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Wave Analysis by InstaForex

This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 23rd (analysis of morning deals). The pound ...

      
   
  1. #1651
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 23rd (analysis of morning deals). The pound continues to decline



    In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.2388 level and planned to make decisions on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The growth and formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.2388 led to a sell signal for the pound, which resulted in a drop in the pair by more than 30 points. In the afternoon, the technical picture was revised.

    To open long positions on GBP/USD, it is required: The strong data on activity in the UK services sector and the weak report on the reduction in manufacturing activity were received positively, since the British economy is still based more on services. This provoked purchases of the pound, but the euphoria did not last long. The growth was perceived by sellers as an excellent entry point into short positions. In the afternoon, there is a lot of data related to activity in the American economy, so there should be movement. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, the index of business activity in the service sector and the composite PMI index will be the warm-up, after which figures on home sales in the primary market and the Fed-Richmond manufacturing index will be released. Strong data will lead to a larger sell-off of the pound on trend, so be careful with purchases. In the case of a decline in the pair, much will depend on the behavior of traders at the level of 1.2340, where only the formation of a false breakdown will give an entry point to buy in order to grow to the resistance of 1.2383 formed at the end of the first half of the day. A breakout and a top-down test of this range will return the chance of a GBP/USD recovery, which will lead to new purchases and allow you to get to 1.2432. In the case of an exit above this range, we can talk about a breakthrough to 1.2482, where I'm going to fix profits. In the scenario of a fall in GBP/USD and the absence of buyers at 1.2340 in the afternoon, sellers will regain control of the market, having the opportunity to continue a major drop in the pair further along the trend. In this case, I will look for purchases in the area of 1.2301. The formation of a false breakdown there will be a suitable option for entering the market. It is possible to open long positions on GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.2265 in order to correct 30-35 points within a day. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The bears have every chance to continue the pair's decline. To do this, you need to protect the new resistance of 1.2383, where the moving averages are located slightly lower, playing on their side. The formation of a false breakdown there will make sure that large sellers are present in the market, which, together with strong data, will lead to a further fall in GBP/USD and an excellent entry point into short positions in order to test the nearest resistance of 1.2340. A breakout and a reverse test from the bottom up of this range will increase the pressure on the pair, giving the bears an advantage and another entry point to sell with the aim of updating 1.2301. The ultimate target will be a minimum of 1.2265, where I will take a profit. In the event of GBP/USD's rise and absence of bears at 1.2383 in the second half of the day, bulls will have the opportunity to build a good correction with upward movement towards the resistance at 1.2432. I will also sell there only on a false breakout. If there is no activity there either, I suggest opening short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2482, counting on a pair's rebound downwards by 30-35 points within the day.


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  2. #1652
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 24th (US session)

    Trade analysis and advice on trading the Japanese yen In line with our usual trading approach, there were no tests of the levels I indicated in the first half of the day near the annual maximum, which prevented entry into the market. Traders betting on the rise of the dollar are increasingly adhering to a strategy of buying on declines from good and solid levels, as only some believe in breaking the annual maximum and significant growth after that. I advise you to do the same, especially since there are no forthcoming statistics capable of leading to breakthroughs in maximums. Data on changes in US durable goods orders is expected, and that's about it. So, trading within the channel and buying on downward slips will be the most relevant option. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenario #2.

    Buy Signal Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 154.98 (green line on the chart), with the target of rising to the level of 155.15 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 155.15, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Counting on the pair's rise today will only work after very strong US statistics. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.87 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 154.98 and 155.15. Sell Signal Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the level of 154.87 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 154.65, where I will exit sales and also immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of an unsuccessful breakout of the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decrease from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.98 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downwards. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.87 and 154.65.

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  3. #1653
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. April 25th. Bulls continue to advance and expect a weak US GDP report

    The EUR/USD pair made a new turnaround in favor of the European currency on Wednesday, consolidating above the corrective level of 100.0%-1.0696. Thus, the growth process may continue today towards the next Fibonacci level at 76.4% (1.0764). The ascending trend channel characterizes the current sentiment of traders as bullish, but I remind you that the bearish trend persists. Consolidation of the pair's rate below the corridor will favor the US currency and resume the decline of the euro.

