Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex: EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Today the pair continued to grow and exceeded the level of 1.2359 (Murray [5/8], H4).
The USA President Donald Trump tried to calm the market down, saying in his Twitter, that China will make concessions, that intellectual property deal will be made, and a beautiful future expects both of the counties. However, the investors have some doubts, as US Administration is preparing the new list of Chinese goods to be taxed. Chinese authorities have mentioned many times, that they did not want a trading war but will defend government interests to the last.
At the beginning of the week, there was reported that USA-China trade negotiations were deadlocked due to Washington's demand Beijing to stop the subsidizing of the industrial sectors within the program “Made in China 2025”, as there can be used technologies, taken from US companies. Earlier Chinese authorities were ready to decrease US trade deficit by 50 billion through the import of liquefied gas, agricultural product, and luxury items.

Support and resistance

The price is tending to the level of 1.2390 (Murray [3/8]), and in case of the breakout can grow to the levels of 1.2451 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.2512 (Murray [5/8]). However, the area of 1.2390–1.2451 is at the border of the middle term trade range, which reflects the possibility of a reversal and decrease to the levels of 1.2329 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.2207 (Murray [0/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.2390, 1.2451, 1.2512.
Support levels: 1.2329, 1.2207.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2390 with the targets at 1.2451, 1.2512 and stop loss around 1.2360.
Short positions can be opened after the reversal of the price around the level 1.2390 with the targets at 1.2329, 1.2207 and stop loss around 1.2410.

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Oil prices reached its highs since 2014 around the level of 70.85.
Firstly, the growth of the tense in the Middle East supports the prices. US missile attack on Syria and the possible Russian answer can lead to unpredictable consequences. Unconfirmed reports indicate that insurgents of Yemen have attacked the oil-producing infrastructure of Saudi Arabia company Saudi Aramco for the first time. Secondly, the investors were positive upon the lowering of the tone of the rhetoric of President Trump and General Secretary Xi Jinping, which gives hope for the settlement of USA-China trade dispute. Lastly, EIA decreased this year’s US oil production forecast to 1.37 million barrel per day instead of 1.38 million barrel per day, predicted earlier.
As a result, the market has almost not noticed the growth of API Oil Recourses by 1.76 million barrel.

Support and resistance

The indicators reflect that the price can grow to the levels of 71.87 (Murray [6/8]) and 73.43 (Murray [7/8]): Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are pointed upwards; MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The consolidation of the price below the level of 70.31 can lead to the correction to the area of 68.75 (Murray [4/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 67.18.
Resistance levels: 71.87, 73.43.
Support levels: 70.31, 68.75, 67.96.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current level with the targets at 71.87, 73.43 and stop loss 70.30.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 70.00 with the targets at 68.75, 67.96 and stop loss 70.40.

LiteForex: NZD/USD: technical analysis

NZD/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is growing along the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is approaching the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is testing its strong resistance.

NZD/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is testing from above its longer MA, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price. The Composite keeps testing its longer MA from below.

Key levels

Support levels: 0.7350 (March highs), 0.7300 (local lows), 0.7265 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 0.7405 (November 2016 highs), 0.7435 (February highs), 0.7520 (July 2017 highs).

Trading tips

The price is approaching the upper border of a descending channel. There is a chance of a downward rebound.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7350, 0.7300, 0.7265 and stop-loss at 0.7410.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7435 with the target at 0.7520 and stop-loss at 0.7405.

LiteForex: USD/JPY: Murray analysis

On the daily chart, it is seen that since February, the pair is trading within the central Murray channel 104.68–107.81 ([3/8]–[5/8]). Now the price is ready to test its upper border. In case of success, it can grow to the levels of 108.60 ([6/8], H4) and 109.37 ([6/8]). Otherwise, the correction to the levels of 106.25 ([4/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), 105.50 ([–2/8], H4) can develop.
Technical indicators support the growth роста. Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are reversing upwards, MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone. Worth noting, that the fundamental factors are playing the significant role in the market. Any tightening of the US-China trade conflict can cause a downwards correction despite the buy signals of the indicators.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 107.81 ([5/8]), 108.60 ([6/8], H4), 109.37 ([6/8]).
Support levels: 106.25 ([4/8]), 105.50 ([–2/8], H4), 104.68 ([3/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 107.81 with the targets at 108.60, 109.47 and stop loss near the level of 107.35.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 107.00 with the targets at 106.25, 105.50 and stop loss near the level of 107.40.

