Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Brent: gasoline stocks rose
04/10/2017
Current dynamics
As the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported yesterday in its weekly report on oil and petroleum products, crude oil inventories in the USA fell by 4.1 million barrels over the past week, while gasoline stocks increased by 4.2 million barrels, which significantly exceeded forecasts of analysts of the oil market. The growth in gasoline stocks signals a forthcoming drop in demand for oil from US refineries, which is a negative factor for oil prices.
During today's Asian session, oil prices fell to nearly 2-week lows, while WTI oil traded near a psychologically important level of $ 50 per barrel. November futures for light sweet crude on the NYMEX traded at $ 50.10 per barrel, with a decrease of $ 0.32 per barrel. December futures for Brent crude fell 0.48% to 55.73 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude was at the beginning of today's European session near the mark of $ 55.50 per barrel.
After last week, the price of Brent crude oil has reached a new annual maximum near the mark of 58.80, for the seventh consecutive day the price is falling. Investors record profits after oil prices in the third quarter jumped by more than 12%.
Investors also assess signs of increased oil production. OPEC's production in September was 32.86 million barrels a day, up from the previous month and above the agreed aggregate production ceiling of the cartel (just under 32 million barrels per day), which indicates a violation of OPEC's agreement to cut production.
On the other hand, American producers are resuming production growth, taking advantage of the situation with rising prices. According to data provided by the oil service company Baker Hughes Inc. on Friday, the number of active drilling rigs in the US rose for the first time in seven weeks, to 750 units. The rise in prices contributed to an increase in activity in the US oil-extracting sector.
Another point, negative for the dynamics of oil prices, is the seasonal decline in demand for oil in the autumn period.
The official weekly report from the US Department of Energy on oil and petroleum products will be released on Wednesday (14:30 GMT). If he also points to the growth of oil products, primarily gasoline, then oil prices will continue to decline.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastics) on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts give signals to short positions.
The price for Brent crude oil is falling to the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart and the support level of 54.70 (EMA200 on the 4-hour, weekly charts).
An alternative scenario will be associated with a price return to the zone above the level of 55.70 (the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart and EMA50 on the monthly chart).
The immediate goal in case of resumption of growth is level 56.60. The next medium-term target will be the level of resistance at 62.00, near which there are EMA144, EMA200 lines on the monthly chart. But you can talk about this goal only after the price will update the annual maximum near the level of 58.80.
So far, negative dynamics have prevailed. If the price falls below the level of 54.70, inside the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which passes near the level of 36.05 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), increase risks of resuming the downtrend with targets at 51.80 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 50.00 (lows in August), 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 36.05 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the weekly chart ).
Support levels: 55.70, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.80, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 56.60, 57.50, 58.80

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 55.85. Take-Profit 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.80, 50.70, 50.00
Buy Stop 55.85. Stop-Loss 55.20. Take-Profit 56.60, 57.50, 58.80, 59.00, 60.00, 62.00




