-Loss 52.10. Take-Profit 51.00, 50.70, 50.00, 49.50
Buy Stop 52.10. Stop-Loss 51.30. Take-Profit 52.60, 53.40, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50





*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

NZD/USD: wage growth still weak
03/05/2017

Current dynamics
After yesterday (22:45 GMT) the Bureau of Statistics of New Zealand published strong data on the state of the labor market in the country, the New Zealand dollar rose in the foreign exchange market. The unemployment rate in New Zealand in the first quarter decreased more than expected (4.9% against the forecast of 5.2% and the same level in the 4th quarter of last year). The NZD / USD pair jumped 0.5% or 33 points at the time of publication of the data, however, then declined just as rapidly and at the beginning of today's European session it was already trading near the opening level of 0.6933.
According to market participants, although unemployment levels are lower than expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not rush to raise interest rates. The unemployment rate of 4.9% corresponds to the forecast of the central bank published earlier this year. At the same time, the employment report released today points to a weak wage growth.
Also, the RBNZ is concerned about the recent decision by the US to introduce import duties on wood from Canada. This news is evidence of increased protectionism in world trade by the US, and this has a negative impact on commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar.
It is likely that at the meeting scheduled for the next week (May 10), RBNZ will not change its forecast of the dynamics of interest rates. It is expected that the RBNZ will start raising rates not earlier than 2019.
At the same time, the attention of traders will be riveted to today's Fed decision on the interest rate, which will be published at 18:00 (GMT). The probability that the Fed will raise the rate today is about 5%, according to the CME Group. Investors will follow the accompanying comments. The US central bank will report its assessment of the economic situation and may signal the prospects for interest rates for the coming months. The press conference of the chairman of the FRS, Janet Yellen will not. She will speak later on Friday.
The Fed statement may contain information on the probability of an increase in the key rate at the next meeting, which will be held on June 13-14. The probability of the June increase is estimated at 71%, and market participants expect two more interest rate hikes this year. Also, the Fed may signal that it will start cutting its portfolio of bonds and other assets already in September, which now amounts to about $ 4.5 trillion. All this can dramatically strengthen the position of the US dollar, if, of course, the Fed today will say what it expects market participants.

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today's trading day, the pair NZD / USD has risen sharply on positive data from the New Zealand labor market. During the European session, the NZD / USD pair resumed its decline. At the moment, the pair NZD / USD is trading at the short-term support level of 0.6930 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), however, OsMA and Stochastic indicators moved to the sellers' line on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts. The pair NZD / USD was unable to develop an upward movement above the level of 0.6970.
There is probably a second test of support level 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014). At this level are also the minimums of December 2016, and the lower border of the descending channel passes on the daily chart.
The negative impulse predominates. In case of breakdown of the support level of 0.6860, the global downtrend of the NZD / USD pair, which began in July 2014, will resume. The minima of the wave of this trend are close to the level of 0.6260, which were reached in September 2015, and from which the current upward correction began. The level of 0.6860 is the key level (the Fibonacci level is 23.6%) in this correction.
In case of rebound from the level of 0.6860, the pair NZD / USD may return to the depth of the descending channel with the prospect of growth to the levels of 0.6980 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7050 (EMA200 on the daily chart, the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart).
The scenario for the medium-term growth of the NZD / USD pair will be possible only after the pair is consolidated above the key resistance level of 0.7050. Below this level, the negative dynamics of the pair NZD / USD prevails.
Support levels: 0.6918, 0.6890, 0.6860, 0.6800, 0.6680
Resistance levels: 0.6980, 0.7050

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.6970. Take-Profit 0.6900, 0.6890, 0.6860, 0.6800, 0.6680
Buy Stop 0.6970. Stop-Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.7000, 0.7050



