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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
The pair weakened to the level of 1.2170, where it is now trading, waiting for European regulator’s decision.
In the absence of significant economic statistics releases, investors are preparing for the ECB meeting, which will be held on Thursday. Interest rate change is not expected. Moreover, regarding the recent weak economic data on inflation, retail sales and industrial production in the Eurozone, the regulator can delay the curtailment of the QE program. In these conditions, more attention will be paid to the text of the accompanying statement and the press conference of Mario Draghi, who may hint at further steps of the ECB.
Chinese-American trade conflict is developing. According to The Wall Street Journal, another smartphones producer in China, Huawei, can be limited in US accessories supplies and be prohibited from Android software. Earlier ZTE was limited this way, but Beijing did not respond yet.
Support and resistance
The technical picture is mixed. The price has left the main Murray trade range and has fallen below the level of 1.2207 (Murray [0/8]), which reflects the possibility of a correction to the levels of 1.2268 (Murray [1/8]) and 1.2329 (Murray [2/8]). Stochastic confirms it, reversing upwards in the oversold area. However, the growth of MACD in the negative zone and the downward reversal of Bollinger Bands reflect the development of the downward trend to the level of 1.2085 (Murray [–2/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.2207, 1.2268, 1.2329.
Support levels: 1.2146, 1.2085.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2207 with the targets at 1.2268, 1.2329 and stop loss around 1.2170.
Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.2146 with the target at 1.2085 and stop loss near the level of 1.2180.
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LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general analysis
Current trend
Last week, oil prices were trading within the range of 74.21–72.65 (Murray [7/8]–[5/8]).
US Administration is giving controversial signals. At the end of the last week, in his Twitter, Donald Trump claimed, that the US would not accept artificially overpriced oil, which has led to the correction. However, this week American President claimed that he was intended to terminate the nuclear deal with Iran and imply new sanction against the third largest OPEC exporter. The execution of the plans will deprive the oil market of a great share of supply in a short term, which will support the prices. Iran is already having problems with sales. Companies would not make Iranian oil and petroleum products supply contracts, valid later than May, 12. The date is the deadline for the USA to make decisions on the new sanctions.
Macroeconomic background is negative. According to API, US oil resources grew by 1.099 million barrel this week, according to EIA – by 2.170 million barrel. As the prices consolidated above the level of 70 USD per barrel, US shale oil producers are increasing the production. Today, Baker Hughes Rig Count will be published. Last week the number was 820 units.
Support and resistance
Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Stochastic is pointed downwards. MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Bollinger Bands are directed horizontally. The price is expected to move within the sideways channel.
Support levels: 73.43, 72.65, 71.87.
Resistance levels: 74.21, 75.00, 75.78.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened below the level of 73.43 with the targets at 72.65, 72.00 and stop loss 73.70.
Long positions can be opened at the level of 73.70 with the targets at 74.21, 75.00 and stop loss near the level of 73.40.
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LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review
Current trend
The British currency is under pressure of negative data on GDP in the UK in Q1. In quarterly terms, the indicator decreased from 0.4% to 0.1%, and in the annual one - from 1.4% to 1.2%. Thus, the negative data for GDP was added to the latest negative data on industrial production, the growth of wages, inflation and retail sales, and now investors see fewer chances of raising the interest rate by the Bank of England at the next May meeting.
Additional pressure on the Pound was caused by changes in the UK government. On Monday, Sajid Javid was appointed as the new Home Secretary, who is, unlike his predecessor Amber Rudd, a Eurosceptic supporting country’s departure from the European Union. His appointment shifts the balance in Theresa May’s cabinet towards Brexit supporters, which could complicate and protract the negotiations.
Support and resistance
At present, the price remains in the region of 1.3720 and has the potential to fall further, especially if data on the Markit Manufacturing PMI for April, which is due on Tuesday, comes out weak (the index is expected to decline from 55.1 to 54.8 points). In this case, the price could reach the levels of 1.3549 (Murray [-1/8]) and 1.3427 (Murray [-2/8]). A breakout of the level of 1.3793 (Murray [1/8]) could lead to a growth towards the levels of 1.3916 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.4038 (Murray [3/8], middle MA of the Bollinger Bands).
Support levels: 1.3671, 1.3549, 1.3427.
Resistance levels: 1.3793, 1.3916, 1.4038.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3671 with targets at 1.3549, 1.3427 and stop-loss at 1.3710. Validity – 5-7 days.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3793 with targets at 1.3916, 1.4038 and stop-loss at 1.3750. Validity – 5-7 days.