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USD/CHF: the dollar is stable
05/10/2017
Current dynamics
As reported today by the Federal Office of Statistics of Switzerland, the CPI of Switzerland in September increased by 0.2% and 0.7% in annual terms (forecast was + 0.6% and + 0.5% in August). The consumer price index measures the average change in prices for all goods and a service purchased by households for personal consumption, and is a key indicator of inflation. The Swiss National Bank adheres to the policy of extra soft monetary policy and traditionally declares about the overvaluation of the Swiss franc and its high exchange rate.
The Swiss franc has reacted with a decline in the publication of data, including against the dollar, which remains the leader in the foreign exchange market, pending the publication on Friday of key data on the labor market in the US for September.
Some economists believe that a significant increase in jobs would justify another increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve System before the end of this year. If NFP grows by less than 100,000, the dollar may fall sharply.
Also, investors are interested in whom US President Donald Trump recommends to the position of the head of the Federal Reserve after the term of office of the current chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen expires in February.
The candidatures of the current Fed governor Jerome Powell and former manager Kevin Warsh are being considered. Unlike Powell, Warsh is an ardent critic of the Fed and an opponent of the quantitative easing program. Kevin Warsh is known as an opponent of super-soft monetary policy, while Jerome Powell is a supporter of Yellen.
The change in the leadership of the US central bank can significantly affect the prospects for monetary policy. Tighter monetary policy usually provides support to the dollar, making US assets more attractive to investors seeking to profitability.
Also today, volatility in the foreign exchange market could rise sharply from 11:30 (GMT), when information is published from the ECB's September meeting on monetary policy. The information contained in the protocols can shed light on the prospects of the QE program in the Eurozone.
At 13:10, 13:15, 14:00 (GMT), speeches of FRS management members Jerome Powell, John Williams and Patrick Harker are scheduled. It is likely that they will also speak in favor of another increase in the interest rate in the US before the end of the year, which the dollar will support.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
At the beginning of the European session, the pair USD / CHF is trading near the key resistance levels 0.9765 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.9770 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and from the level of 1.0300).
Concerns about geopolitical tensions have declined, and the dollar has received support from the Fed, which confirmed its intention to raise the rate in December, and from positive US macro data coming in recently.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of buyers.
Breakdown of resistance levels 0.9765, 0.9770 will provoke further growth of USD / CHF with targets at the levels of 0.9840, 0.9875 (Fibonacci level of 50%).
The alternative scenario involves breakdown of support levels 0.9730 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.9700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) and further decline with targets at support levels 0.9650 (Fibonacci level 23.6% and EMA200 on 4-hour chart), 0.9300 (lower limit downlink on the weekly chart).
So far, long positions are preferable.
Support levels: 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300
Resistance levels: 0.9765, 0.9770, 0.9800, 0.9840, 0.9875

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 0.9780. Stop-Loss 0.9740. Take-Profit 0.9800, 0.9840, 0.9875
Sell Stop 0.9740. Stop-Loss 0.9780. Take-Profit 0.9700, 0.9670, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

XAU/USD: dollar and labor market data in the US - the focus of traders
06/10/2017
Current dynamics
In recent days, gold prices have been under pressure amid strong US economic data. They strengthened expectations of another increase in interest rates before the end of the year. With an increase in the interest rate in the US, the price of gold usually falls, if the calm geopolitical and financial and economic situation in the world also contributes to this.
According to CME Group, the markets take into account the 83% chance of raising rates this year against 44% a month ago.
With an increase in interest rates, precious metals, including gold, usually become cheaper, if the geopolitical situation at this time remains stable. Gold, which does not bring investment income and can not compete with more profitable assets, becomes cheaper, as the cost of borrowing for its acquisition and storage grows with an increase in the interest rate.
The volume of trading is not large before the publication today at 12:30 (GMT) of the report on the number of jobs outside of US agriculture. Some economists believe that a significant increase in jobs would justify another increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve System before the end of this year. If NFP grows by less than 100,000, the dollar may fall sharply.
At the same time, the market can ignore NFP data, because the number of employees could have decreased due to recent hurricanes. The most important detail in the report on US employment may be a pay indicator. For five consecutive months, the growth of salaries in the US remained unchanged at 2.5% compared to the same period of the previous year. Now it is expected that the indicator will remain unchanged. This is a negative factor for the dollar, despite the fact that unemployment will remain at the same low level of 4.4%.
In any case, at 12:30 (GMT) we should expect a dramatic surge in volatility, not only in gold prices, but throughout the currency market, which must be taken into account when making trading decisions. The most cautious trading position for today is to stay out of the market.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Since the opening of today, the pair XAU / USD is trading in a narrow range near the support level 1270.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
The scenario for the decline will be related to the breakdown of the support level of 1262.00 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart). The immediate target is the support level of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016). Breakdown of the key support level of 1248.00 will provoke a further decline in the pair XAU / USD and its return to the downtrend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts recommend short positions.
The fundamental background (tightening of monetary policy in the US) creates the prerequisites for further reduction of XAU / USD, unless there is another escalation of geopolitical tensions, including on the Korean peninsula.
The alternative scenario is connected with the breakdown of the nearest resistance level at 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) and further growth with a long target of 1357.00 (annual highs). The more distant goal is at the level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100% and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 1270.00, 1262.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1277.00, 1293.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1265.00. Stop-Loss 1275.00. Take-Profit 1262.00, 1260.00, 1248.00
Buy Stop 1275.00. Stop-Loss 1265.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1290.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

