Tifia Daily Market Analytics

AUD/USD: Current Dynamics
01/07/2019
As part of the G20 summit held in Osaka last Sunday, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to suspend a trade war between these countries. The United States will indefinitely postpone the introduction of duties on Chinese goods worth about $ 300 billion, while China promised to start buying large amounts of agricultural products in the United States.
Investors are inspired by the outcome of the G20 summit in Osaka, which ended last weekend, and global stock indices once again rushed up.
The dollar also rose from the opening of today's trading day, and the AUD / USD pair has dropped sharply, despite the very successful start of the trading day.
According to Caixin, in June, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in China fell to 49.4 from 50.2 in May. The indicator for the first time in four months was below the threshold of 50.0, separating the growth of activity from its decline.
The official PMI for the manufacturing sector of China, published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Sunday, remained unchanged in June, reaching 49.4, which is also below the threshold of 50.0.
Negative macro statistics from China put pressure on New Zealand and Australian dollars.
On Tuesday, the RB of Australia will decide on the interest rate. Early last month, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key interest rate by 25 bps. to 1.25%, for the first time since August 2016, and its head, Philip Lowe, said that "there is reason to expect a lower key rate".
As expected, on Tuesday, the RBA will again lower its interest rate by 0.25% to 1.00%. This is a strong negative fundamental factor for AUD.
Publication of the RBA decision on rates is scheduled for Tuesday (04:30 GMT), and at 09:30 GMT, the speech of the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, will begin. A sharp increase in volatility is expected in the AUD / USD.
The different directions of the monetary policies of the RBA and the Fed is a strong fundamental factor for reducing AUD / USD.
The medium-term goal of the decline is located at around 0.6770 (2019 lows). Below the key resistance levels of 0.7060 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7110 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable.
Support Levels: 0.6969, 0.6957, 0.6910, 0.6865, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Resistance Levels: 0.7000, 0.7060, 0.7110

Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7040. Take-Profit 0.6969, 0.6957, 0.6910, 0.6865, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Buy Stop 0.7040. Stop Loss 0.6990. Take-Profit 0.7060, 0.7110



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NZD/USD: Trading Recommendations
02/07/2019
Business confidence in New Zealand continues to fall. This was announced on Tuesday by the New Zealand Economic Research Institute (NZIER). The overall business attitude indicator (NZIER business confidence index) fell in Q2 from -29% to -34%, its lowest level in 10 years.
After the publication of this data, the New Zealand dollar fell, remaining under pressure from Monday after the G20 summit ended last weekend and after the publication of weak economic data from China on Monday.
China is the largest trade and economic partner of New Zealand, buying in this country a significant amount of agricultural production.
At the end of last month, the RBNZ retained the rate at 1.50%, having reduced it earlier in May by 0.25%, which was the first decrease in the key interest rate of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand since 2016. At the same time, the bank lowered its forecast for the rate to 1.4% in the short term.
On Tuesday, we are waiting for the publication (in the period after 13:45 GMT) of the data with the results of the dairy auction. Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of -3.8%. The next drop in world prices for dairy products (forecast: -3.6%) will put pressure on the New Zealand dollar.
Below the key resistance level of 0.6715 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) short positions are preferable; long-term bearish trend started from 0.8820 in July 2014, prevails. A break of the short-term support level of 0.6653 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will signal a resumption of sales with targets at the support levels of 0.6490 (2019 lows), 0.6430 (2018 lows), 0.6260 (Fibonacci 0% level and minimums of the global decline wave of the pair with level 0.8820, which began in July 2014).
Support Levels: 0.6653, 0.6610, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Resistance Levels: 0.6715, 0.6726, 0.6800, 0.6865, 0.6920

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 0.6645. Stop Loss 0.6690. Take-Profit 0.6610, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Buy Stop 0.6690. Stop Loss 0.6645. Take-Profit 0.6715, 0.6800, 0.6865, 0.6920


