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LiteForex:GBP/USD: general analysis
Current trend
At the beginning of the week, the pair grew and has now reached the level of 1.3885, increased by 0.66%.
The market reacted positively to Friday’s speech of UK Prime Minister Theresa May, who noted that none of the Brexit parties would receive all it wanted, but the deal can be made. She also voices a range of British trading offers, including the implementation of an independent arbitral tribunal on trade disputes to replace European court. UK Markit Services PMI release was strong. In February the indicator grew from 53.0 to 54.5 points.
The further movement depends on Friday’s releases of UK January industrial production data and US February employment market statistics.
Support and resistance
The price is now tending to the key level of 1.3916 (the middle of the Murray trading range [4/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands for D1. In case if its breakout the instrument can grow to the levels of 1.3977 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.4038 (Murray [6/8]). Otherwise, the correction to the levels of 1.3793 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), 1.3732 (Murray [1/8], the lower border of Bollinger Bands) is possible. However, the growth seems likely, as Bollinger Bands have reversed upwards, and MACD histogram is ready to enter the positive zone and form a buy signal.
Support levels: 1.3855, 1.3793, 1.3732.
Resistance levels: 1.3916, 1.3977, 1.4038.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3916 with the targets at 1.3977, 1.4038 and stop loss 1.3880.
Short positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3855 with the targets at 1.3793, 1.3732 and stop loss 1.3880.
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LiteForex:EUR/USD: upward trend strengthens
Current trend
EUR again dominates against the dollar.
After a significant correction from the local maximum of 1.2555, the euro dropped to the level of 1.2150, but, failing to consolidate below this level, the pair fought back and headed up. Since March 1, EUR has significantly strengthened. The main catalysts for growth were a decrease in demand for the dollar and a favorable fundamental background for the Eurozone.
Today, the upward momentum remained on the confirmation of the forecasts for the growth rates of the Eurozone for Q4 2017. At the end of this week, attention should be paid to the US labor market and trade balance. The fastest reaction of the pair may be to data on Nonfarm Payrolls and on unemployment in the US.
Support and resistance
In the short term, the upward trend remains: the pair can grow up to the level of 1.2500 or to the local maximum of February (1.2555). In the future, much will depend on the trading moods, which will be formed in view of fundamental releases, mainly from the United States. In the case of weak data on the change in the number of people employed in non-agricultural industries and the unemployment rate, the dollar will lose significantly in investor support. The main scenario is the formation of an upward wave with a target of 1.2555 and a high probability of testing new highs.
Technical indicators confirm the outlook: MACD shows a quick growth in the volume of long positions, Bollinger Bands are pointing up.
Support levels: 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2330, 1.2290, 1.2280, 1.2225, 1.2175, 1.2150.
Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2520, 1.2535, 1.2555, 1.2585, 1.2630, 1.2700.
Trading tips
In this situation, long positions may be opened with targets at 1.2555, 1.2700 and stop-loss at 1.2330.
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LiteForex: CAC: technical analysis
CAC, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is growing, having broken out its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.
CAC, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI is testing its strong resistance in the overbought zone. The Composite is forming a Bearish divergence with the price.
Key levels
Support levels: 5265.0 (November 2017 lows), 5230.0 (August 2017 highs), 5170.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 5375.0 (local highs), 5425.0 (local highs), 5450.0 (local highs).
Trading tips
There is a high chance of a downward reverse.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 5265.0 with targets at 5230.0, 5170.0 and stop-loss at 5305.0.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 5375.0 with targets at 5425.0, 5450.0 and stop-loss at 5340.0.
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LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review
Current trend
Today Brent Crude Oil is trying to recover after falling to 64.00 mark on Monday.
The instrument was pressured by the EIA report, according to which the volume of shale oil production in the US will continue to grow: in March, it could increase to 6.82 million barrels per day, and in April –to 6.95 million barrels. New wells drilling is growing, too (by 110 units in February), which may create further expansion of production.
Long-term pressure on the market can be exerted by the actual failure of negotiations between OPEC representatives and US shale companies during the CERAWeek. According to Bijan Zangeneh from Iran the situation is so serious that the cartel may start withdrawal from the OPEC+ agreement at the June meeting. This emergency measure should help limit the shale boom in the US and allow traditional exporters to maintain their market share.
Support and resistance
The instrument is in the midline of Bollinger Bands around 64.50. Investors are waiting for the publication of API report on US oil reserves. In case of an increase, quotes can go down to 63.28 (Murrey [1/8], the bottom line of Bollinger Bands) and 62.50 (Murrey [0/8]) marks. Otherwise, the targets for growth will be the 65.62 (Murrey [4/8], the upper line of Bollinger Bands) and 66.40 (Murrey [5/8]) marks.