EUR/USD: investors believe in the future of the European economy
09/10/2017
Current dynamics
As the indicator of Sentix investors' confidence published today shows, investors believe in the future of the European economy. This is the leading indicator of the economic health of the Eurozone, as changes in investor sentiment may be an early signal for future economic activity.
For October, the indicator Sentix came out with a value of 29.7 (forecast was 28.5 and 28.2 in the previous month). In the monthly survey of Sentix, 1,600 financial analysts and investors participate, and this is the highest value of the indicator since March 2008 and since July 2016.
According to the report, the mood of investors was practically not affected by the results of the elections to the German Bundestag, where the ruling "Christian Democratic Union" (CDU) received 33% of the votes of the deputies - the weakest result for this party since 1949. New elections in Germany are unlikely, but it is possible that if the winning ruling party, Angela Merkel, has problems in finding supporters for the bloc. Political instability in this country could have the most negative impact on the positions of the single currency.
The referendum in Catalonia also seems to have had little effect on investor sentiment.
The German industrial production figures published in August show that the country's economy has overcome the seasonal decline and has returned to growth. Germany's industrial production in August grew by 2.6% compared with July (forecast was + 0.7%).
Production orders in Germany in August rose by 3.6% (+ 0.7% in the previous report) and 7.8% in annual terms (+ 4.7% in the previous report). At the same time, export orders in the manufacturing sector in Germany grew by 4.3%. Such positive data were presented by the Statistical Office of Germany last Friday. The latest data show a positive outlook for Germany's GDP growth in the third quarter.
Germany remains the center of the European Union, and its economy is the locomotive of the European economy. Positive macro statistics from Germany can testify to positive growth prospects not only of the German, but of the entire Eurozone economy.
Today in the US is a day off (Columbus Day). American exchanges are closed, so the trading volume will be low.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The EUR/USD continues to trade near the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart, passing near the mark 1.1705.
The breakdown of the support level 1.1705 will provoke a decline to support level 1.1630 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). The break of this level will open the way to support levels 1.1360 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the side of sellers.
The alternative scenario involves the return of the EUR/USD to the zone above the resistance levels 1.1780 (EMA50 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%), 1.1820 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the resumption of growth in the uplink on the weekly chart 1.2180 (the upper border of the channel and the Fibonacci level of 50%). The first signal for growth will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level 1.1765 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support levels: 1.1705, 1.1630, 1.1360, 1.1285
Resistance levels: 1.1765, 1.1780, 1.1820, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1710. Stop-Loss 1.1770. Take-Profit 1.1670, 1.1630, 1.1600, 1.1400
Buy Stop 1.1770. Stop-Loss 1.1710. Take-Profit 1.1800, 1.1820, 1.1870, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