*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

EUR/USD: The Fed kept interest rates at the same level
04/05/2017
Current dynamics
As it became known, during the two-day meeting, the Fed kept interest rates at the same level, in the range of 0.75% -1.00%. The decision was taken unanimously, by 9 votes out of 9.
The leaders noted the observed slowdown in US economic growth since the beginning of the year, but characterized it as having a "temporary nature." The decision of the Fed was expected. Now, market participants with a probability of 75% expect a rate increase at the June meeting of the Fed (June 13-14).
The dollar responded with growth to the decision of the Fed and continued to increase after the publication of the decision. Despite the fact that yesterday the EUR / USD fell by 4%, losing almost 100 points, today the EUR / USD pair has fully recovered at the beginning of the European session.
Portion of positive from the Eurozone in the form of macroeconomic statistics, received at the beginning of the European session, allowed the euro to strengthen its position in the foreign exchange market.
Retail sales in the Eurozone in March, according to updated data, increased by 0.3% (+ 2.3% in annual terms). Data on retail sales for February were also revised upwards: to + 0.5% (+ 1.7% in annual terms). The composite index of purchasing managers (PMI) of the Eurozone for April was revised upwards to 56.8 from 56.7. In March, the index was 56.4, and in April reached a 6-year high.
During yesterday's European trading session (at 09:00 GMT), data on the Eurozone's GDP (preliminary value) for the first quarter were published. The GDP growth was + 0.5% (+ 1.7% in annual terms), which coincided with the forecast.
It is unlikely that the data presented will have an impact on the leadership of the ECB, which considers the growth of the Eurozone economy still weak enough to begin curtailing the QE program in the Eurozone. Unemployment in the Eurozone remains at 9.5%, while inflation is still below the ECB's target level (just under 2.0%).
As you know, at the end of last month, the ECB kept interest rates at the same level (the ECB's main interest rate is 0%, the deposit rate for commercial banks is negative and is -0.4%). As the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, stated at the next press conference, "the incoming data strengthen our confidence that the observed economic growth will continue to strengthen and expand," however, "the risks ... are still shifted downwards, and they are connected, first of all , with global factors ".
Today (at 16:30 GMT) ECB President Mario Draghi will start the speech. Volatility in EUR trades could rise sharply in the course of his speech. Mario Draghi is able to unfold the markets, especially if his speech touches on the subject of the monetary policy of the ECB.

Support and resistance levels
After the first round of the presidential elections in France, the pair EUR / USD continues to remain in the range, mainly between the levels of 1.0850, 1.0950. The EUR/USD is also above the short-term support level 1.0875 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
Positive short-term dynamics of the EUR / USD pair prevails above this level, as evidenced by the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, weekly charts.
Also above the support level 1.0800 (EMA200 on the daily chart), medium-term positive dynamics is also preserved. The EUR/USD is at the top of the rising channel on the daily chart, its upper limit runs between the levels of 1.0950, 1.1000.
The recent positive macroeconomic data from the Eurozone stimulate the growth of the number of euro buyers. If on Sunday Macron wins the final victory in the second round of the presidential elections in France, then the euro's positions will significantly strengthen in the currency market, including the EUR / USD pair.
In case of breakdown of the levels of 1.0950, 1.1000, the pair EUR / USD may go to resistance levels 1.1280 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline from 1.3900), 1.1340 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).
An alternative scenario for a reduction in the medium term will become relevant if the EUR / USD pair returns to the support level of 1.0800. The targets for the decline will then be levels 1.0770 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.0630 (bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart), 1.0580 (April lows), 1.0530, 1.0500.
Development of such a scenario will also contribute to the systematic implementation of the decisions of the Fed on a gradual increase in the interest rate in the US and a reduction in the balance of the Fed.
Support levels: 1.0875, 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0770, 1.0700, 1.0630, 1.0580, 1.0530, 1.0500
Levels of resistance: 1.0950, 1.1000, 1.1200, 1.1280, 1.1340

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.0870. Stop-Loss 1.0910. Goals 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0770, 1.0700, 1.0630, 1.0580, 1.0500
Buy Stop 1.0960. Stop-Loss. Goals 1.1000, 1.1200, 1.1280, 1.1340





