Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex NZD/USD: general review

Current trend

New Zealand dollar grew against USD during trading on Tuesday supported by the growth of prices for dairy products by 0.3% (the highest in the last three months) and reduced returns on US state bonds. US markets opened after a holiday, and a number of important macroeconomic releases is planned for the current week. Investors are concerned that the concequences of Harvey storm may lead to the fall of economic indicators in the short term whic may influence the Fed's decision on the possible increase of interest rates this year. Potential nuclear crisis in North Korea also has a negative impact on the rate of the US currency.
Today traders have to pay special attention *to the release of data on Markit PMI changes and services PMI by ISM.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7185, 0.7160, 0.7130.
Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7280, 0.7300, 0.7330.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the level of 0.7260 with target at 0.7330 and stop-loss at 0.7220.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7200 with targets at 0.7150 and stop-loss at 0.7230.
The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

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LiteForex USD/JPY: Murrey analysis

On the D1 chart the price is around the level of 109.37 (main support) — 108.59 (extreme support). The zone seems quite strong as the pair has been testing it in vain since April. Currently the price is approaching the cyclical line near which it may reverse upwards. In this case the growth of the price may continue through a number of levels (110.15 and 110.93 ) to the lower border of horizontal channel 111.71 (bottom of the channel). The continuation of the fall is possible if the price consolidates below 108.59 . In this case the pair may decrease to 107.81 (final resistance) and 106.25 (for W1 chart). Technical indicators show the possibility of the fall but in limited scope. Stochastic is directed downwards but has approached the oversold area. MACD histogram shows indicators of bearish divergence, the occurrence of which will open the way to purchases. *

Support and resistance

Support levels: 108.59 (extreme support), 107.81 (final support), 106.25 (rotation and reversal in W1).
Resistance levels: 109.37 (main support), 110.15 (stop, reversal), 110.93 (rotation, reversal), 111.71 (bottom of the channel).

Trading tips

In the current situation buy positions may be opened at the level above109.37 or in case of a turn around 108.59 with targets at 110.15, 110.98, 111.71 and stop-losses at 109.00 and 108.30. Short positions can be opened if the price consolidates below 108.59 with targets at 107.81, 106.25 and stop-loss at 109.00.

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LiteForex XAU/USD: gold is updating record-setting maximums

Current trend

Gold prices have updated 1-year record-setting maximums after the release of disappointing data on the dynamics of jobless claims in the USA and after ECB kept the interest rate on the previous level.
A report published yesterday showed the growth of initial jobless claims from 235K to 298K, while the analysts expected them to grow only to 241K. The number of repeated claims reduced more than expected: from 1.945 mln to 1.940 mln against the outlook of growth to 1.950 mln.
ECB press conference was neutral. The head of the regulator Mario Draghi pointed out that economic growth forecasts in the region remained unchanged and inflation expectations had not changed as well.


Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate stable increase. The price range is actively widening. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic has reached maximum values and reversed horizontally.
Resistance levels: 1355.48, 1366.99, 1374.93.
Support levels: 1350.00, 1343.98, 1330.60, 1325.65.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the level of 1355.48 with target at 1374.93 and stop-loss at 1340.00. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Short positions may be opened from the levels of 1350.00, 1343.98 with targets at 1316.03 and stop-loss at 1365.00. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.




Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

LiteForex Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Last Friday the price of Brent oil reduced after the announcement of intermediary results of assessment of the damage caused by Harvey storm. The launch of operation of refineries in the Gulf of Mexico reduced the investors' concerns about a serious crisis in the US oil industry. The market reacted to this news by fixing profits in long positions which put additional pressure on the trading instrument. Moreover, according to EAI information, weekly reserves of crude oil in the USA increased by 4.6 mln barrels. At the same time gas prices have dropped, as the majority of the Americans decided to limit the use of personal cars due to Irma storm.

No important macroeconomic data able to have considerably impact on the dynamics of the trading instrument are due today. Tomorrow attention should be paid to the release of the API report on oil stocks in the USA.

Support and resistance

On D1 chart the pair is trading in the upper part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed to the side, and the price range is widening, indicating the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in positive zone, keeping the signal for the opening of long positions. Stochastic has left the overbought zone and formed a strong sell signal.

Support levels: 50.65, 51.65, 52.50, 53.40.
Resistance levels: 54.40, 55.35, 56.30.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the current price with targets at 54.80, 55.30 and stop-loss at 53.20. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

Short positions may be opened from the level of 53.35 with targets at 52.45 and stop-loss at 53.60. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.




Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

LiteForex USD/JPY: calmness in North Korea caused the growth of the pair

Current trend

The pair started the week with considerable growth connected with the release of tension in the Korean Peninsula.