XAU/USD: growing geopolitical tensions provoked purchases of gold
10/10/2017
Current dynamics
Increasing anxiety about possible geopolitical shocks again creates prerequisites for a rise in gold prices. On Saturday, US President Donald Trump again announced the possibility of a military solution to the conflict with North Korea. On Sunday, the US and Turkey mutually suspended the issuance of nonimmigrant visas. In addition, at the weekend in Barcelona, protest rallies were held regarding the outcome of the referendum in Catalonia. Today, the President of Catalonia Carles Puicdemont must speak in the regional parliament. It can proclaim the independence of the region, which can cause the volatility to increase in trading on financial markets and again increase the demand for gold.
On Monday, December gold futures for COMEX closed with an increase of 0.8%, at a level of 1285 US dollars per troy ounce. The spot price for gold at the beginning of today's European session was near the mark of 1290.00 dollars per ounce.
Meanwhile, traders continue to study the US labor market report published on Friday, which strengthened investors' expectations about the December rate hikes. In periods of rising interest rates, gold prospects deteriorate as gold can not compete with more profitable assets, such as treasury bonds, as the cost of acquiring and storing gold increases.
The Fed regularly reminds that it will not abandon its plan to gradually raise interest rates, and this is a negative factor for the price of gold.
Market participants will study the text of the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee, which will be published on Wednesday (18:00 GMT) to understand how the Fed's FOMC members' rhetoric has changed about interest rate plans. According to the CME Group, the markets take into account the 85% chance of raising rates this year against 44% a month ago.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
Since the opening of today, the XAU/USD is growing, and at the beginning of the European session is trading near the 1290.00 mark and the resistance level (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart).
The scenario for strengthening the XAU/USD is connected with the breakdown of the resistance level of 1290.00 and further growth with a long target of 1357.00 (annual highs).
The more distant goal is at the level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100% and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart).
The reverse scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016) and further decrease to the key support level of 1262.00 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the support level of 1248.00 (50% Fibonacci level) will provoke further decline of the XAU/USD and its return to the downtrend.
The fundamental background (the tightening of monetary policy in the US) creates the prerequisites for the reduction of XAU/USD. However, the growth of geopolitical tensions in the world again brings buyers back to the gold market.
Support levels: 1277.00, 1270.00, 1262.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1290.00, 1293.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1284.00. Stop-Loss 1294.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1270.00, 1262.00, 1248.00
Buy Stop 1294.00. Stop-Loss 1284.00. Take-Profit 1300.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

EUR/USD: euro at the crossroads
11/10/2017
Current dynamics
Today, the euro is trading higher; receiving support after the President of Catalonia Carles Puicdemont said that he is postponing the declaration of independence. Yesterday in Barcelona, a declaration was adopted on the independence of Catalonia from Spain, however, the head of the Catalan government Carles Puicdemont said that "Catalonia should become independent, but it is impossible to hurry with this". The growth of the single European currency is limited, although the euro rose to 2-week highs against the US dollar and the Swiss franc, as investors await the reaction of Madrid.
The response statement of Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy may become a key factor determining the direction of the euro in the future until the October ECB meeting (October 26), when the question of the prospects for curtailing the QE program in the Eurozone will be again decided.
At the same time, today investors will study the text of the minutes from the September meeting of the Fed, which will be published at 18:00 (GMT).
As the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and FOMC member Robert Kaplan stated yesterday, "if we wait too long for signs of accelerating inflation, then we will have to raise interest rates at a higher rate. In this case, the probability of a recession in the US economy will increase".
Earlier (last week) another Fed representative, FOMC member John Williams, said in the same vein that he "still considers it expedient to have another interest rate increase in 2017 and three rate hikes in 2018, which corresponds to a gradual rate of tightening policy".
Two representatives of the Federal Reserve Bank Charles Evans (11:15 GMT) and John Williams (18:40 GMT) are scheduled for today. It is likely that the dollar will receive support from their speeches, as they are likely to come forward in support of the Fed's plans for a phased tightening of monetary policy.
According to the CME Group, investors estimate the likelihood of an increase in interest rates in the US by the end of this year at 88% versus 31% a month ago after the publication of a report on the labor market in the US last Friday. Despite the fact that the number of jobs outside of US agriculture in September decreased for the first time in seven years (by 33,000), the unemployment rate in September fell by 0.2 percentage points, to 4.2%, which was the lowest since the beginning 2001.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
At the moment, the EUR/USD is trading at an important short-term resistance level 1.1815 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), maintaining a positive momentum.
The signal for further growth will be a breakdown of the local resistance level at 1.1845 (today's highs). In this case, the EUR/USD growth will resume within the upward channel on the weekly chart. The target of the growth is the mark 1.2180 (the upper border of the channel and the Fibonacci level of 50% corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900).
An alternative scenario for the decline involves a breakdown of the support level 1.1780 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%) and a drop to support level 1.1630 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Medium-term reduction targets after the breakdown of the level of 1.1630 – are support levels 1.1360 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6%).
Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1700, 1.1630, 1.1360, 1.1285
Resistance levels: 1.1815, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1790. Stop-Loss 1.1850. Take-Profit 1.1700, 1.1670, 1.1630, 1.1600, 1.1400
Buy Stop 1.1850. Stop-Loss 1.1790. Take-Profit 1.1870, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