    The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave (from April 2), while the new upward wave is still too weak to break the last peak from April 9. Thus, we are dealing with a bearish trend, and at the moment, there is no sign of its completion. For such a sign to appear, the new upward wave needs to break the peak of the previous wave (from April 9). Alternatively, the next downward wave should fail to break the last low from April 16. Until then, the bears will maintain the advantage. The information background on Wednesday needed to be more formal for traders. The report on durable goods orders in the US showed an increase of 2.6% in March against market expectations of +2.5%. Orders excluding transportation increased by 0.2% against forecasts of +0.3%. Orders excluding defense increased by 0.2% against market expectations of +0.2%. Thus, all three reports, which could prompt traders to trade more actively, had little impact on their sentiment. Today, we await the US GDP report for the first quarter, which may suffer the same fate as yesterday's publications.

    In the last reporting week, speculators opened 3493 long contracts and 23992 short contracts. The sentiment of the "non-commercial" group remains bullish but continues to weaken rapidly. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 179,000, while short contracts amount to 167,000. The situation will continue to change in favor of bears. In the second column, we see that the number of short positions increased from 92,000 to 167,000 over the last 3 months. Over the same period, the number of long positions decreased from 211,000 to 179,000. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need strong information to resume the bullish trend. However, the information background has only been supporting bears lately. The European currency could have lost much more ground in recent weeks.


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  4. #1654
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. April 26th. Bulls continue to advance after the GDP report

    The EUR/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the corrective level of 100.0%-1.0696 and resumed its upward movement towards the corrective level of 76.4%-1.0764. The ascending trend channel continues to characterize the current market sentiment as "bullish." Consolidation of quotes below the ascending corridor will change the market sentiment to "bearish" and may lead to a resumption of the pair's decline towards the level of 1.0619 and below.

    The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave (from April 2nd), and the new upward wave is still too weak to break the last peak from April 9th. Thus, we are dealing with a "bearish" trend, and at the moment, there is no sign of its completion. For such a sign to appear, the new upward wave needs to break the peak of the previous wave (from April 9th). If the next downward wave fails to break the last low from April 16th, this will also be a sign of a trend change to "bullish." Until then, the bears will maintain their advantage. The information background on Thursday was important and strong. Traders learned about the economic growth of the United States in the first quarter. It amounted to 1.6% quarter-on-quarter and 3.1% year-on-year. It is noteworthy that the quarterly GDP of the United States turned out to be significantly below traders' expectations, while the annual one was higher. Bears failed to benefit from this report, as the quarterly value is still slightly more important. The American economy continues to slow down for the second quarter in a row, and the pace of the slowdown is quite high. At this rate, by the end of the year, the US economy may show growth close to zero, as is currently happening in the UK and the EU. A reduction in the Federal Reserve rate will not happen anytime soon, so the US economy may continue to slow down.

    In the last reporting week, speculators opened 3493 long contracts and 23992 short contracts. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" but continues to weaken rapidly. The total number of Long contracts held by speculators now stands at 179 thousand, while Short contracts amount to 167 thousand. The situation will continue to change in favor of bears. In the second column, we see that the number of Short positions has increased from 92 thousand to 167 thousand over the past 3 months. During the same period, the number of Long positions decreased from 211 thousand to 179 thousand.


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  5. #1655
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 29th (analysis of morning deals). The pound continues to be bought at every opportunity


    In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.2510 level and planned to make decisions on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The decline and the formation of a false breakdown there after an unsuccessful attempt to gain a foothold below 1.2510 allowed us to get a buy signal, which resulted in a 30-point increase in the pair. In the afternoon, the technical picture was not revised.

