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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

This is a discussion on Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Trading Signal for XAU/USD for August 24 - 25, 2021 The daily chart of Gold shows that the metal is ...

      
   
  1. #1041
    Senior Member KostiaForexMart's Avatar
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    Trading Signal for XAU/USD for August 24 - 25, 2021

    The daily chart of Gold shows that the metal is trading within a downtrend channel which has been extending since May 14. Now it would be close to start a trend change, but the price has triple resistance where the top of the channel, the 200 EMA and the 6/8 line of murray converge (1,812).

    The gold market opened the week higher and XAU / USD rose from the level of 1,781, breaking the symmetrical triangle pattern (see the chart). Until the closure of the bullish candle on Monday at 1,804, this pattern could sustain momentum, so gold could rise to the zone of 1,812.

    This bullish momentum of yesterday occurred due to the weakness of the USDX which fell from the high of 93.71 (8/8 of murray). This level was predicted by us as we had already indicated it in the previous analysis. Now we believe that the USDX could make a correction to the 61.8% of Fibonacci and it will enable a new bullish momentum of gold.

    But first, gold should also make a technical correction, since it is showing overbought signs, facing extreme resistance at 1,812.

    We believe that the zone between 1,812 and 1,806 represents strong resistance and gold could fall to the 5/8 murray line located at 1,781 because the 200 EMA is a strong barrier which could prevent a bullish rally.

    On the contrary, if Gold breaks the key level of 1,812, the price will be free for a new bullish stage. So, the price could reach the area between 1,843 and 1,875, the level of 8/8 murray.

    Our outlook for now remains bearish because we are confident in the price action patterns. We can also add the eagle indicator on 4-hour charts. As the indicator has reached the 95 level, this signals an imminent technical correction.

    The reasonable trading idea is to sell at any level below 1,812 with targets at 1,781 and towards the pivot point of 4/8 Murray at 1,750. The eagle technical indicator, that measures the volume and the strength of the market, shows a signal of an imminent correction in the next few hours.

    Trading tip for XAU/USD (Gold) for August 24 - 25, 2021

    Sell below 1,812 (triple resistance), with take profit at 1,795 and 1,781 (5/8), stop loss above 1,818.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  2. #1042
    Senior Member KostiaForexMart's Avatar
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    Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on August 25

    Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

    Euro rose by 20 pips on Tuesday, thanks to the signal to buy that coincided with the MACD line being at the oversold area. Sadly, there was no further growth because the indicator was far away from zero in the afternoon.

    Surprisingly, the better-than-expected GDP data from Germany did not affect the market much yesterday. The speech of ECB member Isabel Schnabel was also practically ignored, as it did not concern monetary policy. But in the afternoon, euro's rally halted because of good data on US home sales.

    Most likely, the bullish move will continue provided that upcoming reports from Germany exceed expectations. But if the figures decline, EUR / USD will drop in price as well. Then, the scenario could escalate in the afternoon if US releases strong data on orders for durable goods.

    For long positions:

    Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1754 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1796. EUR / USD may climb higher if data from Germany exceeds expectations. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

    It is also possible to buy at 1.1733 and 1.1693, but the MACD indicator line must be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1754 and 1.1796.

    For short positions:

    Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1733 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1693. A decline will occur if Germany releases weak economic indicators and if the ECB takes a wait-and-see position on monetary policy. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

    It is also possible to sell at 1.1754 and 1.1796, but the MACD line must be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1733.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  3. #1043
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    Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on August 26

    Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

    Several market signals appeared in EUR / USD on Wednesday, but the first two had to be ignored because they came when the MACD line was far away from zero. Then, the next signal coincided with the indicator going to the overbought area, so traders were able to short euro by 20 pips. Following that was a signal to buy, which coincided with the MACD line being at the oversold area. This allowed traders to push the pair up also by 20 pips.

    Euro was under slight pressure because of the economic reports released yesterday. The data from IFO was just as expected, while other indicators were worse than the forecasts.

    There is a high chance that bearish pressure will continue today amid the ECB protocol and data on money supply. Reduced lending in the private sector could also provoke a decline, which may escalate if US releases a strong GDP report for the 2nd quarter. The speech of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium will also be decisive to the EUR / USD pair.

