-
EUR/USD: Current dynamics
03/19/2019
The US dollar continues to decline on Tuesday. Investors expect that at a meeting on Wednesday, the Fed will demonstrate a propensity for a soft monetary policy. The decision on the Fed's interest rate will be published on Wednesday at 18:00 (GMT), and a press conference will begin at 18:30, at which Fed Chairman Jerome Powell can clarify what the central bank is thinking about the economy and the prospects for monetary policy.
In recent weeks, Fed officials have made it clear that they are not in a hurry to change rates until the situation with the US economy is clear.
On Tuesday, futures for the DXY dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, is trading near 95.83, down 76 points from the closing price last Friday.
Some market participants are betting that the Fed will not raise the rate until the end of the year and may even lower it if the situation in the economy and the US labor market deteriorates. This is a negative factor for the dollar. Expectations that rates do not rise usually put pressure on the dollar, making it less attractive to investors.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
On Tuesday, the EUR / USD is trying to develop an upward trend above the resistance level of 1.1332 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
The top line of the descending channel on the daily chart also passes through the mark 1.1332, from which the release and return inside this channel is likely.
Downward dynamics prevail. The breakdown of the support level of 1.1313 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of Eurodollar sales.
In the event of a breakdown of support levels of 1.1300, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), EUR / USD will head towards targets at support levels of 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000.
The long-term bearish trend, which began in May 2014 near the 1.3870 mark, remains.
Short positions are preferred.
Long positions will become relevant after EUR / USD is fixed in the zone above the local resistance level of 1.1350.
Support Levels: 1.1332, 1.1313, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480
Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1330. Stop-Loss 1.1365. Take-Profit 1.1313, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1365. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480
https://i.postimg.cc/cL67wn9t/190319-DXY.png
https://i.postimg.cc/BbBWTyvp/190319-EU-D.png
https://i.postimg.cc/3NT5D73W/190319-EU-H4.png
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
-
EUR/USD: Fed meeting
03/20/2019
The dollar retains mainly the position before the publication at 18:00 (GMT) of the decision on the interest rate of the Fed. On Wednesday, futures for the dollar index DXY, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, is trading near 95.93, down 66 points from the closing price last Friday, but up 10 points from the closing price on Tuesday.
Market participants do not expect changes in monetary policy at this Fed meeting, which will end on Wednesday with the publication of a rate decision and a press conference. Its beginning is scheduled for 18:30 (GMT).
Probably, the Fed will again declare patience, as well as lower forecasts for interest rates and US economic growth. It is possible that the leaders of the Fed will declare that the key rate has reached its peak. To restore funding for the US economy from abroad, the dollar must weaken.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump also repeatedly criticized the Fed’s monetary policy against the backdrop of low inflation in the country.
Nevertheless, the demand for the dollar may remain in the medium and long term against the backdrop of international trade wars, regardless of the actions of the Fed. The US economy still looks more stable than other major global economies.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
On Wednesday, the EUR / USD is trying to develop an upward trend above the support level of 1.1332 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Below this level, downward dynamics prevail. The breakdown of the support level of 1.1313 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal to resume sales.
The targets for the decline after the breakdown of the support level of 1.1285 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900 that began in May 2014) will be the support levels of 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000.
The long-term bearish trend, which began in May 2014 near the 1.3870 mark, remains.
Short positions are preferred.
Long positions will become relevant after EUR / USD is fixed in the zone above the local resistance level of 1.1350.
Support Levels: 1.1332, 1.1313, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480
Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1330. Stop-Loss 1.1365. Take-Profit 1.1313, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1365. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480
https://i.postimg.cc/QNT0bVQB/200319-DXY.png
https://i.postimg.cc/nLdTrDvz/200319-EU-D.png
https://i.postimg.cc/26VGZSwx/200319-EU-H4.png
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
-
GBP/USD: anxiety is growing in the markets
03/21/2019
On Thursday, the dollar is rising, recovering from a strong fall on Wednesday. DXY dollar index futures at the beginning of the American session on Thursday traded near the level of 95.67, 32 points higher than the opening price of today.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England and the National Bank of Switzerland also retained their monetary policy unchanged. The decision of the SNB was published on Thursday at 08:30 GMT, and of the Bank of England at 12:00. The Swiss National Bank left the deposit rate at -0.75%, where it has been located since January 2015. It also left a three-month LIBOR rate in the range from -1.25% to -0.25%.