Indicators illustrate the uncertainty of the market. Bollinger Bands are located horizontally. MACD histogram is at the zero line, its volumes are insignificant. Stochastic is reversing downwards.
Support levels: 64.06, 63.28, 62.50.
Resistance levels: 64.84, 65.62, 66.40.
Trading tips
Long positions may be opened above the level of 64.84 with targets at 65.62, 66.40 and stop-loss at 64.30.
Short positions will become relevant below 64.06 with targets at 63.28 and 62.50 and stop-loss at 64.50.
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LiteForex: EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
On Thursday US dollar weakened and reached the level of 1.2410 (+0.58%).
American currency is under pressure of US poor inflation data. In February CPI decreased from 0.5% to 0.2% MoM, and Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy fell from 0.3% to 0.2% MoM. The YoY CPI Ex Food & Energy, which determines Fed’s interest rate decision, stayed on the level of 1.8%. All the factors can make the regulator postpone the tightening of monetary policy.
The investors are concerned about the resignation of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and assignment of Michael Pompeo to this post. The change is possibly made as a preparation for the trading war with China, as Pompeo supports Trump in this question actively. According to Reuters, the US administration is considering the implementation of fees on the Chinese goods amounting around 60 billion USD per year.
Today the pair is in the downward correction after commentaries of Mario Draghi, who again noted that ECB policy would stay the same until the inflation reached the target level. EU Industrial Production data also affected the euro negatively. In January the index went down by 1.0%. Today the market is focused on US Retail Sales release, which is expected to be strong and strengthen USD.
Support and resistance
The price is now tending to the level of 1.2329 (Murray [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), the breakout of which will let the instrument decrease to the levels of 1.2268 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.2207 (Murray [5/8]). The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.2400 will let the price grow to the area of 1.2451 (Murray [8/8]) and 1.2512 (Murray [+2/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.2400, 1.2451, 1.2512.
Support levels: 1.2329, 1.2268, 1.2207.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.2329 with the targets at 1.2268, 1.2207 and stop loss at у 1.2370.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2400 with the targets at 1.2451, 1.2512 and stop loss at 1.2380.
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LiteForex: GBP/USD: general review
Current trend
On Wednesday, the pair was trading near the level of 1.3977, but today it is making an attempt to decrease, having lowered to 1.3916 mark.
USD is strengthening in view of a possible easing of banking regulation in the US. Dodd-Frank Act was adopted in 2010 after the global financial crisis. It significantly restricted the trading of banks in the stock market, banned investing in hedge funds more than 3% of bank's capital, and trading in the foreign exchange market. A new bill, approved by the Senate, allows banks with assets of less than USD 10 billion to trade on the exchange using their own funds. In addition, banks with a capital capacity of more than USD 250 billion will be subject to strict supervision (rather than current USD 50 billion) .
The political crisis between Britain and Russia did not affect the market, because the volume of trade between the countries is insignificant.
Support and resistance
Now the instrument tends to 1.3916 mark (the middle of Murrey commercial range [4/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), which seems to be key. If it breaks down, the decline may continue to the levels of 1.3793 (Murrey [2/8], H4) and 1.3671 (Murrey [0/8]). In case of a price rebound and consolidation above 1.3977 mark, growth may resume to the levels of 1.4038 (Murrey [6/8], H4) and 1.4160 (Murrey [2/8]).
The possibility of a decrease is more probable, as Stochastic is reversing down in the overbought zone.
Support levels: 1.3916, 1.3793, 1.3671.
Resistance levels: 1.3977, 1.4038, 1.4160.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened below 1.3916 mark with targets at 1.3793, 1.3671 and stop-loss at 1.3960.
After the breakout of 1.3977 mark long positions may be opened with targets at 1.4038, 1.4160 and stop-loss at 1.3940.
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LiteForex: USD/JPY: Murray analysis
On the daily chart, the price is falling towards the strong level of 105.46 ([–1/8]), which it has been testing unsuccessfully during the last year. The consolidation of the price below it can let the price decrease further to the area of 104.68 ([-2/8]) and 103.90 ([-2/8], H4). The key “bullish” level is 106.25 ([0/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), the breakout of it will let the instrument grow to the area of 107.80 ([2/8]) 108.60 ([3/8]). Technical indicators reading are mixed. On the one hand, Bollinger Bands confirms the long-term downward trend. However, the decrease of MACD in the negative zone and the strength of the level 105.46 reflect the possibility of reversal and the upward correction of the price. In general, the position should be opened with care.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 105.46 ([–1/8]), 104.68 ([–2/8]), 103.90 ([–2/8], H4).