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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
03/07/2019
The Eurodollar rose at the beginning of the European session on Wednesday after the Markit Economics agency published data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors of the Eurozone. PMI indices rose in June (to 52.2 and 53.6, respectively, against 51.8 and 52.9 in May).
However, the euro is under pressure after last Monday at the White House announced the possibility of imposing additional duties on goods from Europe worth $ 4 billion a year, depending on the outcome of the proceedings at the WTO to subsidize Airbus.
Investors are also evaluating the decision of the European Commission to nominate Christine Lagarde to head the ECB instead of Mario Draghi, whose term in office ends on October 31. Now, many economists have become even more confident that the bank will ease monetary policy in the coming months. In their opinion, the European Central Bank will lower its key interest rate by 10 basis points in September to -0.50%, and from November resume the program of quantitative easing or net asset purchases in the amount of 30 billion euros per month.
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On Wednesday, the EUR / USD pair is trading in a narrow range, a breakthrough from which can determine its further dynamics.
The upper limit of the range passes through the mark 1.1323 (resistance level ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), the lower limit - through the mark 1.1267 (the support level ЕМА50 on the daily chart). The breakthrough of the support level of 1.1267 will open EUR / USD for a deeper decline with targets located at support levels of 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (year lows).
In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.1410, EUR / USD will head towards the resistance level of 1.1600 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
In general, below the key resistance level of 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) the global bearish trend prevails. Short positions are preferred.
We are waiting for the publication of data on business activity in the US services sector for June (13:15 and 14:00 (GMT)). As expected, the business activity index (ISM) of the services sector in the US economy will be lower (55.9 against 56.9 in May). This is a high figure, although its relative decline may cause a short-term weakening of the dollar.
Support Levels: 1.1285, 1.1277, 1.1267, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1323, 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1260. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1330. Stop Loss 1.1260. Take-Profit 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600


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XAU/USD: Current Dynamics
04/07/2019
At the beginning of the European session on Thursday, the XAU / USD is trading near the mark of 1415.00 dollars per ounce, which is 25 dollars less than the annual maximum of 1440.00 reached at the end of last month. On Wednesday, the XAU / USD pair attempted to update this almost 6-year high on expectations that the Fed could lower its interest rate in July (July 30 - 31).
On the eve of the US President Trump again hinted at the need for a cheaper dollar. He wrote in his Twitter feed that “China and Europe are playing a big game, manipulating currencies, and pumping money into their system to compete with the United States. We must respond accordingly or stay in the cold, who sit and politely watch other countries play their games, as they have been doing for many years”.
On Thursday, the XAU / USD again decreases slightly, and trading volumes are falling. In the US today is the day off on the occasion of the celebration of Independence Day.
Now investors are focused on the publication on Friday (12:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market.
On Wednesday, less optimistic macro data from the USA was published. Thus, the number of jobs in the US private sector in June increased by only 102,000, while economists expected it to increase by 135,000.
Orders for industrial goods in the United States in May decreased by 0.7% compared with the previous month and amounted to 493.57 billion US dollars. This was also reported Wednesday by the US Department of Commerce.
If data from the US labor market also turns out to be weak, then this will increase the likelihood that the Fed will soon reduce the interest rate, which is a strong negative factor for the dollar and a positive one for gold.
As a rule, when the Fed raises the interest rate, the price of gold decreases because it does not bring investment income, and the cost of its acquisition and storage increases.
In the opposite situation, i.e. with the easing of the monetary policy of the Fed and the growing uncertainty in the financial markets, as well as political or trade conflicts, the demand for gold and its price increase, which we observe in the current situation.
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Thus, in spite of the fact that gold is trading at multi-month highs, it’s too early to talk about stopping price growth and demand for it.
The price has broken the important resistance level of 1380.00 last month (Fibonacci 38.2% level of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the level of 1920.00). The breakdown of the resistance level of 1485.00 (50% Fibonacci level) will confirm the completion of the corrective decline and the resumption of price growth.
Predominantly strong positive momentum, pushing XAU / USD to new annual highs.
An alternative scenario implies a resumption of dollar growth and a decline in XAU / USD to a key support level of 1298.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Break of the key support level of 1298.00 will resume the bearish trend, which began in 2012 near the mark of 1795.00. Further targets for the decline are at the support levels of 1200.00, 1185.00, 1160.00 (the minimum of 2018).
Support Levels: 1402.00, 1380.00, 1357.00, 1346.00, 1323.00, 1310.00, 1298.00, 1278.00, 1268.00, 1253.00
Resistance Levels: 1424.00, 1440.00, 1485.00

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1398.00. Stop-Loss 1424.00. Take-Profit 1380.00, 1357.00, 1346.00, 1323.00, 1310.00, 1298.00
Buy Stop 1424.00. Stop Loss 1398.00. Take-Profit 1440.00, 1485.00