It is worth paying attention to the statement of the SNB, made by it after the meeting. The statement says that this decision and the decline in economic forecasts "is mainly due to the deterioration of the prospects for economic growth and inflation abroad, as well as the associated decrease in expectations regarding the interest rates of key economic regions".
The Bank of England also predictably retained its monetary policy unchanged. The decision was made by all 9 votes of members of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The bank’s statement says that “the outlook for the economy depends on how the UK leaves the EU”.
The pound almost did not respond to the decision of the Bank of England.
At the same time, anxiety is growing in the markets. Usually, the decision of the central bank of the United States, similar to the one adopted on Wednesday, would provoke growth in the stock markets, but this time the indices rose briefly and fell again. The yield on US government bonds reached 2.52%, the lowest level in a year, and the disappearing difference between long-term and short-term bonds indicates an increased likelihood of recession.
And yet, the demand for the dollar may remain in the situation of international trade wars and a slowdown in the global economy, regardless of the actions of the Fed. The US economy looks more stable than other major global economies.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
At the same time, the negative dynamics in the GBP / USD pair is growing due to renewed uncertainty about Brexit.
In case of breakdown of the support level of 1.3050 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the targets for further reduction will be the support levels of 1.2970, 1.2800, 1.2660, 1.2600.
In the alternative scenario, and after returning to the zone above the resistance level of 1.3210 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the decline of GBP / USD in the wave that started in July 2014 near 1.7200), the GBP / USD growth will resume with targets at the resistance levels of 1.3400 ( the upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 1.3660 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Short positions in the current situation looks preferable.
Support Levels: 1.3112, 1.3050, 1.2970, 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600
Resistance Levels: 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3370, 1.3400, 1.3660
Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3090. Stop Loss 1.3190. Take-Profit 1.3050, 1.2970, 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2590, 1.2480
Buy Stop 1.3190. Stop Loss 1.3090. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3370, 1.3400, 1.3660
https://i.postimg.cc/3RGxmDw3/210319-DXY.png
https://i.postimg.cc/MZcTJN0h/210319-GU-D.png
https://i.postimg.cc/XNTvjLQX/210319-GU-H4.png
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
-
USD/CHF: Swiss National Bank did not change monetary policy
03/22/2019
Current dynamics
On Thursday, a regular meeting of the Swiss National Bank took place, at which the bank maintained its monetary policy unchanged. The Swiss National Bank left the deposit rate at -0.75%, where it has been located since January 2015. It also left a three-month LIBOR rate in the range from -1.25% to -0.25%.
The bank’s statement said that this decision and the decline in economic forecasts “was mainly due to the deterioration of the prospects for economic growth and inflation abroad, as well as the associated decrease in expectations regarding interest rates in key economic regions”.
This statement was partly confirmed on Friday, when the weak, much worse than forecast, macro data came out, indicating an acceleration of the slowdown of the European economy.
The Swiss franc reacted with restraint to the decision of the NBS, which traditionally considers the franc to be overbought, which does not allow for a more active increase in the growth rate of the Swiss economy. GDP in the 4th quarter grew by only 1.4%, as recently reported in the government of the country.
The economic barometer KOF in February fell by 3.8 points and amounted to 92.4, continuing to decline from the long-term average of 100. Since September last year, the index has lost 10 points. "We can expect that the Swiss economy will show weakness in the coming months", said the KOF Economic Research Agency report.
Most likely, the interest rate of the NBS will not change in the near future.
Soft monetary policy of the central bank usually contributes to keeping the national currency rate low. Nevertheless, the franc maintains stability in the foreign exchange market, receiving support from franc buyers, who traditionally use it as a protective asset during periods of heightened turbulence in financial markets and the uncertainty of the political situation in the world.
Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened significantly over the past two days after falling on Wednesday, when the Fed unexpectedly announced its propensity for a softer monetary policy.
At the beginning of the European session on Friday, DXY dollar index futures traded near the 96.20 mark, 103 points higher than the minimum reached on Wednesday.
From the news for today we are waiting for the publication (at 13:45 GMT) of the PMI indices from Markit Economics for the USA. The preliminary manufacturing PMI index is expected to be 53.6 in March (against 53.0 in February), while the composite PMI index is expected to be 55.2 against 55.5 in February.
Data worse than forecasts can trigger a fall in the dollar and the closure of long positions on it at the end of the week.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
Support and Resistance Levels
At the beginning of the European session, the USD / CHF is trading near the level of 0.9945, through which the strong resistance level (EMA144 on the daily chart) passes.