DJIA: stock indexes continue to grow
12/10/2017
Current dynamics
US stock markets on Wednesday continued to grow after Wednesday's (18:00 GMT) punctures were published punctuated by the September meeting of the Fed.
The minutes said that while many members of the committee still expect another rate hike in 2017, some of them admit the temporary nature of low inflation in the US, which encourages them to take a more cautious approach to raising interest rates.
The protocols indicate that the Fed leaders have not yet reached a consensus on inflation, which could increase uncertainty about monetary policy in the coming months. "It is noted that it is necessary to maintain patience with curtailing soft policies, assessing inflation trends," the protocols say. Chicago Fed president FOMC member Charles Evans said yesterday that he is "a little concerned" about whether it's worth raising rates again if inflation does not accelerate. Another member of the FOMC, Robert Kaplan, who is the president of the Fed-Dallas, also said that he had not yet decided whether he would vote for a rate hike in December.
According to the CME Group futures market, the probability of an increase in the Fed's interest rate in December is 82.9% versus 93.1% before the publication of the minutes.
All three major US stock indexes rose again, reaching new record highs yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to 22872.00, the S & P500 rose 0.2% to 2,555.00, the Nasdaq Composite - up 0.3% to 6603.00.
American stock indexes continued to grow actively from the end of last month, when
Republicans presented in the US Congress their plan to reform the tax code, suggesting significantly lower taxes for companies and many individuals. This again revived hopes that the Trump administration will be able to take measures that will support economic growth.
Low inflation does not allow the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. In combination with strong macroeconomic data, this gives grounds to market participants to continue investing in high-risk high-risk assets of the US stock market, which is reflected in the growth of indices.
As the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Rafael Bostic, stated today, the US economy "is firmly on its feet, and there are some signs that such a picture will continue to be observed." According to Bostic, GDP growth will be about 2%, and the hurricanes that hit the country in recent months are unlikely to disrupt the recovery.
At 14:30 (GMT) today, representatives of the Federal Reserve, members of the FOMC Lel Brainard and Jerome Powell, whom US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin urged US President Donald Trump to appoint as the new chairman of the Fed, will speak today. The appointment of Powell as the head of the central bank is likely to be positively received by market participants.
It's interesting to hear what Powell will say about the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy until the end of the year.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The DJIA index continues to grow since January 2016. Yesterday DJIA updated the absolute maximum near the 22865.0 mark, keeping positive dynamics.
Reducing fears about the effects of hurricanes in the United States, positive macro data from the US, as well as the Fed's still obscure overall position on further interest rate hikes amid low inflation, create prerequisites for investors to increase their appetite for buying risky assets.
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts recommend long positions.
Consideration of short positions is possible only in the short term and only after the breakdown of the support levels 22705.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 22600.0 (the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).
While DJIA is trading above the key support level of 21168.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the growth in the wave from the level of 15660.0 after rebounding in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year.The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level 0% is near the mark of 22177.0), long-term positive dynamics persists.
The breakdown of the local resistance level of 22865.0 will signal the continuation of the growth of the index.
Support levels: 22705.0, 22600.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21500.0, 21168.0
Resistance levels: 22865.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 22870.0. Stop-Loss 22750.0. Take-Profit 23000.0, 24000.0
Sell Stop 22750.0. Stop-Loss 22870.0. Take-Profit 22705.0, 22600.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21500.0, 21168.0