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LiteForex analitics. FTSE: technical analysis
FTSE, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is growing along the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI keeps growing, having entered the overbought zone. The Composite is trying to turn down, substantially diverging with the price dynamics.
FTSE, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is testing the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is growing as well, having broken out its longer MA.
Key levels
Support levels: 7480.0 (local lows), 7435.0 (local lows), 7377.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 7595.0 (June 2017 highs), 7645.0 (local highs), 7700.0 (December 2017 highs).
Trading tips
The price is approaching a strong resistance near 7595.0. There is a chance of a downward reverse, while its breakout would lead to a growth continuation.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 7600.0 with targets at 7645.0, 7700.0 and stop-loss at 7570.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 7480.0 with targets at 7435.0, 7377.0 and stop-loss at 7515.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
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LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review
Current trend
Oil quotes show mixed dynamics.
After growing at the beginning of the week related to Iran's accusations of secretly developing nuclear weapons, they drastically corrected to 72.20 mark. On Wednesday, the instrument was under pressure from the EIA weekly report on US oil reserves. According to the release, the stock of crude oil increased by 6.218 million barrels, significantly exceeding forecasts. Gasoline stocks also rose by 1.171 million barrels instead of the expected reduction. The volume of oil production in the US reached 10.619 million barrels per day.
At present, investors are focused on the development of the situation surrounding the Iran nuclear deal: Donald Trump intends to leave it and introduce new sanctions. Representatives of the Islamic Republic said that in this case the agreement would lose its meaning and enrichment of uranium in Iran could be resumed, which would undoubtedly lead to increased tensions in the region and support for oil prices. Trump defined May 12 as the deadline for the final decision on the nuclear deal.
Support and resistance
Currently, the price tends to the level of 71.87 (Murray [6/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands). In its breakdown, the decline may continue to 70.30 (Murray [5/8]) and 68.75 (Murray [4/8]) marks. However, Stochastic approaching the oversold zone suggests a possible beginning of growth to the levels of 75.00 (Murray [7/8]) and 76.56 (Murray [8/8]).
Support levels: 71.87, 70.30, 68.75.
Resistance levels: 73.43, 75.00, 75.56.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened below the level of 71.87 with targets at 70.30, 68.75 and stop-loss at 72.40.
Long positions may be opened above the level of 73.43 with the target at 75.00 and stop-loss at 73.00.
Implementation time: 5-7 days.
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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review
Current trend
This week, the pair dropped to the area of the lower border of the main trading range to the level of 1.1962 ([0/8]), where it is still traded.
The American currency is affected by the number of contradicting factors. On the one hand, it is pressured by the results of the Fed meeting. The interest rate remained unchanged at the previous level of 1.75% while in the statement investors didn’t see any hints on an acceleration of the pace of its increases. At the same time, it was noted that inflation is close to its target level of 2.0%, economic risks are balanced, and the current state of the economy assumes further rate hikes. On the other hand, the Dollar is supported by a start of negotiations between the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Vice Premier of China Liu He in Beijing. Direct negotiations between officials of their status give investors room for optimism, though experts warn not to expect immediate results.
Today the market is waiting for the publication of April data on the American labor market. Unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 4.1% to 4.0%, and the number of non-farm jobs to increase from 103K to 192K.
Support and resistance
The technical picture is uncertain. Bollinger Bands diverge, confirming the downtrend, and MACD histogram grows in the negative zone, indicating that the decline may continue to 1.1900 and 1.1840 marks. However, one cannot exclude an upward correction to 1.2085 and 1.2146 marks.
Support levels: 1.1962, 1.1900, 1.1840.
Resistance levels: 1.2023, 1.2085, 1.2146.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened from 1.1950 mark with targets at 1.1900, 1.1840 and stop-loss at 1.2000.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2023 with targets of 1.2085, 1.2146 and the stop-loss at 1.1980.
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LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: Murray analysis
On the daily chart, the price is trying to consolidate above the level of 75.00 ([8/8]). In this case, the price can grow to the levels of 76.56 ([+1/8]) and 78.12 ([+2/8]). Technical indicators are still reflecting the development of growth, Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are pointed upwards, and MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone.
However, the level of 75.00 is the upper border of the main trading Murray range, so the beginning of the downward correction to the levels of 73.43 ([7/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), and 71.87 ([6/8]) is possible.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 73.43 ([7/8]), 71.87 ([6/8]).