LiteForex: GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

On Tuesday, the pair attempted a downward correction after the publication of mixed data from the UK labor market.
In February, the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, which is the lowest level since 1975. In turn, the wage (with premiums) growth remained at the same level of 2.8% (3MoY), while an increase to 3.0% was expected. Thus, the wages growth still did not exceed the inflation rate, which in February was 2.9% (3MoY). Nevertheless, investors have hope that BoE will increase the interest rate in May, given that the regulator's representatives expect to accelerated increase in average wages due to lower unemployment.
Yesterday's meeting of the British Parliament did not entail significant consequences for the government of Theresa May. The deputies criticised hard the prime minister's decision not to consult with them before striking a missile strike on Syria. Perhaps a law will be passed banning such actions of the government.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price reached the January highs at around 1.4343. If the instrument is consolidated above this level, growth may continue to 1.4400 (Murray [8/8]) and 1.4465 (Murray [+1/8]) marks.
However, technical indicators still allow correction. On H4 chart, Stochastic left the overbought zone, and is going to do this on D1. A serious decrease will be possible only if the instrument is consolidated below the 1.4282 mark (Murray [6/8]) and the midline of Bollinger Bands. Then, the decline is possible to the levels of 1.4221 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.4160 (Murray [4/8]).
Support levels: 1.4282, 1.4221, 1.4160.
Resistance levels: 1.4343, 1.4400, 1.4465.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from 1.4360 mark with targets at 1.4400, 1.4465 and stop-loss at 1.4330.
Short positions may be opened from 1.4265 mark with targets at 1.4221, 1.4160 and stop-loss at 1.4295.

LiteForex: EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Today, the pair made a slight attempt to correct after the publication of weak data on inflation in the Eurozone. In March, the basic consumer price index remained unchanged at 1.0% and the general consumer price index was below forecasts amounting to 1.3%.
However, EUR is playing out the positions, which is fueled by fears ща rising tensions in the US-China trade conflict. On Tuesday, it became known that Washington introduced a ban on the supply of American goods and technology to ZTE, the second largest Chinese manufacturer of telecommunications equipment and mobile phones. This is a very sensitive blow for the company, which could lead to bankruptcy in the future. Currently, 25-30% of components in ZTE products are manufactured in the US, and mobile phones use Google’s Android OS. Probably, this decision of the US will have consequences: The PRC's Ministry of Commerce has already stated that it will defend the interests of Chinese companies, but specific response measures have not been announced so far.

Support and resistance

In the near future, the instrument can resume growth, seeking to return to the central Murray channel (1.2390-1.2512). This is evidenced by MACD histogram growing in the positive zone and Stochastic reversing upwards.
The level of 1.2329 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is seen as key for the "bears". In case of its breakdown, the price may continue to decline to the area of 1.2207 (Murray [0/8], the bottom line of Bollinger Bands).
Support levels: 1.2329, 1.2207.
Resistance levels: 1.2390, 1.2451, 1.2512.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above the level of 1.2390 with targets at 1.2451, 1.2512 and stop-loss at 1.2350.
Short positions will become relevant if the instrument consolidates below 1.2329 with the target at 1.2207 and stop-loss at 1.2370.

LiteForex: USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

JPY is going down against USD due to Tuesday’s mixed Japanese data releases. Import level decreased to –0.6% in March from 16.6% in the previous month. Export didn’t meet the expectations of 4.7% and reached 2.1% in March against 1.8% in the previous month. Trade Balance grew to 797.3 billion JPY in March from 2.6 billion JPY in the previous month.
The meeting of the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Donald Trump in Florida haven’t brought great results. At the closing press conference, it was stated that the parties are ready to restart the trade negotiations. America is trying to decrease the trade balance deficit with Japan, which now is 56.1 billion USD. Abe did not achieve the abolition or postponing of US steel and aluminum fees implementation.
On Friday, the investors are waiting for Japanese March inflation data release. The National Consumer Price Index is expected to decrease from 1.5% to 1.1%, and base CPI from 1.0% to 0.9%. In this scenario, JPY will be affected negatively.