The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts turned to long positions.
In the case of the breakdown of the resistance level of 0.9945, the growth of USD / CHF will continue, and the positive dynamics will again increase.
In the case of a confirmed breakdown of the key support level of 0.9920 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 50% of the upward correction to the last wave of decline since November 2018 and from 1.0130), the negative dynamics will increase. A break of this level will increase the risks of breaking the USD / CHF uptrend.
Support Levels: 0.9920, 0.9875, 0.9815, 0.9785, 0.9745, 0.9720
Resistance Levels: 0.9945, 0.9970, 0.9990, 1.0005, 1.0050, 1.0090, 1.0130, 1.0160
Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.9910. Stop Loss 0.9955. Take-Profit 0.9875, 0.9800, 0.9780, 0.9745, 0.9720
Buy Stop 0.9950. Stop Loss 0.9910. Take-Profit 0.9990, 1.0005, 1.0050, 1.0090, 1.0130, 1.0160
https://i.postimg.cc/XYSxH4sx/220319-DXY.png
https://i.postimg.cc/fTyHP87q/220319-UCF-D.png
https://i.postimg.cc/ncWdfq0F/220319-UCF-H1.png
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
-
EUR/USD: Current trend
03/25/2019
At the end of last week, the dollar fell, moreover, it was already the second week in a row of dollar decline.
Last Wednesday, when the Fed meeting ended, DXY dollar index futures, which valued the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, traded near the 95.17 mark, with a significant decrease to the closing price of the previous week.
The leaders of the American Central Bank unexpectedly stated that rates would not rise this year, and a one-time increase in interest rates may be next year.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the policy of the Central Bank may remain unchanged for many months.
Some participants in the financial market are betting that the Fed may soon reach a rate cut, which has not happened since the 2008 financial crisis. According to the CME Group, futures for federal funds show that market participants estimate the likelihood of Fed rate cuts by the end of the year at 57%, which is 11% higher than a month earlier.
On Monday, the decline in the dollar resumed. DXY dollar index futures traded at the beginning of the European session near the 96.11 mark, 5 points lower than the opening price on Monday.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
Meanwhile, the EUR / USD is recovering on Monday after a significant drop last Friday, when the PMI indices for Germany, France and the Eurozone were published.
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the German manufacturing sector, according to IHS Markit, fell to 44.7 in March from 47.6 in February, reaching the lowest level in more than 6.5 years. France's preliminary composite PMI dropped to 48.7 from 50.4 in February. An index value below 50 indicates slowdown and reduced activity. At the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.1300 mark.
Below the resistance level of 1.1335 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts) only short positions are recommended. The targets for the decline after the breakdown of the support level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900 that began in May 2014) will be the support levels of 1.1210 (November lows), 1.1190 (March and year lows), 1.1120, 1.1000.
Support Levels: 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1335, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480
Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1280. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1260, 1.1210, 1.1185, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1340. Stop-Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480
https://i.postimg.cc/g0XCwhG4/250319-DXY.png
https://i.postimg.cc/nLy6qLzx/250319-EU-D.png
https://i.postimg.cc/FR0wpQdL/250319-EU-H4.png
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
-
NZD/USD develops upward momentum
03/26/2019
On the eve of the meeting of the RBNZ on the topic of monetary policy, the publication of data on the foreign trade of New Zealand was held. The Statistics Bureau of New Zealand reported on Tuesday that the trade surplus of the country in February amounted to 12 million New Zealand dollars (a deficit of 109 million New Zealand dollars was forecast). At the same time, exports amounted to $ 4.82 billion in February (compared with the forecast of 4.70 billion and the previous value of $ 4.33 billion).
Over the past two weeks, the New Zealand dollar has strengthened, which is associated by economists with optimism around the US-China trade negotiations.
The RBNZ interest rate decision will be published on Wednesday (01:00 GMT).
Probably, the rate will remain at the same level of 1.75%. Market participants expect the rate of the RBNZ to remain at the current level throughout 2019 and the first half of 2020.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
Meanwhile, NZD / USD is developing an upward trend above key support levels of 0.6865 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, started in July 2014; the wave minima are near the level of 0.6260), 0.6815 (ЕМА200 on daily chart). Growth targets are at resistance levels of 0.6980 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7060 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
The alternative scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level of 0.6815 and a decline to the support levels of 0.6750, 0.6700, which will increase the risk of NZD / USD returning to a bearish trend.