*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

USD/CAD: focus on US labor market data
05/05/2017

Current dynamics
The unconditional center of attention of investors today is the publication of data from the US labor market scheduled for 12:30 (GMT) for April. It is expected that unemployment in April rose by 0.1% to 4.6%, the number of new jobs created outside agricultural production increased by 185 000 (after rising by 98 000 in March). At the same time, the average hourly wage increased by 0.3% (against + 0.2% in March). In general, the data can be called positive. On them, the US dollar, subject to confirmation of the forecast, can receive an additional impetus for growth. Positive data will also give more credibility and confidence to Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, who will begin her speech today in the second half of the US trading session.
As you know, on Wednesday the Fed kept interest rates in the range of 0.75% - 1.0%. The Fed noted that despite the slowdown in US economic growth since the beginning of the year, annual inflation "is close to the target level of 2%," job growth is "strong," and the labor market situation continues to improve. Thus, short-term risks for the economic outlook, in the opinion of the leaders of the Fed, are "generally balanced." Although no new statements have been made about the balance, the Fed is still planning to continue a gradual rate hike.
So far, everything is in favor of the US dollar and against commodity prices, which are denominated in US dollars, as well as against commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar.
In recent days, there has been a sharp drop in commodity prices. On the Chinese Commodity Exchange, the price of iron ore fell by 8%, and nickel prices retreated to almost a 1-year low in London, copper prices in the US also fell sharply. But most striking is the sharp drop in the price of oil, which has declined by 13% since mid-April.
Speaking in Mexico City yesterday, the chairman of the Bank of Canada Poloz said that US trade policy is a "significant problem" in drawing up economic plans. Apparently, he also had in mind the recent decision by the US to introduce import duties on wood from Canada. "It's no surprise that when there is a threat of trade protectionism, companies do not want to invest in expansion," Poloz said. The risk of protectionism in the US "limits economic growth."
Today, along with the publication of data from the labor market in the United States at 12:30 (GMT) will be published data on the labor market in Canada for April. It is expected that unemployment remained at the same level of 6.7%, and the number of employed increased by 10 000 people. And at 14:00, the Ivey Business Activity Index (PMI), which is an important indicator of the Canadian market and economy, will be published. The figure above the value of 50 is considered a positive factor for CAD. The previous value of the indicator is 61.1, the forecast is 62.3.
In the conditions of a sharp fall in oil prices, it is not necessary to speak about the growth of quotations of the Canadian dollar, which has a correlation with the oil price of about 92%.
The dynamics of the pair USD / CAD today will depend wholly on the dynamics of the US dollar, which has recently strengthened significantly against commodity currencies.
It is not superfluous, perhaps, to recall the sharp increase in volatility during the American trading session, especially at 12:30 (GMT).

Support and resistance levels
Pushed back in the middle of last month from the support level 1.3225 (EMA200 on the daily chart at that time), the pair USD / CAD is growing rapidly in the upward short-term channel on the 4-hour chart. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the monthly, weekly, daily, 4-hour charts recommend long positions and signal a strong upward impulse.
An important resistance level 1.3680 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair's growth since the beginning of July 2014 and the level of 1.0650) is breached. The pair USD / CAD is growing positive dynamics.
There are all the prerequisites of a fundamental nature for the further growth of the US dollar against commodity currencies, including against the Canadian dollar.
The medium-term growth prospect opens up to the level of 1.4600 (highs of 2016 and the last global wave of pair growth since July 2014).
An alternative scenario for a decline in the medium term will only be relevant if the pair USD / CAD is returned to the zone below the support level 1.3300 (the current position of EMA200 on the daily chart).
Much in the dynamics of the pair USD / CAD in the medium term will depend, first of all, on the dynamics of the US dollar and oil prices, which are likely to continue to decline until the OPEC meeting on May 25, at which the issue of extending the agreement for the next half year On the reduction of oil production.

Support levels: 1.3680, 1.3590, 1.3510, 1.3300, 1.3225, 1.3100, 1.3010
Resistance levels: 1.3800, 1.3940, 1.4000

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 1.3795. Stop-Loss 1.3745. Take-Profit 1.3850, 1.3900, 1.3940, 1.04000
Sell Stop 1.3745. Stop-Loss 1.3795. Take-Profit 1.3680, 1.3590, 1.3510, 1.3300





*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Brent: the number of active drilling rigs in the United States has again risen
08/05/2017