Support and resistance

Key “bullish” level is 107.81 (Murray [6/8]), after the breakout the growth to the levels of 108.59 (Murray [7/8]) and 109.37 (Murray [8/8]) is possible. After the breakdown of the level of 107.00 (Murray [5/8]) the downward correction can develop to the level of 106.25 (Murray [4/8]). However, technical indicators reflect the growth. Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards, MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, and Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards.
Resistance levels: 107.81, 108.59, 109.37.
Support levels: 107.00, 106.25.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 107.81 with the targets at 108.59, 109.37 and stop loss near the level of 107.40.
Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 107.00 with the target at 106.25 and stop loss near the level of 107.40.
The price can reach the target levels within a week.

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: Mark Carney disappointed investors

Current trend

On Thursday, after a weak attempt for growth, the pair has been sharply adjusted and is currently trading at around 1.4038.
Investors were disappointed by the comments of the Bank of England's head Mark Carney, who noted that the increase in the interest rate depends on the final deal on Brexit. Carney also noted the weakness of recent data on retail sales and too rapid reduction of inflation. All this has caused investors to doubt that BoE will decide to raise the rate in May, although the probability persists.
Additional pressure on the pound was provided by EU representatives who rejected all proposals of the British party on the Irish border. The question on the border between Northern Ireland, part of the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member, is now considered the most important in the negotiations. Both parties agree that the physical border should not exist here after Brexit, but they can not decide how to monitor the trade and movement of citizens.

Support and resistance

Currently, the instrument is testing the 1.4038 mark (Murray [3/8]) and, in its breakdown, may continue to decline to the levels of 1.3960-1.3916 (the bottom line of Bollinger Bands, Murray [2/8]). This is confirmed by indicators: Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone. After the breakout of 1.4100 mark (Murray [4/8], H4), the growth can continue to 1.4160 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.4221 (Murray [5/8], H4) marks.
Support levels: 1.4038, 1.3960, 1.3916.
Resistance levels: 1.4100, 1.4160, 1.4221.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below the level of 1.4038 with targets at 1.3960, 1.3916 and stop-loss at 1.4080.
Long positions may be opened above the level of 1.4100 with targets at 1.4160, 1.4221 and stop-loss at 1.4070.

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: Murrey analysis

On D1 chart, the price has fixed above the level of 108.60 ([7/8]) and can continue rising to levels of 109.37 ([8/8]) and 110.15 ([+1/8]). However, the instrument going out the upper line of Bollinger Bands and Stochastic in the overbought zone show the possibility of the beginning of the downward correction to the levels of 107.81 ([6/8]) and 107.03 ([5/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands). Other indicators show continued growth: MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Bollinger Bands are directed upwards. Generally, a temporary correction is possible within the existing uptrend.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 108.60 ([7/8]), 107.81 ([6/8]), 106.25 ([5/8]).
Resistance levels: 109.37 ([8/8]), 110.15 ([+1/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from 108.40 mark with targets at 107.81, 106.25 and stop-loss at 108.80.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 109.00 with targets at 109.37, 110.15 and stop-loss at 108.70.
Implementation time: 3-4 days.

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the pair tried to enter the upward correction. It is now trading around 1.3960. The pound is supported by a reduction in public sector borrowing. In March, the indicator was –0.262 billion pounds. Thus, Chancellor Hammond continues the policy of reducing government spending and borrowing, which began after the referendum on Brexit.
The investors are focused on Brexit negotiations. The main discussion goes within the British government and the Parliament, which is persuading Theresa May to let the UK stay in the Customs Union, while a number of key ministers, including David Davis and Boris Johnson, insists on the immediate leaving it. Today Brexit Minister Davis again claimed that after leaving Customs Union, UK will benefit a lot and can increase the country’s share in the world trade. He also noted that after the end of Brexit process, a number of bilateral trade agreements can be made with different counties, for example, with Canada.

Support and resistance

Technical picture is mixed. In case of the breakdown of the level of 1.3916 (Murray [2/8]), the price can fall to the levels of 1.3793 (Murray [1/8]) and 1.3671 (Murray [0/8]), which is confirmed by MACD, ready to enter the negative zone, and Bollinger Bands, reversing downwards. However, Stochastic is reversing in the oversold area, so a correction can develop to the middle line of Bollinger Bands to the area of 1.4090 or 1.4160 (Murray [4/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.4090, 1.4160.
Support levels: 1.3916, 1.3793, 1.3671.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.4000 with the targets at 1.4090 and 1.4160 and stop loss near the level of 1.3960.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3916 with the targets at 1.3793, 1.3671 and stop loss around 1.3950.