Resistance levels: 106.25 ([0/8]), 107.80 ([2/8]), 108.60 ([3/8]).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the reversal of the price around of the level 105.46 or above the level of 106.26 with the targets at 107.80, 108.60 and stop loss 105.10 and 105.90 correspondingly.
Short positions can be opened only if the price is set below the level of 105.46 with the targets at 104.68, 103.90 and stop loss at у 105.80.
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LiteForex: EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
Friday’s US building market data were poor. In February, Building Permits indicator decreased from 1.377 million до 1.298 million, and Housing Starts fell from 1.329 million to 1.236 million. However, thanks to the positive US Industrial Production index, which increased by 1.1% in February, USD closed the week in a green zone and reached the level of 1.2260 against EUR.
Today the price grew to the level of 1.2298, but no significant movement of the pair is expected in the nearest future. The market is waiting for Fed’s interest rate decision and especially for the new head of the regulator Jerome Powell’s following commentaries. At the end of February in his speech in Congress, he gave some hints that the interest rate could be increased four times this year instead of three times due to the economic growth, which exceeded the expectations. However, the recent poor data (the growth of unemployment by 4.1% and the decrease of CPI from 0.5% to 0.2%) may make him change his mind.
Support and resistance
Technically the price entered the middle Murray channel and decreased below the level of 1.2329 ([5/8]). It can fall further to the levels of 1.2207 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.2150. However, Stochastic is trying to reverse in the oversold area and can form a buy signal in the nearest future. In this case, the price can grow to the level of 1.2451 (Murray [6/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.2329, 1.2451.
Support levels: 1.2207, 1.2150, 1.2085.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 1.2329 with the target at 1.2451 and stop loss at 1.2290.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2260 with the targets at 1.2207, 1.2150 and stop loss at around 1.2290.
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LiteForex: GBP/USD: general analysis
Current trend
On Monday it was learned that the treaty, regulating the exit of the UK from EU, is mostly negotiated, which supported GBP significantly. The transitional period will last from March 29, 2019, until December 2020. During the period the UK will honor all the treaties and regulations of EU, but would not participate in negotiations and new decision-making. The question upon the Irish border is still open. In general, the European Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier and British Brexit Minister David Davis agreed that the treaty is the decisive step on the way to the end of the civilized process of the countries’ divorce.
However, today’s UK inflation data disappointed the traders. According to Mark Carney’s forecast, the peak of CPI growth was last November, and since that time the index has been decreasing and in February reached the level of 2.7% YoY. Investors suppose that the decrease in the inflation can let the Bank of England postpone the interest rate rise indefinitely. As a result, the pair was corrected from 1.4085 to the level of 1.4010.
On Wednesday, the market is focused on Fed’ meeting. Jerome Powell’s hints that there can be four increasing of the rate instead of three this year can raise the volatility significantly.
Support and resistance
Now the price is tending to the level of 1.3977 (Murray [6/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands). In case of the breakdown, the price can fall to the levels of 1.3916 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.3855 (Murray [2/8]). However, the reversal and growth to the levels of 1.4100 (Murray [+2/8]) and 1.4160 (Murray [2/8], D1) seem more likely.
Resistance levels: 1.4100, 1.4160.
Support levels: 1.3977, 1.3916, 1.3855.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.3977 or 1.4038 with the targets at 1.4100, 1.4160 and stop loss at 1.3950 and 1.4000 correspondingly.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level 1.3977 with the targets at 1.3916, 1.3855 and stop loss at 1.4010.
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LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review
Current trend
Brent Crude oil rose yesterday almost by 2%, reaching three-week highs.
The cause for growth was the increased geopolitical tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The visit of Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman to the United States, during which the discussion of the introduction of new restrictive measures against Iran's oil market aimed at reducing exports, supported the market as a whole. Also, the growth was due to the decline in oil production in Venezuela and the reduction in oil reserves in the US (by 2.739 million barrels, according to the API report).
Support and resistance
On the H4 chart, the instrument grows along the upper line of Bollinger Bands, the price range is widened, which indicates a possible continuation of the uptrend. MACD histogram is in the positive area keeping a signal for the opening of long positions.
Support levels: 67.18, 66.98, 66.74, 66.35, 66.10.
Resistance levels: 68.34, 69.25, 69.92, 70.35, 70.77.
Trading tips
Long positions may be opened from the current level with the target at 68.30 and stop-loss at 67.50. Implementation time: 1–3 days.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 66.98 with the target at 66.35 and stop-loss at 67.30. Implementation time: 3–5 days.
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