    For long positions:

    Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1779 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1834. EUR / USD may climb higher if GDP data from France and the whole Euro area exceed expectations. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

    It is also possible to buy at 1.1757 and 1.1708, but the MACD indicator line must be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1779 and 1.1834.

    For short positions:

    Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1757 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1708. A decline will occur if the Euro area releases weak economic indicators and if the ECB takes a wait-and-see position on monetary policy. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

    It is also possible to sell at 1.1779 and 1.1834, but the MACD line must be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1757.

    Trading Signal for USD/CAD for August 26 - 27, 2021: Buy above 1.2573 (EMA 200)

    On August 20, the USD / CAD pair peaked at 1.2948, the highest level since December 2020. Since that day, the pair has been making a correction and has finally reached the 200 EMA zone located at 1.2573.

    In a few days, the loonie has strengthened by more than 350 pips. The rally of oil prices of more than 600 pips from the low of 62.00 has given strength to the USD / CAD pair. Now it could be in a zone of a probable technical rebound.

    Investors are cautious and prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

    This event is an important factor for the currency market. So, it could be limiting the strength of the Canadian dollar, justifying some caution before positioning for any further movement.

    According to technical analysis, traders have the same sentiment on USD/CAD as we observe that the pair has found some support near the key support of the 200 EMA and has been bouncing above this level since yesterday.

    The 21 SMA located at 1.2658 is exerting some downward pressure. Therefore, a pullback towards this level will be a good opportunity to sell. A little higher is the 4/8 line of murray that has now become strong resistance.

    On the other hand, a break below 1.2573 (200 EMA) will open the possibility of a new bearish sequence that could reach the 2/8 murray support level located at 1.2451.

    The key point until Friday is to wait for a consolidation above the 200 EMA. Whenever there is a bounce at this level, it will be a good opportunity to buy with targets at 1.2695 and up to 1.2817.

    Buy above EMA 200 at 1.2573 with take profit at 1.2695 (4/8) and stop loss below 1.2538.

    Sell if the price makes a pullback 1.2695 (4/8) with take profit at 1.2630 and 1.2573 (3/8), stop loss above 1.2730.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  4. #1044
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    Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on August 27

    Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

    There was a signal to buy in EUR / USD in the morning, but traders had to ignore it because it came when the MACD line was at the overbought area. This resulted to euro dropping by another 20 pips, which, in turn, formed a signal to sell in the market. But since the MACD indicator was far away from zero, the pair did not go down much. Following that was another signal to buy, but it also did not result in a large movement.

    Obviously, the minutes of the July ECB meeting and data on money supply and lending did not affect the market much.

    And today, since there are no important macro statistics scheduled to be released, the market will most likely remain calm in the morning. But by afternoon Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will make a speech, which will be decisive to the EUR / USD pair. Data on German import price index and US income will most likely be ignored.

    For long positions:

    Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1770 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1800 (thicker green line on the chart). EUR / USD trade upwards if the Federal Reserve does not hint on future policy changes. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

    It is also possible to buy at 1.1750 and 1.1708, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1770 and 1.1800.

    For short positions:

    Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1750 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1708. A decline will occur if US releases strong economic reports and if the Fed indicates potential changes in the monetary policy. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

    It is also possible to sell at 1.1770 and 1.1800, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1750.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  5. #1045
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on August 30, 2021

    Bankers' symposium in Jackson Hole ended on Saturday. The much anticipated speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell only confirmed the general line of the central bank, regardless of the intentions of the hawks (Bostic, Kaplan, Harker, Mester) to announce plans to start phasing out QE in September, to begin this phase out in December, and to raise the rate at the earliest. Next year. The main thing that investors took from Powell's speech was a signal of a later rate hike than other central banks, including the European Central Bank, would do. Powell paid a lot of attention to inflation, confirming the thesis about its temporary surge, but, briefly paying tribute to the good growth of the labor market, noted that the pandemic could weaken this growth, which, in our opinion, gives room for maneuver. We suspect that labor data released on September 3 will already come out worse than forecast (unemployment is expected to decrease from 5.4% to 5.2% and non-farm in 728,000).

