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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 9, 2025



On Tuesday, the euro attempted a downward move but failed to reach support at the MACD line, stopping at the target level of 1.1692. The day closed with a white candlestick, increasing the likelihood of a price rebound toward retesting the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1830.

For a downward continuation, the price must settle below the support reached yesterday and also below the MACD line. However, this would require at least two more days. On Friday, a large batch of data is expected from the UK, meaning that the key developments are likely to unfold next week. Trump has postponed the introduction of tariffs from July 9 to August 1.

On the four-hour chart, a convergence has formed. The likelihood of a rise toward 1.1830 now has more technical justification. The MACD line near the 1.1771-mark acts as interim resistance—if this level is broken, the main target will be automatically unlocked.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 14, 2025



Friday's candlestick for the EUR/USD pair closed bearish, with the price consolidating below the daily MACD line. The objective for today is to secure a close below the 1.1692 level. To achieve this, the daily candle must close below that level. The Marlin oscillator has not yet entered negative territory, but visually it is expected to do so tomorrow. Therefore, today is expected to be calm.

A firm break below 1.1692 opens the path toward the target at 1.1535. A correction is expected from that support level, followed by a move toward the second target at 1.1420. If the price consolidates above Friday's high of 1.1714, it will also move back above the MACD line. This would briefly open an alternative scenario with growth toward the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1832.

On the four-hour chart, Marlin is entering positive territory, but price action remains below the balance indicator line, which empirically suggests sellers still dominate. The pair will likely remain in a sideways trend today with downside pressure ahead of tomorrow's U.S. inflation data.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for July 15, 2025



Following a rebound from the support level at 146.11, the USD/JPY pair has reached the upper line of the wedge pattern on the daily chart and is now targeting the 148.66 resistance level (the May 12 high).

A consolidation above this level would open the path toward 151.30. This scenario is plausible, as Japan is set to hold parliamentary elections (upper house) on July 20, and according to voter polls, the ruling coalition may lose its majority. This raises the risk of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation. Today, U.S. June inflation data will be released. The CPI is expected to rise from 2.4% y/y to 2.6% y/y, which also supports the dollar's strength against the yen.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is consolidating along the zero line. Given the local upward trend, this indicates a strengthening bullish momentum.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – July 17: U.S. Inflation Will Only Accelerate

The EUR/USD currency pair traded more calmly on Wednesday than it had on Tuesday, remaining relatively stable until the evening. There were no major fundamental or macroeconomic events in either the Eurozone or the U.S. throughout the day. We believe that even the U.S. inflation report published on Tuesday can no longer be considered highly significant under current conditions. More precisely, it remains important, but its influence on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is no longer as significant as it once was. The Fed remains firm in its stance: first, it needs to understand how the finalized tariffs will affect key macroeconomic indicators, then it will make a decision on the key interest rate. Over the past three months, Jerome Powell has seemed to do little else besides publicly discuss inflation. The Fed Chair has repeatedly warned that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is bound to rise if import prices increase by 20–30–40%. Especially when it comes to commodities and metals, which cannot be replaced as easily as consumer goods, now that June has arrived, we are indeed witnessing a rise in inflation. The CPI increased from 2.4% to 2.7% in June. This may not seem like a dramatic jump, but let us highlight two important points. First, Trump's tariffs began to influence inflation in June because, prior to that, American businesses had stockpiled goods at old prices for several months ahead and had neither raised prices nor placed new foreign orders. Therefore, the rise in June inflation is just the beginning. Second, on a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.3%, which translates to an annualized rate of 3.6%. Powell and his colleagues suggest that the inflationary shock might be short-lived and that consumer prices may "stabilize" once final tariff rates are set. But what kind of stabilization can we expect when Donald Trump has signed only 3 out of 75 trade agreements, has prepared new tariff hikes for 24 countries starting August 1, and introduced 50% tariffs on pharmaceuticals and copper? This means that average U.S. import tariffs will rise even further from August 1, and even those will not be final. So, if inflation is already acceler

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