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EUR/USD: on the eve of the NFP publication
05/07/2019
On Friday, the trades are "on the side" of the dollar, while investors are waiting for publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market. In June, unemployment is expected to remain at the level of 3.6%, while the number of jobs outside the US agricultural sector increased by 165,000, after +75,000 in May.
This is strong data that will support the dollar with the confirmation of the forecast and will force the Fed to wait a little with the rate decrease.
In the American economy, things are not so bad in comparison with other economies, and American consumers continue to actively spend money.
If the growth of new jobs again turns out to be less than 100,000, and unemployment rises, then the markets will take this as a signal to the Fed in the direction of lowering the rate, and by 50 basis points at once. In this case, the pressure on the dollar will resume with a new force.
Meanwhile, the Eurodollar has been declining since the opening of today's trading day. The EUR / USD pair is trading at the beginning of the European session, near the 1.1260 mark, 23 points lower than the opening price of today's trading day. Weak macro statistics, received at the beginning of the European session from Germany, had a negative impact on the euro. In May, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany decreased by 2.2% compared with April, and compared with the same period of the previous year - even more, by 8.6%. The German economy is the locomotive of the entire European economy, and its slowdown will increase the pressure on the ECB towards the adoption of additional incentive measures in the coming months.
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EUR / USD broke through two strong support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1277 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) and continues to decline. The breakthrough of the support level of 1.1265 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) will provoke a further decline of EUR / USD to the targets located at the support levels of 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (minimums of the year).
Below resistance levels 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1410 (monthly maximum)
short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.1265, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1310, 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1255. Stop Loss 1.1295. Take-Profit 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1295. Stop-Loss 1.1255. Take-Profit 1.1310, 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600



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USD/CAD: Current Dynamics
08/07/2019
Unexpectedly strong report on the US labor market for June reduced the likelihood of aggressive easing of the Fed's monetary policy. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of new jobs outside of agriculture in the country in June amounted to +224,000 (against +72,000 in May and the forecast of +165,000 jobs).
Prior to the publication of the report, investors took into account the lowering of the rate at the July Fed meeting by 50 basis points at once. Now investors take into account the 98% probability of lowering interest rates by 0.25% at the Fed meeting on July 30 - 31, according to the CME Group.
This week, investors will follow the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at congressional hearings. If he points out that the Fed will adhere to a softer policy by the end of the year, the dollar will again come under pressure.
On Wednesday (14:00 GMT), the Bank of Canada will decide on the interest rate. It is widely expected that the Bank of Canada at this meeting will leave rates unchanged (at 1.75%).
This is a positive factor for the Canadian currency against the background of the fact that other major central banks are easing their monetary policy.
Also, the Canadian dollar will receive support from the expected increase in oil prices after last week OPEC announced the extension of the transaction to restrict production for 9 months.
Thus, most likely, the pair USD / CAD will retain a tendency to decline.
Last month, USD / CAD broke through the key support level of 1.3260 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and continues to decline in the downward channel on the daily chart.
Downward trend prevails. The targets for the decline are the support levels of 1.3015, 1.2850 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 1.2740 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700).
Consideration of long positions can be returned after the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.3109 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) with the goal at the resistance level of 1.3260. More distant growth targets after the breakdown level of 1.3260 are at resistance levels of 1.3520 (2019 highs), 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3015, 1.2850, 1.2740
Resistance Levels: 1.3109, 1.3260, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.3055. Stop Loss 1.3115. Take-Profit 1.3045, 1.3015, 1.2850, 1.2740
Buy Stop 1.3115. Stop Loss 1.3055. Take-Profit 1.3200, 1.3260, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790


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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
09/07/2019
The dollar continues to strengthen after the publication on Friday of a strong report on the US labor market, which eased the pressure on the Federal Reserve System in the need to set lower interest rates. Last Friday, the EUR / USD pair broke through strong support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900 level that started in May 2014), 1.1270 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart) and continued to decline. On Tuesday at the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.1200 mark, remaining under pressure from the strengthening dollar.
According to the results of a poll conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday, inflation expectations for the year and three years ahead in June reached 2.7% versus 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively in May.
The rise in inflation expectations also eases the pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates. Now market participants will closely follow the speeches of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress on the topic of economics and monetary policy.
If he shows a tendency toward a softer monetary policy, then the dollar may react by lowering. And, conversely, Powell’s tough position will cause a further strengthening of the dollar and increase the credibility of the Fed, especially amid Trump’s growing criticism of the Fed.
Powell's speeches are scheduled for Tuesday at 12:45 (GMT) and Wednesday at 14:00.
At the same time, recent comments by the leaders of the European Central Bank point to an early easing of monetary policy. It is possible that the ECB in July will hint at the possibility of lowering interest rates. This may happen in September with the start of a new bond purchase program worth 630 billion euros.
In general, the Eurodollar global bearish trend prevails. Any growth will be limited by resistance levels of 1.1350, 1.1410 (monthly maximum). Below the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), short positions with targets located at the support levels of 1.1180 (June lows) and 1.1125 (Lows of the year) are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1240. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1240. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410