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: pound grows ahead of BOE meeting in November
Current dynamics
13/10/2017
The focus of traders today will be the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of a block of inflation indicators for the US for September. In general, the growth of indicators is expected. Nevertheless, according to many economists, only stronger than expected data can support the dollar. Moreover, for the stable growth of the dollar, it will take inflation to show good results within a few months.
Among the indicators published today in the US:
1) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a key indicator for assessing inflation. The forecast: + 0.6% (against + 0.4%, according to the previous report),
2) The level of retail sales. This is the main indicator of consumer spending. The report is leading, and further data can be heavily revised. The forecast: +1,7% (against -0,2%, according to the previous report).
In addition, it is worth paying attention to the speeches of four representatives of the Federal Reserve: Eric Rosengren, Charles Evans, Stephen Kaplan, and Jerome Powell. Their performances are scheduled for 12:30, 14:25, 15:30, 17:00 (GMT), respectively. In the Fed there is no consensus on the timing of raising the interest rate. And this is holding back the dollar from more active recovery, despite a number of positive macroeconomic data coming from the US recently.
Meanwhile, the pound is growing in the currency market on the eve of the November meeting of the Bank of England, which can go on raising the interest rate amid a sharp increase after the referendum on Brexit inflation in the country, as well as strong macroeconomic indicators.
Thus, the level of retail sales in the UK increased in September by 1.9% (in annual terms), which is better than the forecast (+1.3%). The growth of retail sales indicates an increase in the level of domestic consumption and consumption of consumers in the UK, whose GDP is largely due to the domestic consumption of British people.
Many economists expect that the British pound will grow, as the prospect of an immediate increase in interest rates in the UK pushed fears about Brexit into the background. Yesterday, the pair GBP/USD fell after Michel Barnier, the chief negotiator for Brexit from the EU, said that the negotiations had entered an "alarming" impasse. Then the pound recovered amid reports that the EU could agree to a two-year transition period.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Today, the GBP/USD pair is growing for the fifth consecutive day, recovering more than half of last week's losses. It is likely that after a three-week decline, the GBP/USD is corrected. At the moment, GBP/USD is trying to gain a foothold above the important support levels: 1.3227 (EMA200 on 4-hour and 1-hour charts), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the pair GBP/USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts turned to long positions.
In case of breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3322 (today's highs), GBP/USD may continue to rise within the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, the upper limit of which runs near resistance level 1.3745 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).
While the GBP/USD pair is trading above the support level of 1.3000 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the weekly chart), the positive mid-term dynamics of the GBP/USD is maintained.
Alternative scenario: after the breakdown of support level 1.3175, GBP/USD will go to support level 1.3000, the breakdown of which will increase the risks of GBP/USD return to the global downtrend, which began in July 2014.
Support levels: 1.3225, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2975
Resistance levels: 1.3290, 1.3435, 1.3460, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3745

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3240. Stop-Loss 1.3330. Take-Profit 1.3225, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2975
Buy Stop 1.3330. Stop-Loss 1.3240. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3460, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3745



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: Week of publication of important macro data for Great Britain
Current dynamics
16/10/2017
The focus of traders trading in the British pound, this week will be the publication of important macro data on the UK. On Tuesday (08:30 GMT), a block of inflation indicators for the UK for September (indices of producer prices, consumer price indices) will be published. It is expected that annual inflation in September rose to 3.0%, reaching the highest level in more than five years. The increase in inflation was triggered by the weakening of the British pound after the referendum on Brexit, held in the summer of 2016.
Inflation, outstripping the growth of wages, forces the British to limit their spending, which leads to a slowdown in the growth of the British economy, which is largely oriented toward the domestic market.
Also on Tuesday (10:15 GMT) the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney is scheduled.
On Wednesday (08:30) there will be data on the UK labor market for September, and data may show a drop in the unemployment rate below 4.3%, and on Thursday strong retail sales data may be published.
If the data really justifies expectations and will prove to be strong, market participants will be able to more confidently take into account the increase in the key interest rate at a meeting of the Bank of England on November 2.
Now the probability of an increase in the rate in November is taken into account at the level of 85%. It is likely that the British pound will rise, as the prospect of an increase in interest rates in the UK temporarily pushed fears about Brexit into the background.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Since the beginning of the year, the GBP/USD has been rising in the upward channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is near resistance level 1.3760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).
As a result of the 5-day growth, the GBP/USD is once again trading above the important support levels of 1.3185 (EMA50 on the daily chart), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the GBP/USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200 ), 1.3230 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
Positive dynamics of the pair supported by positive macro data and the expectation of a rate increase in the UK. If the growth continues, the targets will be the resistance levels 1.3440 (local highs and the middle of the upward channel on the daily chart), 1.3630 (annual highs), 1.3760.
While the GBP/USD is trading above the support level of 1.3000 (EMA144, EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the uplink on the weekly chart), positive medium-term dynamics is maintained.
To review short positions, you can return after the breakdown of the support level of 1.3185. The breakdown of the support level of 1.3000 will increase the risks of GBP/USD return to the global downtrend, which began in July 2014.
Support levels: 1.3230, 1.3210, 1.3185, 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2975
Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3250. Stop-Loss 1.3340. Take-Profit 1.3230, 1.3210, 1.3185, 1.3100, 1.3000
Buy Stop 1.3340. Stop-Loss 1.3250. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