    o open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: The lack of statistics for the UK helped the buyers of the pound to beat off 1.2510 and now let's see if they will be able to achieve an update to the weekly maximum or not. The reason for the low volatility in the afternoon will be the complete absence of any data on the United States and the impending meeting of the Federal Reserve System, which will be able to change the current "rules of the game". For this reason, it is not necessary to force events: the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2510, by analogy with the first half of the day, will give an entry point to buy in order to grow to the resistance of 1.2573. The moving averages also pass around 1.2510, so you can again count on the active actions of the bulls. A breakout and a top-down test of 1.2573 will give a chance for GBP/USD growth, which will allow you to reach 1.2621. In the case of an exit above this range, we can talk about a breakthrough to 1.2658, where I'm going to fix profits. A test of this level is unlikely today, but anything is possible in the market. In the scenario of a fall in GBP/USD and the absence of buyers at 1.2510 in the afternoon, the market will maintain balance, and trading will move within the framework of the side channel. In this case, I will look for purchases in the area of 1.2449. The formation of a false breakdown there will be a suitable option for entering the market. It is possible to open long positions on GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.2383 in order to correct 30-35 points within a day. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The bears still have a chance to continue to return to the pair's decline, but for this they need to take 1.2510, which they failed to do in the first half of the day. In case of further growth of the pair, I will postpone sales until the test of the new resistance of 1.2573, which buyers have been looking at with great interest for a long time. Only the formation of a false breakdown there will make sure that large sellers are present in the market, which will lead to a fall in GBP/USD to the area of 1.2510, where the moving averages are located. A breakout and a reverse test from the bottom up of this range will increase the pressure on the pair, giving the bears an advantage and another entry point to sell with the aim of updating 1.2449. The ultimate target will be the minimum of 1.2383, where I will take a profit. In the scenario of GBP/USD rising and the absence of bears at 1.2573 in the second half of the day, bulls will have the opportunity to continue building an upward trend with movement towards the resistance at 1.2621. I will only enter there on a false breakout. If there is no activity there either, I suggest opening short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2658, expecting a pair to rebound down by 30-35 points within the day.

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  6. #1656
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: trading tips for beginners for European session on May 2

    Overview of trading and tips on USD/JPY The price test of 157.61 at the beginning of the US session occurred at a time when the MACD indicator sharply fell from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell. The outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting, as you can see on the chart, was a big surprise for the dollar bulls, who were counting on a firm hawkish stance, which could have further weakened the Japanese yen due to the interest rate differential. However, it didn't happen, which resulted in heavy profit taking and a major USD/JPY sell-off. The bulls will probably continue to buy back yesterday's movement, but they will be cautious about it, as no one is safe from the next Bank of Japan currency intervention. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

    Buy signals Scenario No. 1. I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 155.56 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 156.20 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 156.20, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on USD/JPY's growth today in continuation of the upward trend. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it. Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 155.05 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 155.56 and 156.20. Sell signals Scenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 155.05 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 154.40, where I am going to exit short positions and also immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return in case of another central bank intervention. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it. Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 155.56 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downwards market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 155.05 and 154.40.

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  7. #1657
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for GBP/USD on May 6. Simple tips for beginners



    The GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Friday. As seen in the chart above, the price consolidated below the ascending trend line last week. At this point, the upward correction was supposed to end. However, a series of weak reports on the US labor market, unemployment, business activity, and job vacancies triggered a new and predictable decline in the US currency. We still believe that the fundamental background largely supports the dollar, while the pound's current rise is part of a corrective move. Therefore, we expect the global downward trend to resume. Over the past two weeks, economic data have disappointed the dollar, but this may not always be the case. The state of the British economy has been less than ideal for several years now. A bounce from the level of 1.2611 could mark the start of a new downward trend.



    An excellent buy signal was formed during the European trading session, although the pair remained relatively unchanged throughout the session. However, significantly weaker-than-expected US macro data prompted a rise, which traders needed. In the afternoon, the range of 1.2605-1.2611 was tested, from which there was an imprecise rebound. This rebound could also have been interpreted as a signal, but this time it was for selling. However, it was difficult to say whether traders should have acted on it or not. It was also difficult to expect the dollar to rise with such weak US data. Nevertheless, those who opened short positions made profit, as the price returned to the range of 1.2541-1.2547 by the end of the day. Trading tips on Monday: On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has excellent prospects for forming a downward trend, but is currently going through a correction. This corrective phase has been quite strong. The fundamental backdrop continues to support the dollar much more than the British pound. Therefore, we only expect downward movement from the pair. On Monday, the market is in a flat state, and there's a high chance that it will be another "boring Monday". Investors may trade from the range of 1.2541-1.2547, but as mentioned, there's also a very high chance of a flat market. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2541-1.2547, 1.2605-1.2611, 1.2648, 1.2691, 1.2725, 1.2787-1.2791. Today, there are no scheduled events or reports in the UK and the US. Therefore, we don't expect strong movements today.