    The price goes above the balance indicator line on the daily scale chart, the Marlin oscillator is growing, the target at 1.1835/47 remains, overcoming this range opens the second target at 1.1920.

    The growth continues as usual on the four-hour chart: the price is above the indicator lines, Marlin turned up after the discharge (correction) on the 26th.

    Forecast for GBP/USD on August 30, 2021

    The pound, after creating a local low on August 20, has formed a new upward price channel, starting from the March 2020 low. The Marlin oscillator has moved into the zone of positive values, into the zone of an upward trend, now we expect the price to continue to rise to the nearest embedded line of the price channel around 1.3858 (the level coincides with the lows of March 2, April 27). The closest resistance is the MACD indicator line at 1.3798, which coincides with May 2021's low.

    The price settled above the indicator lines on the H4 chart, above the intermediate target level of 1.3747, gathering strength before the attack at 1.3798.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  6. #1046
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    Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 31, 2021

    August 31 economic calendar:

    Today, the UK lending market data will be published at 8:30 Universal time, where not everything is so bad according to forecasts. The main event today is considered to be the publication of preliminary inflation estimates in Europe, which could grow from 2.2% to 2.7%. Such an intense rise in consumer prices scares investors since this situation requires immediate action from the European Central Bank, which is still doing nothing. At the same time, the regulator does not even give hints about a change in the course of monetary policy, which puts even more pressure on the market due to complete uncertainty.

    In such a situation, speculators appear, where the growth of inflation can be won back by the market both by a local decrease and by growth in the value of the euro. This does not exclude local surges in the market.

    From the point of view of fundamental analysis, inflation growth is a positive signal for the national currency, but when consumer prices rise faster than forecast, this is not considered the best signal.

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on August 31:

    The ascending inertial move has already led to the fact that the euro is overbought in the market.

    In this situation, two possible scenarios can be considered:

    The first one comes from the downward cycle from the beginning of June, where the current correction is already at the limit of possibilities. This can lead to the early completion of growth and the resumption of the downward cycle. This forecast will be confirmed if the price is held below 1.1800, which will open the way towards 1.1760-1.1700.

    The second scenario considers an inertial move, where speculators are not stopped by an overbought signal. This leads to a movement towards the level of 1.1900.

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on August 31:

    The resistance level of 1.3800 is still putting pressure on buyers, which may lead to a reduction in the volume of long positions. If the price rebounds from the resistance level, a movement may occur towards the level of 1.3735.

    An alternative scenario of the market development will arise if the price is kept above the level of 1.3830. This could jeopardize the downside cycle from 1.4000.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  7. #1047
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    Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 1

    Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

    There was a signal to buy in EUR / USD on Tuesday, but it had to be ignored because the MACD line was far away from zero. After some time though the indicator hit the overbought area, so bearish traders were able to open short positions. This provoked a 30-pip decline in the market. There were no other signals for the rest of the day.

    Surprisingly, even though the data released yesterday exceeded expectations, EUR / USD did not undergo large movements. Only the report on US consumer confidence led to a slight surge in volatility.

    Another report will come from Germany and the Euro area today, but it is unlikely to shake the market. Then, in the afternoon, there will be data on US manufacturing and employment, followed by speeches from Fed representatives.

    For long positions:

    Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1818 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1849 (thicker green line on the chart). EUR / USD trade upwards if economic data from Germany and the Euro area exceed expectations. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

    It is also possible to buy at 1.1796 and 1.1765, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1818 and 1.1849.

    For short positions:

    Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1796 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1765. A decline will occur if the Euro area reports weak manufacturing activity and employment. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

    It is also possible to sell at 1.1818 and 1.1849, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1796.

    Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

    There were several market signals in GBP / USD yesterday. But the first one, which was to sell, had to be ignored because the MACD line was at the oversold area. Following that was a signal to buy, which successfully provoked a 20-pip increase. Then, another signal to sell appeared in the afternoon and this time, it finally coincided with the MACD line moving down from zero. As a result, bearish traders were able to open short positions, which led to a 30-pip decline in the market.