NZD/USD: Fundamental factors are on the side of bears
17/10/2017
Current dynamics

The CPI of New Zealand in the third quarter grew by 0.5% (the forecast was +0.4% and 0% in the previous quarter) and 1.9% in annual terms (the forecast was +1.8% and 1.7% in the previous quarter). Such data was published today at the beginning of the trading day by the Bureau of Statistics of New Zealand. The CPI index is a key indicator of inflation and an indicator of changes in consumer trends. In response to the publication, the New Zealand dollar jumped in price, gaining about 30 points against the US dollar. Later, during the Asian session, the NZD / USD pair declined, however, again moved to positive territory during the first half of the European session.
Despite the 7-day volatile growth of the NZD/USD, the New Zealand currency is experiencing difficulties with growth. This is facilitated by both the US dollar strengthening its positions, and domestic political uncertainty in New Zealand. There is still no government in the country. The elections that took place at the end of September in New Zealand did not reveal an absolute winner, and now the National, Labor, Green, ACT and the First Party, which received the majority, will have to form a coalition government. Political uncertainty negatively affects the quotations of the national currency.
Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthens its position in the foreign exchange market. On Monday, Donald Trump confirmed his promise to carry out the tax reform, stating, "I would like it to be over in this calendar year". The leader of the Republican majority in the Senate, Mitch McConnel, supported Trump on this issue.
Today, after 14:00 (GMT), the price index for dairy products prepared by Global Dairy Trade will be published. Last time (two weeks ago) the index came out with a value of -2.4% (against the previous value of +0.9%). Dairy products – is one of the main exports of New Zealand, so the reduction in world prices for dairy products harms the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.
Published today, the consumer price index, although it came out better than the forecast, is in the middle of the target range of the central bank.
At a meeting in late September, the RB of New Zealand maintained the current interest rate at the current level of 1.75%. According to many economists, the RBNZ can return to consideration of the possibility of raising the rate in New Zealand not earlier than the second half of 2018.
In the US, further tightening of monetary policy is expected. Investors estimate the probability of a third rate increase this year around 90%, according to the CME Group. This supports the US dollar, as this increases the yield of US assets.
Thus, the fundamental factors are still on the side of the bears in relation to the NZD/USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Technical analysis
The third day, the NZD / USD pair makes an attempt to break through the strong resistance levels 0.7175 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.7195 (EMA144 on the day, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, weekly, monthly charts were deployed to short positions.
In case of breaking the nearest short-term support level 0.7144 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the decline will resume, and NZD / USD will go to support levels 0.7080 (EMA200 on the monthly chart), 0.7045 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart). The goal in case of further decline will be the support level of 0.6980 (the lows of July and November 2016). The break of 0.6860 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range between 0.7550 and 0.6860) will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and return to the downtrend.
An alternative scenario involves a return to the zone above the resistance level of 0.7195 and the resumption of growth in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which runs near the 0.7700 level. The growth targets in this case are the resistance levels of 0.7430 (September highs), 0.7550 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 50% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, here are the minimums of December 2016), 0.7700.
Support levels: 0.7144, 0.7080, 0.7045, 0.7000, 0.6980, 0.6860
Resistance levels: 0.7175, 0.7195, 0.7240, 0.7285

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7150. Stop-Loss 0.7210. Take-Profit 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6900
Buy Stop 0.7210. Stop-Loss 0.7150. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7285, 0.7300, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com