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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
10/07/2019
Today is full of important economic events.
At 14:00 (GMT) the decision of the Bank of Canada on the interest rate will be published, which is expected to remain at the same level of 1.75%.
At 18:00 (GMT) scheduled publication of the minutes of the June meeting of the Committee on operations on the Fed open market.
However, the focus of investors will be on Powell’s presentation to the US Congress, which will begin at 14:00.
After the release of strong data on the labor market last Friday, many economists believe that the Fed can now postpone the decision on the need for additional measures. If Powell signals about the probability of lowering interest rates by 0.5% already on July 31, the dollar may sharply decline, and EUR / USD will fly above 1.1300, in the direction of recent highs near the 1.1410 mark.
If he hints that the Fed is not going to lower interest rates before September, then EUR / USD will resume the decline and head towards annual lows near the 1.1125 mark.
Powell most likely favors a 25 basis point decrease in interest rates in July. This decision is expected and already included in the price. After some strengthening, EUR / USD is likely to decline to a zone below the support level of 1.1200.
However, when trading today, one should take into account a sharp increase in volatility during his speech. In this situation, technical analysis fades into the background.
However, below the resistance levels of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1410 (June highs), short positions are preferable.
In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). EUR / USD growth above this level will be limited by resistance levels of 1.1410 (monthly maximum), 1.1445 (from a technical point of view).
Support Levels: 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1245. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1245. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410


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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
07/11/2019
Shortly after the start of the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the Congress on Wednesday, the dollar fell sharply. Powell’s comments reinforced market participants ’confidence that the Fed would cut interest rates already at the July meeting, although Powell declined to directly answer the question of such a scenario. He stressed that the prospects for the US economy in recent weeks have not improved, noting that the sustainability of inflation weakness "is an argument in favor of a more stimulating monetary policy".
EUR / USD rose on Wednesday by 43 points, closely approaching the resistance level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Today Eurodollar growth continued. Nevertheless, despite the growth after yesterday's Powell performance, below the resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains. The signal for sales will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
In the alternative scenario, EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) with intermediate targets at resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to a fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1305 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart). A rise above resistance level 1.1350 is unlikely. World central banks are alarmed by threats to economic growth from tensions in trade relations. The ECB, like several central banks in other countries, is also leaning towards policy easing, although it has less room for more aggressive easing.
Powell’s second appearance is scheduled for today (14:00 GMT). The trigger for reducing the Eurodollar today can be the publication at 11:30 (GMT) of the minutes from the June meeting of the ECB. Also from the news today we should pay attention to the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of a whole block of important macro statistics from the United States, among which are consumer price indices. Their growth is expected in June by + 0.2% (against + 0.1% in May). If the data is confirmed or will be better than the forecast, the dollar can partially compensate for yesterday's losses and strengthen, including against the euro.
Support Levels: 1.1260, 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1250. Stop Loss 1.1285. Take-Profit 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1285. Stop Loss 1.1250. Take-Profit 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445



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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
12/07/2019
Despite the rise during the Asian session, EUR / USD declines again at the beginning of the European session on Friday. The minutes of the June meeting of the European Central Bank published on Thursday showed that, due to low inflation, the Central Bank management is considering additional ways to stimulate the Eurozone economy. Judging by the protocols, the leadership of the Central Bank is preparing to reduce the key interest rate or restart the bond redemption program by 2.6 trillion euros.
At the same time, the dollar also remains under pressure after the speeches of Fed Chairman Powell in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
He hinted that the leadership of the Fed is mostly inclined to ease monetary policy. Powell reiterated that the Fed intends to "act in an appropriate manner to support economic growth".
Thus, the EUR / USD pair is in the grip of expectations of easing in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB. At the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.1260 mark.
Long-term negative dynamics remains below the resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
A signal for sales with targets located at support levels of 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (minimums of a year) will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on a 1-hour chart).
In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) with an intermediate goal at resistance 1.1305 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
A more aggressive scenario involves the return of EUR / USD to the zone of resistance levels
1.1410 (monthly maximum), 1.1445.
In the current situation and below the resistance level of 1.1285, short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.1260, 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1245. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1280. Stop Loss 1.1245. Take-Profit 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com