Current dynamics
The general weakening of the US dollar, observed on Friday, helped the oil prices to adjust at the end of last week. The price of Brent oil after reaching a new local minimum during the Asian session of Friday near the level of 46.70 dollars per barrel could grow by the end of the American trading session to the level of 49.69. The price increase on Friday continued even after the data from the American oil service company Baker Hughes were published. The number of active oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week (by 6 units to 703 units).
The victory of Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential election helped to ease concerns about the prospects of the European economy. The investors' mood also improved the information that Saudi Arabia will support the extension of OPEC arrangements with the participation of Russia and other major oil-producing countries on the reduction of production.
Nevertheless, some investors still doubt that a reduction in production will lead to a rapid and significant reduction in world reserves.
The growth in the production of shale oil in the US significantly alleviates OPEC's efforts to create an artificial deficit and stabilize prices in the oil market. Moreover, the US is increasing its oil exports to Asia. Approximately 40% of US oil exports were sent to Asia in February. At the same time, US oil companies have significant reserve capacity.
Last month, the EIA raised its forecast for oil production this year and next year to 9.2 million barrels per day and 9.9 million barrels per day, respectively. Against the backdrop of the growth of active drilling rigs the last three months production in the US remains above 9 million barrels per day.
On Tuesday, a monthly report is expected from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) with a short-term forecast on the dynamics of oil production in the US. It is expected that EIA will again raise the forecast for oil production in the US, which could significantly worsen the mood of investors and increase the pressure on prices.
But the main current risks are connected, first of all, with the extension of OPEC agreements on oil production reduction. If the agreement on limiting production is not extended (the OPEC meeting will be held on May 25), the oil market may again rapidly return to the lows of 2016, when the barrel of Brent crude oil was just above $ 27.00.

Support and resistance levels
Since the middle of last month, the price for Brent crude oil has fallen sharply and has lost almost 15% to the current moment. Negative dynamics prevails. The price of Brent crude oil broke through the most important mid-term support levels of 52.45 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 51.70 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the uplink on the weekly chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% From June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00) and decreases in the descending channel on the 4-hour chart.
In case of repeated testing of the support level of 48.35 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart), the price reduction may resume.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the monthly, weekly, daily charts went to the side of sellers.
In the case of consolidation below 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), the upward trend in the price of Brent crude oil will be canceled.
An alternative scenario for growth is associated with a price return above the level of 52.45. So far, there has been a strong negative dynamics.
Support levels: 48.35, 48.00, 47.10, 46.20
Levels of resistance: 50.00, 50.70, 51.70, 52.45

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 48.90. Stop-Loss Section 50.10. Take-Profit 48.35, 48.00, 47.10, 46.20
Buy Stop 50.10. Stop-Loss 48.90. Take-Profit 50.70, 51.70, 52.45, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50





*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

USD/JPY: US government bond yield growth supports dollar
10/05/2017
Overview and dynamics
As the financial and geopolitical tensions in the world decrease (the elections in France, the election of a new president in South Korea, which prioritizes the establishment of relations with the northern neighbor), the monetary policy of the Fed is again on the forefront, aimed at its gradual tightening.
Increase in the propensity of investors to risk is caused by the sale of assets-shelters, such as gold, yen, as well as US government bonds. On Tuesday, the yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to the highest level in more than a month. The index of the dollar WSJ (reflecting the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies) increased by 0.3%, to 90.52.
Investors again focus their attention on the high probability of an interest rate increase in the US already in June. The probability of such an increase, according to the CME Group, is approximately 88%.
As the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan stated yesterday, the basic scenario of the Fed envisages three higher interest rates this year. According to Kaplan, raising rates should continue "gradually and patiently." The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Loretta Mester, also said yesterday that the Fed should not lag behind the schedule for raising interest rates.
With an increase in interest rates, the US dollar becomes more attractive to investors seeking profitability. Now, because of the rapid increase in rates and the possible reduction in the Fed's balance among investors, there is concern that this year there may be a shortage of the US currency.
Concern over Trump's policy and the presidential elections in France is gradually dying out, and strong US macroeconomic data is helping the US dollar recover in the foreign exchange market.
After positive data from the US labor market published on Friday, it is worth paying attention to important data on retail sales and inflation in the US, which are published this Friday at 12:30 (GMT). These data will help the Fed better understand the state of the country's economy. A moderate increase in inflation is expected in April, which will positively affect the US dollar.
Against the backdrop of the strengthening of the "hawkish" position of the Fed on the monetary policy in the US, other major world central banks demonstrate a tendency to pursue a soft monetary policy. In late April, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged. Despite the fact that, according to the bank, the outlook for the economy has improved, inflation still lags behind the forecasts. The bank lowered the inflation forecast for this fiscal year to 1.4% against 1.5% earlier. The forecast for the next financial year remained unchanged at 1.7%.
The Board of the Bank of Japan voted for the preservation of the target level of 10-year government bonds at a zero mark, for maintaining the key rate at the level of -0.1%, and confirmed that the bank will continue to purchase government bonds worth 80 trillion yen per year. The Bank of Japan filed a clear signal that the possibility of raising rates was not yet being considered and that he would continue to pursue an extra soft monetary policy.
Most economists believe that the Bank of Japan will not take any action during the entire fiscal year 2017. The manager of the Bank of Japan Kuroda said today that the weak yen is a plus for capital spending, employment in Japan.
Thus, there is a clear divergence in the direction of the monetary policies of the Bank of Japan and the Fed, which will be the main driver of the pair USD / JPY for the near future.