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  8. #1658
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. May 7th. The bulls are running out of strength

    The EUR/USD pair on Monday retraced to the resistance zone of 1.07851.0797, which is part of the larger resistance zone of 1.07641.0806. A bounce of quotes from this zone will favor the American currency and lead to a new decline towards the corrective level of 100.0% (1.0696). The ascending trend channel continues to characterize traders' sentiment as "bullish." The consolidation of the pair's rate above the level of 1.0806 will increase the likelihood of further growth towards the next Fibonacci level of 50.0%1.0840.

    The wave situation remains unchanged. The last downward wave failed to reach the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave had already broken the peak of the previous wave. Thus, a "bullish" trend has formed, but its prospects personally raise doubts for me. Over the past 2-3 weeks, the information background has supported bull traders, but will it continue to do so? This is a big question, as the economy of the European Union is not in the best shape, and the ECB is ready to start easing monetary policy much earlier than the Fed, already having a much lower interest rate. The information background on Monday was weak, and on Tuesday, it was even weaker. Neither yesterday nor today have we seen any attractive movements. Yesterday, it became known that the business activity index in the EU services sector was slightly above expectations 53.3. Today, the retail trade report will be released. However, neither of these reports is paramount for traders, so it is quite difficult to expect further growth in the euro today. I believe that after the formation of another upward wave, a downward wave should begin, which allows for the current trend channel and the nature of movement. The bulls will find it difficult to break through the zone of 1.07641.0806 on the first attempt. I expect the euro to decline this week.


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  9. #1659
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD. May 8th. The pound does not expect a rate cut by the Bank of England


    On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Tuesday and confirmed consolidation below the ascending trend channel. Bulls lost their advantage on the hourly chart, and bears continue to maintain it on the 4-hour chart. Thus, the British pound has every reason to continue falling against the dollar. The rebound of quotes from the Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.2464) allowed the pair to show a slight increase, but I expect consolidation below this level, which will allow counting on further decline towards the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2363).


    The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed upward wave did not surpass the peak of the previous wave, and the new downward wave is still too weak to break the low of April 22. Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair remains "bearish," and there are currently no signs of its completion. The first sign of bulls turning aggressive could be the breakthrough of the peak on May 3. A new downward wave, if it turns out to be weak and does not break the low of April 22, could also indicate a trend reversal. Waves in recent months have been quite large, so it is necessary to reduce the scale of the hourly chart to understand the current trend clearly. On Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, there was no news from the UK or the US. However, this Thursday, the Bank of England meeting will conclude, and this event could leave a mark on the GBP/USD pair charts. Currently, traders do not believe that the rate will be cut. There are no grounds for this. Inflation in the UK continues to decline, but it is still too high for the regulator to take action. Most likely, the easing of monetary policy will begin in the autumn of 2024, but only if inflation continues to slow down. And we know that the opposite could also happen, as is currently the case in the US. On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the level of 1.2620 and bounced off it. The upper line of the descending trend channel has been broken, but it is still not time to bury the "bearish" trend. This week, a decline towards the levels of 1.2450 and 1.2289 has begun. Consolidation of the pair's rate below the level of 1.2450 will increase the probability of further decline towards the next correction level of 50.0% (1.2289). There are no imminent divergences today.


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  10. #1660
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on May 10



    Overview of trading and tips on EUR/USD The price test of 1.0742 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, which confirmed the entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the EUR/USD pair rose by more than 30 pips. The absence of data and the Bank of England's decisions helped the euro rise in the second half of the day; however, the pair continued to trade within the range of a sideways channel, which could affect today's volatility. In the morning, we can only mention Italy's industrial production report and the minutes of the European Central Bank meeting, which means that the pair can still rise. But it is best to continue trading within the boundaries of the sideways channel, adhering to the necessary scenarios. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

    Scenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches 1.0787 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0816. At the level of 1.0816, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today only after very good data on Italy and soft minutes of the ECB meeting. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it. Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.0772 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0787 and 1.0816. Sell signals Scenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after EUR/USD reaches the level of 1.0772 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0745, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will increase if it fails to consolidate near the daily high. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it. Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0787 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.0772 and 1.0745.


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