Support levels: 0.6900, 0.6865, 0.6840, 0.6815, 0.6750, 0.6700, 0.6630, 0.6575
Resistance levels: 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060
Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6885. Stop Loss 0.6925. Take-Profit 0.6865, 0.6840, 0.6815, 0.6750, 0.6700, 0.6630, 0.6575
Buy Stop 0.6925. Stop Loss 0.6885. Take-Profit 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060
https://i.postimg.cc/hjmwmVTS/260319-10-Y.png
https://i.postimg.cc/wMdrQ3QD/260319-NU-D.png
https://i.postimg.cc/brHBC8mW/260319-NU-H4.png
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
-
NZD/USD: RBNZ softened the rhetoric
03/27/2019
Current Dynamics
The New Zealand dollar fell significantly on Wednesday after the RBNZ left the key rate at 1.75% and indicated the likelihood of interest rate cuts
According to the RBNZ, "the outlook for the global economy continues to deteriorate". "Given the deterioration in the prospects for the world economy and the weakening of the impulse of spending inside the country, the more likely direction of our key interest rate will be its decline", the RBNZ said in a statement. Now some economists predict that by the end of this year, the RBNZ will lower rates twice.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
The NZD / USD fell by 1.6%, reaching a minimum near the level of 0.6793, breaking through the key support level of 0.6815 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts turned to short positions.
The negative scenario implies a further weakening of the New Zealand dollar, a breakdown of the support level of 0.6798 (EMA144 on the daily chart) and a decline to the support levels of 0.6750, 0.6700.
The breakdown of these support levels will mean the return of NZD / USD to a bearish trend.
If NZD / USD resumes upward trend, then growth targets will be resistance levels of 0.6865 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from 0.8800 level, which began in July 2014; wave minima are near 0.6260), 0.6935, 0.6980.
Support levels: 0.6798, 0.6750, 0.6700
Resistance levels: 0.6815, 0.6840, 0.6865, 0.6935, 0.6980
Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6785. Stop Loss 0.6825. Take-Profit 0.6750, 0.6700, 0.6630, 0.6575
Buy Stop 0.6825. Stop Loss 0.6785. Take-Profit 0.6865, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060
https://i.postimg.cc/Vk1pZZQC/270319-NU-D.png
https://i.postimg.cc/tCF85Qfb/270319-NU-H4.png
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
-
EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
03/28/2019
The dollar is rising again in the second half of the European session, and the EUR / USD is trading near the 1.1235 mark. At the same time, futures for the dollar index DXY, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, is trading near 96.64, 36 points higher than the closing price on Wednesday.
The US Federal Reserve last week also made it clear that this year it does not plan to raise rates.
Nevertheless, the US dollar is supported because of the deteriorating economic situation in Europe and the world, which makes investors more fearful of a slowdown in the global economy. In this situation, investors buy the dollar, because the United States is the largest economy in the world, from the end of 2017 ahead of other developed economies in terms of growth rates.
The American economy in the current situation looks more attractive.
On Thursday, market participants will pay attention to the publication (12:30 GMT) of the US annual GDP for the 4th quarter (final release). GDP data is one of the key (along with labor market and inflation data) for the Fed in terms of its monetary policy. A strong result strengthens the US dollar; a weak GDP report adversely affects the US dollar. In the previous quarter, GDP growth was +3.4%. The forecast for 4Q 2018 +2.4%. Despite the relative decline, this is a strong indicator. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast, the dollar will respond with a decrease.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
Trading recommendations
EUR / USD is in a long-term bearish trend, trading lower for the second week in a row.
Below the key resistance levels 1.1420 (ЕМА144), 1.1470 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) short positions are preferable.
The targets for the decline after the breakdown of the support level of 1.1210 (November lows) will be the levels of 1.1190 (March and year lows), 1.1120, 1.1000.
Support Levels: 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1325, 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1470
Trading recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1310. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1185, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1310. Stop Loss 1.1210. Take-Profit 1.1325, 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1470
https://i.postimg.cc/gjbYVd01/280319-DXY.png
https://i.postimg.cc/v858Q1qy/280319-EU-D.png
https://i.postimg.cc/SRLmV52R/280319-EU-H4.png
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
-
GBP/USD: Current Dynamics
03/29/2019
On Friday, the British parliament will vote for the Brexit plan proposed by Theresa May for the third time, albeit in a truncated form. Voting will take place on one of the parts of the transaction, which spelled out such provisions as the rights of citizens, payments to the UK in the EU funds and measures to prevent the creation of a rigid border in Ireland.