Support levels: 75.78 ([+2/8], H4), 76.56 ([+1/8]), 78.12 ([+2/8]).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the level of 75.78 with the targets at 76.56, 78.12 and stop loss around 75.20.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 74.60 with the targets at 73.43, 71.87 and stop loss near the level of 75.00.
Implementation period: 5–7 days.
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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review
Current trend
The pair continues to decline for the third consecutive week and today has reached its lowest level since December at 1.1870 mark.
EUR is crushed by weak data on GDP, inflation, and retail sales in the Eurozone. USD is supported by the expectation that the Fed will continue to raise the interest rate.
Today, the market is focused on the statements of American politicians. At the conference in Switzerland, the Fed head Jerome Powell noted that the market has already received a signal about intention to increase rates and should no longer be surprised at these actions. In the evening, President Trump should announce his decision on the Iranian nuclear deal. Experts believe that the US will withdraw from the agreement. Then, new sanctions may be introduced or the parties may try to conclude a new treaty. Other participants - France, Britain, and Iran - are strongly opposed to unilateral actions by the US, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that the termination of the agreement would be a historical mistake. Breaking the deal could put pressure on USD and substantially support oil prices.
Support and resistance
The instrument tends to 1.1840 mark (Murray [-2/8]) and, in its breakdown, can continue the decline to 1.1780 (Murray [1/8], H4) and 1.1715 (Murray [8/8], W1) marks. With a reverse breakout of 1.1900 mark (Murray [-1/8]), an upward correction 1.1962 (Murray [0/8]) 1.2023 (Murray [1/8]) and 1.2085 (Murray [2/8]) marks is likely to develop.
Support levels: 1.1840, 1.1780, 1.1715.
Resistance levels: 1.1962, 1.2023, 1.2085.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened below 1.1840 with targets at 1.1780, 1.1715 and stop-loss at 1.1880.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.1910 with targets at 1.1962, 1.2023 and the stop-loss at 1.1870.
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LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: general analysis
Current trend
During the week, oil prices were growing and now are trading around 71.50 after EIA Crude Oil Stocks change release on Wednesday, which decreased more than expected, by 2.197 million barrel. Gas resources decreased by 2.055 million barrel and distillates – by 6.674 million barrel.
The investors are focused on Iran. After America left Iranian nuclear agreement, the traders expect Trump administration to imply sanctions, which can significantly restrict Iranian oil export. Now it is the third OPEC country, which shares 4% of the world oil market and exports 3.8 million barrel per day. US sanctions can make a shortage in the market, which can be used by competitors. Saudi Arabia can increase the production: its representatives have stated they would cooperate with “black gold” consumers to minimize the effect form Iranian oil supply decrease. Iranian quota within OPEC+ Agreement can be redistributed. The Organization plans to discuss it at the end of the month. US shale oil producers can increase its part, too.
Support and resistance
The key “bullish” level if 71.87 (Murray [8/8]), the breakout of which will let the price grow to the levels of 72.65 (Murray [+1/8]) and 73.43 (Murray [+2/8]). However, the reversal of Stochastic in the overbought area allows the development of the correction to the levels of 70.31 (Murray [6/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 69.53 (Murray [5/8]).
Resistance levels: 71.87, 72.65, 73.43.
Support levels: 71.09, 70.30, 69.53.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened above the level of 71.87 with the targets at 72.65, 73.43 and stop loss near the level of 71.50.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 71.09 with the targets at 70.30, 68.75 and stop loss 71.50.
Implementation period: 5–7 days.
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LiteForex analitics. AUD/USD: Murrey analysis
On D1 chart, the instrument rebounded from the 0.7446 mark ([5/8]) and approaches the level of 0.7568 ([6/8]) near the midline of Bollinger Bands. It is seen as the key for "bulls", its breakout can lead to an increase to the area of 0.7690 ([7/8]) and 0.7812 ([8/8]) marks. Otherwise, the price may return to the May lows in the area of 0.7446 and fall below the level of 0.7324 ([4/8], the center of the trading range). Technical indicators generally allow growth: Stochastic is directed upwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 0.7446 ([5/8]), 0.7324 ([4/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.7568 ([6/8]), 0.7690 ([7/8]), 0.7812 ([8/8]).
Trading tips
Long positions may be opened when consolidating above the 0.7568 mark and the midline of Bollinger Bands with targets of 0.7690, 0.7812 and stop-loss at 0.7520.
Short positions may be opened if the instrument is reversed in the area of 0.7568 from the 0.7510 mark with targets at 0.7446, 0.7324 and stop-loss at 0.7560.
Implementation time: 5-7 days.
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