Technical analysis
At the beginning of the month, the pair USD / JPY pushed back from the support level of 111.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart), and having broken through an important resistance level of 113.00 (Fibonacci level of 50% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and the level of 99.90, as well as the upper limit of the downward channel on Day chart), develops an upward trend.
On the weekly chart, a new ascending channel was formed, with the upper boundary passing near the level of 125.65 (highs of June 2015). If the growth continues, the level of 125.65 will be a long-term target for the pair USD / JPY. Medium-term goals within this upward channel are 116.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 118.60 (December and January highs), 121.30 (February and November highs).
The alternative scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level 113.00 and the return of the pair USD / JPY in the downward channel on the daily chart. The objectives of the decline are levels 111.70 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 111.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart). In case of breakdown of the support level 110.10 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), the negative dynamics of the pair USD / JPY will increase. The closest targets in this case will be the levels of 108.25 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and April lows), 106.50 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6%), the breakdown of which will finally return the pair USD / JPY in a downtrend.
So far, the positive dynamics of the pair USD / JPY is dominating. Preferred are the long positions.
Support levels: 113.00, 112.60, 111.70, 111.15, 110.90, 110.10, 109.00, 108.25, 106.50
Resistance levels: 114.00, 115.00, 116.00

Trading recommendations
Buy Stop 114.35. Stop Loss 113.60. Take-Profit 115.00, 116.00, 117.00, 118.60
Sell Stop 113.60. Stop Loss 114.35. Take-Profit 113.00, 112.60, 111.70, 111.15, 110.90, 110.10, 109.00, 108.25, 106.50





*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

USD/CAD: amid rising oil prices
11/05/2017

Current dynamics
According to data provided yesterday by the US Department of Energy, commercial oil reserves in the US fell by 5.247 million barrels in the week of April 29-May 5. Oil reserves in the US declined for the fifth week in a row, and this is the largest weekly decline this year. The forecast assumed a drop in inventories of 1.786 million barrels. The prices for oil in response to this message reacted with a sharp increase.
Commodity currencies, and above all, the Canadian dollar, have been supported by rising oil prices. The pair USD / CAD lost 40 points at the time of publication of this data, and the end of yesterday's trading day was already near the mark of 1.3650, which is almost 0.5% lower than the level of yesterday's trading day opening. At the beginning of today's trading day, the pair USD / CAD again rose, largely recouping yesterday's decline.
According to analysts of the oil market, the surplus of oil reserves in the world is still high. As expected, OPEC should extend or agree on a stronger production cut on May 25. If such an agreement is reached, then oil prices, and together with them, commodity currencies (including the Canadian dollar) will receive strong support. The expected OPEC agreement on the extension of agreements to reduce oil production is a strong "bearish" factor for the pair USD / CAD. The expected increase in the June Fed meeting (June 13-14) of the interest rate in the US is a strong “bullish” factor for the pair USD / CAD. As stated yesterday by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Eric Rosengren, "three increases in rates are justified during the current year, provided that the economy will grow in line with the forecasts".
Thus, the pair USD / CAD is on a kind of "balance of weights", and much will depend both on the decisions of the Fed and OPEC, as well as on accompanying statements. To determine the direction of further movement, the pair needs fundamental drivers.
From the news for today we are waiting for data from the USA and Canada. At 12:30 (GMT) will be presented:
• US data - Producer Price Index (PPI), which estimates the average change in wholesale prices determined by manufacturers at all stages of manufacturing. A high result strengthens the US dollar, low - weakens. Forecast: in April the index rose to 0.2% (against -0.1% in March); A weekly report from the US Department of Labor, containing data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The result above the expected indicates a weak labor market, which has a negative impact on the US dollar. The forecast is expected to increase to 245,000 versus 238,000 for the previous period, which should negatively affect the dollar;
• data for Canada - the price index for new housing for March. The high value of the indicator is a positive factor for CAD, and a low value is negative. Forecast: prices in March rose by 0.2%. At 14:30 (GMT) the quarterly report from the Bank of Canada is published, containing information on the state of the Canadian economy and the bank's policy.
Thus, during the publication of data (12:30 and 14:30 GMT), volatility in the USD / CAD pair is expected to grow.