Investors waited for new missile tests on September 9, but Pyohgyang refused from provocative actions. On the other hand, on Monday the UN Security Council imposed a number of new sanctions on North Korea except for the most notable embargo on oil supply. This was also considered a positive action by the market. As a result, risk appetites returned to the market and by now let the pair reach the level of 109.70. Recent data on machine building orders (the volume of which reduced by 7.5% YoY in July) also put pressure on yen.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair has increased above the gathering of Fibo correction at 109.00 and is aiming at 110.00 (Fibo correction 38.2%, Murrey level [6/8]) to the area of the upper border of the downward channel. Breaking through this level will open a way for growth to 110.85 (Fibo correction 50.0%, Murrey level [8/8]). In case of reversal of the price around the level of 110.00 possible targets of the "bears" will be the levels of 109.00 (gathering of Fibo corrections), 108.60 (middle line of Bollinger Bands, Murrey level [2/8]) and 107.80 (Murrey level [0/8]). Technical indicators generally show growth but do not exclude the beginning of correction. Bollinger Bands are reversing upwards, and MACD histogram grows in the positive zone. Stochastic is in the overbought area but may leave it forming a sell signal.

Support levels: 109.00, 108.60, 108.20, 107.80.
Resistance levels: 110.00, 110.55, 110.85.

Trading tips

In the current situation long positions should be opened at the current price with targets at 110.00, 110.55, 110.85 and stop-loss at 109.40.
Short positions should be opened below the level of 109.00 or in case of reversal near 110.00 with targets at 108.60, 108.20, 107.80 and stop-loss at 109.40 and 110.40.



Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

LiteForex XAG/USD: silver dynamics is mixed

Current trend

During trading session on Tuesday, September, 12, silver prices insignificantly grew and stepped off the local minimum since the beginning of the month. The instrument is trying to enter the upward correction after downward gap opening on Monday due to the fall of the market demand on shelter assets after DPRK refused to test missiles last weekend, which helped to release the tense upon the North Korea situation.
On Wednesday, September, 13, the investors are waiting for Producer Price Index publication at 14:30 (GMT+2) in the USA. The MoM value is expected to grow by 0.3% MoM after the fall by 0.1% MoM in the previous month. In addition, the Monthly Budget Statement will be published at 20:00 (GMT+2) in the USA.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are steady growing. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the appearance of the controversial trade dynamic this week. It’s better to use the channel trading strategy.
MACD is going down, keeping weakening sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to wait until the signal is clear, as current readings are uninformative.

Stochastic has reached the border of the oversold area and reversed into flat, reacting to the attempt of correctional growth in the beginning of the week. It’s better to wait until the situation is clear and the indicator reverses fully.
Resistance levels: 17.87, 18.00, 18.17.
Support levels: 17.66, 17.53, 17.38, 17.27, 17.16.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the levels of 17.87 or 18.00. Take profit is 18.20–18.30. Stop loss is 17.80–17.70. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

The alternative is the return of strong “bearish” trend after the breakdown of the level of 17.66. In this case it’s better to open short positions with the target around 17.30. Stop loss is 17.90. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

LiteForex XAU/USD: gold price is going down

Current trend

During the trading session on Wednesday, September, 13, gold prices significantly went down and renewed the lows since the beginning of the month due to the preliminary information that Trumps’ Administration is ready to make public the awaited tax reform. According to unconfirmed reports, the details of the new plan can be disclosed next week.
During the morning session in September, 14, the “bearish” moods prevail. The instrument is pressed by the poor Chinese macroeconomical statistics: Industrial Production in China slowed from +6.4% YoY to +6.0% YoY in August, while the analysts expected the fastening to +6.6% YoY. The growth of Retail Sales fell from +10.4% YoY to +10.1% YoY, which is also worse than expected value of +10.5% YoY.
On Thursday the investors are waiting for the August consumer inflation data in the USA. The traders hope that the statistics will clear the perspectives of further monetary policy tightening.


Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into flat. The price range is actively narrowing, reflecting the change of the trend in the short term. It’s better to use channel trading strategy.
MACD is going down, keeping strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to keep current short positions, but wait to the clear signals to appear before opening new ones.
Stochastic has reached the limit in the oversold area and reversed into flat. The readings of the indicators reflect the correctional growth appearance in the end of the week. It’s better to close profitable short positions.
Resistance levels: 1325.65, 1334.32, 1343.98, 1350.00, 1357.15.
Support levels: 1316.03, 1307.75, 1300.44, 1291.71.


Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the reversal around 1316.03. Take profit is 1334.32 or 1343.98. Stop loss is 1312.00. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
Steady breakdown 1316.03 can be a signal to open short positions with the target around 1300.00. Stop loss is 1328.50. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

LiteForex AUD/USD: the pair is showing mixed dynamics

Current trend

Australian dollar moderately grew against USD as a result of trading on Thursday, September 14, moving away from local minimums since September 5. The reason for the growth of AUD was positive data on the Australian labor market in August. The level of employment in August grew by 54.2K workplaces against 29.2K last month. Analysts expected to see a decrease to 15.0K.

More serious growth was prevented by quite stable US currency that receive support from strong consumer inflation data on Thursday. In August CPI grew by 1.9% YoY after growth by 1.7% in July. Experts expected growth to make up 1.8% YoY.

On Friday, September 15, investors expected the release of the data on retail sales and industrial output in the USA at 14:30 and 15:00 (GMT+2) respectively. If this block of data also appears to be better than expected, USD may finish the week with growth.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands have reversed horizontally. The price range remains practically unchanged. MACD is going down preserving a moderate sell signal (being located under the signal line). Stochastic has approached the border of the oversold area and reversed horizontally reacting to growth attempts on Thursday.
Resistance levels: 0.7994, 0.8015, 0.8042, 0.8064, 0.8080.
Support levels: 0.7978, 0.7954, 0.7917, 0.7889, 0.7865.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after breaking through the level of 0.8015 with target at 0.8080, 0.8100 and stop-loss at 0.7970. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
A breakdown of the level of 0.7978 or 0.7954 may be a signal for further sales with target at 0.7889 and stop-loss at 0.8020. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

LiteForex EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

On Friday after the release of negative data on retail sales (-0.2%) and industrial output volume (-0.9%) in the USA the price of the pair rose to 1.1985 but then was corrected and is currently trading near the middle line of Bollinger Bands at 1.1940. Currently investors are cautious waiting for the results of the Fed's meeting on Wednesday. Therefore the pair may remain within the range of 1.1920-1.1980 in the near future.

In view of the upcoming meeting of the Fed European statistics is considered less important. Here attention should be paid to the release of final August inflation data from Eurozone. The values of CPI and its basic variant are still far from target levels and make up 1.5% and 1.3% respectively. Business sentiment index by ZEW is due tomorrow. The indicator may grow from 10,0 to 12.5 points for Germany and from 29.3 to 32.4 points for Eurozone. In this case the price will continue to grow to the upper border of the range.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair has tested the middle line of Bollinger Bands around the level of 1.1920 and may soon reach 1.1980. However, serious growth to the levels of 1.2025 and 1.2090 may happen only after the price consolidates above 1.1980. Breaking down the level of 1.1920 (middle line of Bollinger Bands) will open the way for further decrease to the lower line of Bollinger Bands at 1.1855 and further to 1.1800. Technical indicators show growth: MACD histogram is about to move to the positive zone and to form a buy signal, and Stochastic is reversing upwards.
Support levels: 1.1920, 1.1855, 1.1800.
Resistance levels: 1.1980, 1.2025, 1.2090.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current price with targets at 1.1980, 1.2025 and stop-loss at 1.1920.1.1920.
Short position may be opened in case the price reverses around the level of 1.1980 or breaks down the level of 1.1920 with target at 1.1855 and stop-losses at 1.2010 and 1.1950.

LiteForex Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

As a result of trading during the previous week the price of Brent oil grew approaching maximums of April 2016. US refineries resume operations after Harvey and Irma storms. Moreover, investors became optimistic after the news about the reduction of drilling activity in the USA. Also Brent continues to receive support from IEA that increased the outlook of global demand for 2017 from 1.5 to 1.6 mln barrels a day.

The trading instrument shows mixed dynamics formed in view of expected Fed's decision on the key interest rate. The demand for high-risk assets dropped. Along with this, according to an OPEC report, the oversupply of oil in the world market is reducing, and soon the cartel and other member states will discuss the extension of the global oil pact.

A key event of the week will be the announcement of the Fed's decision on the monetary policy on Wednesday. Today attention should be paid to API report on the level of oil and petrochemicals stocks in the USA.

Support and resistance

On D1 chart the pair is growing along the upper Bollinger Band. The indicator is directed upwards while the price range has widened indicating the preservation of the upward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping a strong buy signal. Stochastic is about to leave the overbought area.

Support levels: 55.00, 54.30, 53.55, 52.80.
Resistance levels: 55.75, 56.10, 56.65, 57.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the current price with target at 56.30 and stop-loss at 54.80. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 54.75 with target at 53.95 and stop-loss at 55.05. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.