If parliament votes in favor, the UK will leave the EU on May 22. If they don’t support it, then until April 12, London will have to offer an alternative agreement to Brussels.
This year, Parliament has twice rejected the plan for a deal with the EU proposed by Theresa May.
Voting in the British Parliament is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT). Any unexpected voting results or related comments may cause increased volatility in the GBP / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
In the meantime, the pair GBP / USD is trading near 1.3100, above the key support levels of 1.3060 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.3035 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
Breakdown of these support levels may trigger a deeper decline. The targets are at the support levels of 1.3035, 1.2970 (March lows), 1.2800 (February lows), 1.2700 (October and August 2018 lows).
The breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.3125 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will signal a resumption of purchases with targets at resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to a decline in the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near 1.7200) , 1.3370 (maximums of March and year), 1.3400 (upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 1.3660 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 1.3060, 1.3035, 1.2970, 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600
Resistance Levels: 1.3125, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3370, 1.3400, 1.3660
Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3010. Stop Loss 1.3135. Take-Profit 1.2970, 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2590, 1.2480
Buy Stop 1.3135. Stop Loss 1.3010. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3370, 1.3400, 1.3660
https://i.postimg.cc/CxnchkjN/290319-GU-D.png
https://i.postimg.cc/c4bDGX8C/290319-GU-H4.png
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
-
AUD/USD: current dynamics
01/04/2019
The US dollar declines on Monday after last Friday, the DXY dollar index, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, reached a two-week high near the 96.91 mark. Investors prefer the US dollar amid risks of a slowdown in the global economy. The US economy looks more resilient than other major global economies.
On Monday at the beginning of the European session, futures for the dollar index DXY is trading near the mark of 96.68.
Received last Sunday and during the Asian session on Monday, positive macro statistics from China contributed to the growth of Chinese yuan and the currencies of the Asia-Pacific region, as well as a decrease in the US dollar.
The official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in China rebounded noticeably in March, hardening to a 6-month high of 50.5 from 49.2 in February, exceeding the forecast of 49.5. The business activity index in the service sector also turned out to be in March (54.8) better than the forecast (54.1) and the previous value (54.3).
The index of purchasing managers (PMI) for the manufacturing sector of China from Caixin in March rose to 50.8 from 49.9 in February. The PMI index from Caixin in March reached the highest point since October, exceeding the level of 50, which separates the growth of activity from the decline.
As a result, the AUD / USD opened today with a gap up by 23 points, and at the beginning of the European session it was trading near the daily high of 0.7131.
However, by the beginning of the American session, the AUD / USD pair is again decreasing before the publication of important macro data from the USA (in the period from 12:30 to 14:00 (GMT)). Favorable statistics on retail trade and business activity in the US manufacturing sector are expected in March. PMI is expected to grow in the US manufacturing sector (from ISM) to 54.5 against 54.2 in February.
This is a strong indicator that will have a positive impact on the USD when the forecast is confirmed.
On Tuesday, a meeting of the RB of Australia on monetary policy will be held. According to the forecasts of economists, the RBA will keep the interest rate unchanged on Tuesday, at the level of 1.5%, but will hint at the likelihood of an early decrease in the interest rate. This will have a negative effect on AUD.
Publication of the RBA decision on the rate is scheduled for 03:30 (GMT).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
Despite the growth during the Asian session, AUD / USD remains under pressure below the key resistance level of 0.7230 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Mostly long-term negative dynamics.
In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.7110 (EMA50 on the daily chart), AUD / USD will go inside the downward channel on the daily chart towards the support levels of 0.7025, 0.6980, 0.6910 (September 2015 lows), 0.6830 (2016 lows). Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 0.7110,0.7100, 0.7025, 0.6980
Resistance Levels: 0.7140, 0.7180, 0.7230, 0.7295
Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7150. Take-Profit 0.7100, 0.7055, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7150. Stop Loss 0.7090. Take-Profit 0.7180, 0.7230
https://i.postimg.cc/fL0j08my/010419-AU-D.png
https://i.postimg.cc/C5TCCbsN/010419-AU-H4.png
https://i.postimg.cc/4d7kHRWc/010419-DXY.png
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com