Support and resistance levels
Since the beginning of the month, the pair USD / CAD is trading, basically, in the range between the levels 1.3750, 1.3650. Through the 1.3680 mark, at which the pair USD / CAD is trading in the middle of today's European session, the Fibonacci level is 23.6% (the downward correction for the pair's growth since early July 2014 and the 1.0650 mark) and EMA200 on the 1-hour chart.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts were deployed to short positions.
In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 1.3680, the downside target will be support levels 1.3650, 1.3590 (November highs, December highs).
Nevertheless, there are all the prerequisites of a fundamental nature for the further growth of the US dollar against commodity currencies, including against the Canadian dollar.
The pair USD / CAD remains significantly above the key support level 1.3300 (EMA200 on the daily chart) in the uplink on the daily chart, the upper limit of which is near the 1.3900 level.
Much in the dynamics of the pair USD / CAD in the medium term will depend, first of all, on the dynamics of the US dollar and oil prices.
Support levels: 1.3680, 1.3650, 1.3590, 1.3510, 1.3300
Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3900, 1.3940, 1.4000

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 1.3715. Stop-Loss 1.3670. Take-Profit 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3850, 1.3900, 1.3940
Sell Stop 1.3670. Stop-Loss 1.3715. Take-Profit 1.3590, 1.3510, 1.3300




*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Brent: 2 key support levels 51.70, 50.70
12/05/2017

Current dynamics
After on Wednesday the US Energy Ministry presented data on commercial oil and petroleum products in the US for the previous week, oil prices rose sharply. Reserves in the US, contrary to forecasts, fell by 5.247 million barrels. This was the largest weekly decline this year. And the oil reserves in the US are declining for the fifth consecutive week.
Yesterday, the price of Brent oil on the positive received an attempt to break through the resistance level at 50.70 (the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark). However, the attempt failed, and Brent crude oil traded today in a narrow range near the mark of 50.70 dollars per barrel.
The optimism of the participants in the oil market also increased after the OPEC report, which showed that members of the cartel adhere to the established quotas. As expected, OPEC should extend or agree on a stronger production cut on May 25. If such an agreement is reached, oil prices will receive strong support. It seems that oil futures will finish the week with a rise of more than 3%, if the overall positive picture again does not spoil the report from the American oil service company Baker Hughes, which will be published today closer to the end of the US trading session (18:00 GMT). The number of active oil drilling rigs in the US earlier rose again (by 6 units to 703 units). The next growth will negatively affect oil prices.
According to analysts of the oil market, the surplus of oil reserves in the world is still high. OPEC raised its forecast for growth in oil production outside the cartel in 2017 to 950,000 barrels per day. Accelerating production in the US, Brazil, Canada, as well as Nigeria and Libya, which are part of OPEC, largely alleviates OPEC's efforts to create an artificial deficit in the oil market and stabilize oil prices.
At the same time, OPEC understands that oil producers in the above countries take the market share from the cartel, which is narrowing due to a decrease in oil production, which occurs within the framework of the OPEC agreement.
If the agreement on limiting production is not extended (the OPEC meeting will be held on May 25), the oil market may again rapidly return to the lows of 2016, when the barrel of Brent crude oil was just above $ 27.00.
From the news for today, also waiting for data on inflation in the US. At 12:30 (GMT) will be published data on retail sales and consumer price indices for April, which are one of the main inflation indicators in the US. A high result will strengthen the US dollar, and vice versa, a low result will weaken the USD. The forecast: + 0.6% (against -0.2% in March) and + 0.3% (against -0.3% in March), respectively. Evidence of accelerating inflation will increase the likelihood of an increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve System.
In this case, the attractiveness of the dollar for investors will grow, while prices for oil and other commodities, denominated in US dollars, will fall.