    Surprisingly, UK data on lending and money supply did not affect the market in any way, and only the report on US consumer confidence led to a surge in volatility.

    Today, an interesting report on UK manufacturing activity is coming out, which may put even more pressure on pound. Then, in the afternoon, there will be data on US manufacturing and employment, followed by speeches from Fed representatives.

    For long positions:

    Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3761 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3810 (thicker green line on the chart). The pair will continue moving up if there are strong PMI reports. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

    It is also possible to buy at 1.3727 and 1.3679, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3761 and 1.3810.

    For short positions:

    Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3727 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3679. A decline will occur if UK releases very weak data on manufacturing activity. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

    The pair could also be sold at 1.3761 and 1.3810, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3727 and 1.3679.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  8. #1048
    Senior Member KostiaForexMart's Avatar
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    Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 2, 2021

    Sept 2 economic calendar:

    The weekly data on applications for US unemployment benefits will be released at 12:30 Universal time today, where they predict a decrease in their volume. This may support the US dollar if expectations coincide.

    Details of statistics:

    The volume of initial applications for benefits may fall from 353 thousand to 345 thousand.

    The volume of repeated applications for benefits may fall from 2 862 thousand to 2 775 thousand.

    Therefore, a decline in the number of applications for benefits may lead to a strengthening of the national currency – USD.

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 2:

    Euro's high overbought level does not stop speculators, who continue to form a correction from this year's base.

    In this case, one should trade on both sides.

    Sell positions come from a downtrend that is relevant in the market. In this case, the first entry into the market may occur if the price pulls back from the correction maximum with a target of 1.1800.

    Sell positions are considered to maintain an inertial course in the market, when speculators ignore the overbought status. In this case, the maximum possible growth of the euro is the level of 1.1900.

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 2:

    It can be assumed here that the sideways movement within the range of 1.3730/1.380 will remain on the market for some time. Now, it is worth preparing for the upcoming acceleration, trading by the method of breaking through a particular border.

    Buy positions can be considered if the price is kept above the level of 1.3800.

    Sell positions can be considered if the price is kept below the level of 1.3725.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  9. #1049
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    Forecast for GBP/USD on September 3, 2021

    The British pound gained 63 points yesterday, close to the first target level of 1.3858 (2 March low). Such a breakthrough was necessary for the price to overcome the accumulation of indicator lines, which were strong resistance on Tuesday and Wednesday. And if the overcoming of the resistance took place on a strong impulse, then we are waiting for the price to surpass the nearest level and rise to the second at around 1.3883 - to the embedded line of the growing price channel. Surpassing 1.3883 opens the way to the high target of 1.4004 - this is the point of coincidence of the next line of the price channel with the level of highs on March 12 and 18 and April 20.

    On the H4 chart, the price left the wedge-shaped structure upwards. The MACD line is turning up, the Marlin oscillator is growing in the positive trend zone. We are waiting for the pound to rise further.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  10. #1050
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on September 6, 2021

    Friday's US employment data came out so that both optimists and pessimists were satisfied; in the non-agricultural sector, 235,000 new jobs were created against expectations of 750,000, and the unemployment rate decreased from 5.4% to the projected 5.2%, while the July non-farms were revised up from 943,000 to 1,053,000( +110,000), which probably affected the euro's final insignificant growth by 10 points. Of course, this data will still be further analyzed by market participants and gradually included in prices, but at the current moment, perhaps, a more important event is on the agenda - the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, September 9. The main European bank is expected to signal to the markets that it is time to think hard about tightening monetary policy.

    At the moment, the euro is in a convenient range (1.1847-1.1920), in which there have been short-term consolidations since mid-June. The 1.1920 target level seems to be strong, a good external stimulus is necessary to overcome it, which will not happen today due to the holiday in the US (Labor Day).

    The price has formed a double divergence with the Marlin oscillator on the four-hour chart, which may return the price to the lower border of the 1.1847-1.1920 range. Perhaps the price will correct even lower, to the MACD line to the 1.1818 mark area, which coincides in price level with the MACD line on the daily scale. After the correction, we expect the euro to continue rising. Target at 1.1975.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

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