Support and resistance levels
Since the middle of last month, the price of Brent crude oil has fallen sharply and has lost almost 12% to the current moment. The negative dynamics prevails while the price is below the levels 51.70 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark).
On the daily chart, a downward channel formed, the lower boundary of which passes near the support level of 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level).
In the event of a breakout of the level of 50.70, the price that is currently at this level will rush down to levels 48.35, 47.10, 46.20. In the case of consolidation below 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), the upward trend in the price of Brent crude oil will be canceled.
An alternative scenario for growth is associated with a return of the price above the level of 52.45 (EMA144 on the daily chart). So far, negative dynamics prevails.
Support levels: 50.70, 48.35, 47.00, 46.20
Resistance levels: 51.70, 52.45

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 50.50. Stop-Loss 51.25. Take-Profit 50.00, 48.35, 48.00, 47.10, 46.20
Buy Stop 51.25. Stop-Loss 50.50. Take-Profit 51.70, 52.45, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50





*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

FTSE100: Positive dynamics of the index persists
15/05/2017

Current dynamics
After in April British Prime Minister Theresa May unexpectedly announced early parliamentary elections the British stock market collapsed. The index of the London stock exchange FTSE100 has lost almost 2.9%. It was followed by all European major stock indexes. Early general elections in the UK would allow Prime Minister Theresa May to consolidate the dominant position of the Conservative Party in parliament on the eve of the June elections in order to negotiate with the EU on more favorable conditions for Brexit.
Despite the collapse in April, the FTSE100 index was able not only to recover completely, but to exceed the annual absolute maximum recorded in March near the 7447.0 mark.
At the beginning of today's European session, the FTSE100 index is declining; however, it is still in positive territory, trading near the 7444.0 mark with a rise after more than 1200 points (+ 19%) in the referendum on Brexit at the end of June.
The focus of traders will be today the speech of British Prime Minister Theresa May, which will begin at 19:00 (GMT). It is necessary to take into account the possibility of a sharp increase in volatility during the speech of Theresa May.
It is also worthwhile to be careful when opening trading positions tomorrow, when at 08:30 (GMT) inflation data are published in the UK for April. As expected, annual inflation accelerated to 2.6% from 2.3% in the previous month. The sharp increase in inflation in the country, gives grounds to assume that the Bank of England can again return to consideration of the question of raising the interest rate in the UK. And this is a negative factor for the British stock market.
Nevertheless, weak wage growth rates in the UK, which are lagging behind the rate of inflation in the country, can cause the British to cut their spending, which in turn can cause a slowdown in the national economy.
For this reason, the Bank of England will refrain from tightening monetary policy in the country, which is a positive factor for the British stock market. If the inflation data published in the UK tomorrow is below the forecast (+ 0.4% in April and + 2.6% in annual terms), the FTSE100 index will respond with growth.

Support and resistance levels
By mid-March, the FTSE100 index rose to its maximum near the 7447.0 level. Over the past two months, the FTSE100 index has fallen, adjusting to the support level of 7090.0. Nevertheless, recovering from a sharp fall after the statement of Theresa May about early parliamentary elections, the FTSE100 index is again rising in the uplink on the weekly chart.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts recommend long positions.
While the FTSE100 index is above the short-term support level of 7295.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), positive dynamics remain.
In the event of a breakdown of this level, there may be risks of reducing the FTSE100 index to support levels of 7090.0 (February lows, October highs), 7050.0 (EMA200 and the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart).
Breakdown of the level of 7050.0 and further decline will mean a reversal and the end of the upward trend of the FTSE100 index.
Nevertheless, the fundamental background creates the prerequisites for further growth of the index.
While the FTSE100 index is above 7295.0, long positions are more preferable.
The Bank of England maintains an extra soft monetary policy, which is a strong positive factor for the British stock market.
Support levels: 7386.0, 7295.0, 7200.0, 7090.0, 7050.0
Resistance levels: 7450.0, 7500.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 7365.0. Stop-Loss 7460.0. Take-Profit 7350.0, 7295.0, 7200.0, 7100.0, 7050.0
Buy Stop 7460.0. Stop-Loss 7365.0. Take-Profit 7500.0, 7520.0, 7550.0




*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics